Syria has reversed its commitment to withdraw the army from the country's towns and cities and demanded guarantees from the opposition to end the violence, writes Bassel Oudat in Damascus Syria has backed down on its promise to implement the plan proposed by UN and Arab League envoy to the country former UN Secretary-General Kofi Anan, which stated that the regime led by Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad must withdraw the army and security forces from the country's towns and cities. On Sunday, two days before the deadline that Anan gave the regime to withdraw from the cities, Syria announced that the army would not withdraw without "written guarantees" to end the violence from the country's opposition, which the Syrian government has described as being infiltrated by "armed terrorist groups." The regime demanded that these groups surrender their weapons, also asking for guarantees from the governments of Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Turkey that they would stop any funding or arming of the groups. In a statement, the foreign ministry in Damascus said that Anan had "misunderstood" Syria's agreement to his plan and confirmed that the army would not withdraw because of concerns that terrorist groups would re-organise and take control of the country. Anan's plan contained six points, including the withdrawal of regime security forces from Syrian cities, the deployment of UN monitors, the release of political prisoners, the free entry of humanitarian aid, the legalisation of peaceful protests, and the launch of negotiations between the regime and the opposition under international supervision. The plan stipulated that the first point should be met by Tuesday, 10 April, with a truce beginning 48 hours later. The apparent about-turn by the regime, expected by the opposition, took the international community and Anan himself by surprise and set back attempts to end a conflict that has killed more than 12,000 people over the past year, according to Syrian opposition figures. Anan said he was shocked by the recent escalation in the violence and loss of life, and he expressed concern at the more than 100,000 refugees now camped out across the border in Turkey, Jordan and Lebanon and the more than one million displaced people inside Syria. European states condemned Syria's turnaround within hours of the Syrian government announcement, with the French foreign ministry denouncing what it called "continuing massacres" in Syria and describing the new demands by the regime as "unacceptable". Belgium's foreign minister said that humanitarian intervention on the ground in Syria under military protection had now become a necessity, and the German foreign ministry demanded the immediate delivery of humanitarian aid to Syria under international supervision. The leader of the opposition Free Syrian Army (FSA), Colonel Riyad Al-Asaad, said that the regime would not voluntarily implement the Anan plan and that it was doomed to failure. Al-Asaad said that the FSA, which includes tens of thousands of defectors from the regular Syrian army, had not been asked for written guarantees and that it had not given any. He rejected the idea of surrendering arms as long as the incumbent regime was in power. "Anan's being asked to deliver written guarantees that the opposition will lay down its arms is a joke and a mockery of the UN," said Qassem Saadeddin, an FSA spokesman inside Syria. Although the regime had reneged on its promises, the armed opposition would still adhere to a ceasefire on 10 April, as stated in the UN plan, Saadeddin said, warning that the FSA would nevertheless fight back if regime forces attacked. The opposition Syrian National Council (SNC), which brings together opposition groups abroad, condemned the regime's reneging on the Anan plan and urged the passage of a UN Security Council resolution under the organisation's Chapter 7 provisions on the protection of civilians. Abdel-Razeq Eid, head of the opposition group the Damascus Declaration, mocked the response of the Syrian regime to the Anan plan. "We all expected Anan's mission to fail, but we did not expect it to fail so absurdly," Eid said. "Perhaps an official of the regime will now declare that they had agreed with Anan to withdraw troops on 10 April but hadn't stated in which year!" "We are surprised that the international community has not sent a stronger message to the Syrian regime. The latter has been mocking the world community with its lies and deceptions." The opposition group Syrian National Change said that "counting on the Syrian regime to stop the violence is absurd, and it aids the genocide of the regime." The group demanded that the international community "stop proposing and supporting initiatives that have no value except to buy time for the regime." Observers believe that a written statement by the Syrian opposition and countries in the region that they will surrender arms and end the violence is an impossible demand. Such a document would be an admission of regime claims that the opposition is in fact carrying out terrorist acts and that other countries are supplying it with weapons. Opposition groups inside and outside Syria are convinced that the regime will not implement the Anan plan, saying that even if the regime agreed to it, it would conjure up endless obstacles as excuses for procrastination. Reporting on the obstacles facing the Anan plan before its implementation, the official Syrian media has been using the term "redeployment," instead of "withdrawal," of the army. This implies that the army would only withdraw to the outskirts of the cities and not return to barracks, which would mean that it would still be ready to re-invade. Under the plan, the regime was also supposed to allow peaceful demonstrations. If this happens, opposition figures say, hundreds of thousands of Syrians would take to the streets, representing a serious threat to the authorities and even the entire regime. Meanwhile, releasing tens of thousands of detainees would raise morale among the protesters, according to domestic opposition groups, causing those who are still undecided between the regime and the opposition to join the latter to the detriment of the regime and its supporters. The Syrian government says that it alone should be responsible for distributing humanitarian aid, though this has been criticised by opposition activists. Were the regime to be put in charge of aid distribution, such activists say, aid would be sold on the black market and would not reach those in need. According to the opposition, the Syrian regime intends to put ever greater obstacles in the way of the Anan plan, especially regarding possible dialogue with the opposition and the choice of those participating in it. Before any such dialogue can take place, opposition spokesman say, there must be a transition to a pluralist and democratic government, most likely through the establishment of a national unity government that would reform the country's security agencies, draft a new constitution, and be responsible for organising parliamentary and presidential elections. Meanwhile, the regime has been holding dialogue with chosen members of selected opposition groups, though this has not gone further than discussing reforms that the government has itself put forward. Most members of the opposition reject such talks, saying that they are delaying tactics designed to stymie genuine reform. According to Marwan Habash, an independent opposition figure, former Syrian government minister and former member of the regional leadership of the ruling Syrian Baath Party, "what the opposition at home doesn't want is to see the issue sent back to the UN Security Council, with a recommendation for foreign military intervention to impose security or buffer zones in Syria." Meanwhile, the SNC, representing the opposition outside the country, "will likely urge those who have declared themselves to be the 'Friends of Syria' and have recognised the SNC as the legitimate representative of the Syrian people to take military action under the pretext of protecting the Syrian people." Whatever happens, Habash said, "the bloodshed will continue, weapons will become more abundant, violence will escalate, causing more hatred, the numbers of the displaced will rise, and the economy will grind to a halt. As a result of the regime's refusal to deal seriously with the Anan proposals, the country will likely fall into the abyss." There are many signs that the regime is still convinced that a security crackdown is the best way to handle the situation, though it is also clear that the regime would find it difficult to change course even if it wanted to because of the dominance of hardliners in the state and party apparatus.
