The Syrian regime and opposition have been accusing each other of undermining the Anan plan, raising questions as to whether it can succeed in resolving the crisis, writes Bassel Oudat in Damascus The explosion that rocked the Syrian capital Damascus on 10 May was not only unprecedented in terms of its size and fatalities, but it was also a warning to the international community that the plan put together by UN and Arab League envoy Kofi Anan could still fail despite its being seen as possibly the last chance for the country to avoid catastrophe. The explosion took place on the outskirts of Damascus and killed 55 and injured some 400 people. It came one day after Anan had submitted his report on the situation in Syria to the UN Security Council, in which he said that the regime led by Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad had scaled back the use of heavy weapons against civilians, but that it was still using other forms of repression, including mass arrests. The plan, Anan said, "could be the last chance to avoid civil war" in Syria. It stipulates the withdrawal of the security forces, army and heavy artillery from Syrian cities, as well as the ending of violence against civilians and the release of prisoners. In the wake of last week's blast, the regime and opposition have been accusing each other of responsibility for the bombing, as well as for previous bombings in various Syrian cities that similarly used booby-trapped cars. For its part, the regime has accused Al-Qaeda and other terrorist elements it claims are funded and armed by Arab countries sympathetic to the Syrian uprising of responsibility. Meanwhile, the opposition has accused the regime of deliberately orchestrating the bombings in order to taint the Syrian uprising with terrorism and to frighten Syrians and the international community about the possible consequences of political change. According to the Syrian opposition, the regime has been seeking to convince the international community that it is fighting international terrorism, not a people revolting against dictatorship. It has furnished evidence which, it says, proves the regime's complicity in the bombing, and called on the UN to launch an investigation into the bombings in Syria. "The entire opposition supports the revolutionary youth's peaceful movement," Marwan Habash, a former Syrian minister and ruling Baath Party member, told Al-Ahram Weekly in an interview. "It denounces all forms of violence, irrespective of source or type. We also condemn all bombings and are the enemies of those who fund, plan or carry out such acts." In the light of the deteriorating security situation in Syria, some key international actors are already beginning to describe the Anan plan as having failed, notably given the mounting challenges on the domestic, regional, Arab and international fronts. Observers believe that bombings like the one that took place in Damascus last week should warn the western powers of the gravity of the situation in Syria, especially in the light of signals by US officials that Al-Qaeda may have infiltrated the country. Although one month has now passed since international monitors were sent into Syria under the Anan plan, the country's opposition and protesters say that conditions have deteriorated further. The security forces are carrying out acts of violence in full view of the monitors, they say, and the Anan plan may even have given the regime unwitting international cover. The harbingers of civil war are already to be seen in Syria, the opposition says, making it more urgent than ever that the regime be removed peacefully. "The conclusion Anan reached in his latest report in which he warned of civil war if the plan fails is an outcome which the opposition is well aware of," Mikhail Saad, an independent opposition figure, told the Weekly. "This message should be addressed to the regime, which has been undermining the plan because its success would spell its doom. Syrians knew from the beginning that the regime would not carry out genuine reforms, because even the slightest real reform would be its downfall. That is why we were certain that the regime would neither agree to the Arab initiative, or the international initiative led by Anan, which it has been trying to sabotage." "The regime has been referring to 'foreign parties that are funded and armed,' which is another way of saying either it remains in power or there will be civil war in Syria that could spill out into the region." The Anan plan does not specify a deadline for security and army forces to withdraw from Syrian cities, and it does not threaten penalties against the regime if it does not comply with the plan or release prisoners. Labelling the Anan plan a failure will be an ominous development for all Syrians, observers believe, since it will logically entail one of three options. Either Anan's predictions become reality and a long civil war breaks out in Syria that will destroy the state, society and people, or the failure of the plan will usher in foreign military intervention within or outside the Security Council, itself possibly leading to a protracted regional war, or the world will simply abandon the country and allow the regime to continue with its security crackdown. Thus far, the Anan plan is seen as the best way out of the crisis, with even the Syrian opposition, which believes the plan has already failed, being committed to any effort that reins in the violence. It is hoped that the first two points in the plan -- stopping the violence and withdrawing the army from the cities -- can be implemented in order for the other items to begin, including the release of prisoners, the legalisation of peaceful demonstrations, and dialogue between the opposition and the regime on political transition. "The opposition was not wrong to accept the Anan plan, although it was vague in many areas. The same stipulations were made in the Arab initiative, which the regime thwarted," George Sabra, spokesman for the opposition Syrian National Council (NSC) based outside Syria, explained. "We are sure the regime is incapable and unwilling to participate in any serious initiative because this would be its undoing. We want the regime to withdraw its security forces and army from the cities, release detainees, and allow peaceful demonstrations. One day of free peaceful demonstrations would be enough to destabilise the regime, and no firepower can deter a people from achieving its goals." According to Habash, "the violence in Syria is the inevitable consequence of the methods used in handling the crisis. It is a political crisis in essence, and it can only be resolved through political solutions and genuine sacrifices by the regime." "The peaceful people's revolution in Syria is a just and inevitable historical entitlement, and the Syrian masses are fighting against tyranny, oppression and corruption and for freedom, dignity, justice, equality and a pluralist society that respects all its members. They are trying to avoid denominational and sectarian conflicts in Syria that could result from the regime's policies of suppression and killing." Discussing possible solutions for the crisis that has so far led to the deaths of nearly 15,000 people, according to Syrian human rights monitors, Sabra said that "the solution is in the hands of the Syrian people. It is in the hands of the youth who continue to protest and make sacrifices. It is in the hands of the Free Syrian Army (FSA), which is becoming more and more empowered, even if the world remains silent or lets down the revolution for freedom and democracy in Syria." While they await the unknown, Syria's people continue to suffer. While the Anan plan has not ended the violence and the bloodshed, it may at least have bought time for the international community to reach a consensus to end the crisis.
