Although the violence continues to escalate in Syria, reaching the heart of the capital, the opposition still believes that the regime's overthrow is guaranteed, writes Bassel Oudat Armed confrontations between forces loyal to the Syrian regime and the Free Syrian Army (FSA) made up of defectors from the army along with volunteers are now taking place in central Damascus, signalling a new escalation in the crisis in the country. The Al-Mazza district, one of the safest and best protected in the capital, was the scene of violent battles all night on Sunday between armed protesters and the security forces, with light and heavier weapons being used, including rockets. An unknown amount of damage was caused, together with many casualties. The Syrian government said that the security forces had raided a terrorist hideout and killed two men and injured three others, with one soldier also being killed. The local coordination committees leading the protests against the regime of Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad said that members of the FSA had attacked the regime's intelligence headquarters in the capital, with some 80 people being killed in the operation. Irrespective of the damage and the numbers killed on either side, the clashes represent a new development in the confrontations between the protesters and the regime. The Al-Mazza district of Damascus contains the houses of many government officials, as well as Arab and foreign embassies. It also contains the heavily guarded headquarters of the country's security agencies. After the Syrian army regained control of districts of the city of Homs last week, including Baba Amr, the security forces deployed in other Syrian cities and raided the strongholds of the protesters. Various other towns and villages were placed under a state of siege, and security cordons were established outside many cities as part of a continued military crackdown on the protests, which started one year ago. However, the regime's strategy of sending in the security forces to occupy towns and cities across the country has not been entirely successful. Last Friday, over 700 protests took place across Syria, the largest number so far, demanding the overthrow of the regime. Defections from the regular army have continued as more soldiers join the FSA, and the latter has sworn to bring the protests to the heart of the capital, until now viewed as an almost impenetrable fortress because of the heavy security presence. In addition to the fighting in Al-Mazza, an exchange of fire took place at Sahhat Arnous, a commercial centre of Damascus, while the districts of Al-Maydan, Nahr Aisha and Al-Qabun witnessed gunfights. Meanwhile, military operations continued in other Syrian cities such as Idlib and Deir Al-Zur. Although the protest movement has continued to rely on peaceful means and the opposition has encouraged defections from the army with a view to protecting civilians, observers are concerned about future dangers. Syria may be on the brink of a long and costly military conflict, they say, characterised by ongoing confrontations between the regular army and the FSA. The escalation in the violence used by the regime against civilians will not halt the protest movement, the opposition says, warning that it will exacerbate it. The regime is certain to fall eventually, opposition figures say, and the escalation in the violence is needlessly increasing human suffering. "The revolution is bound to win despite the violence of the regime, the international positions, and the domestic challenges facing the opposition," Naguib Al-Ghadban, a member of the opposition Syrian National Council (SNC), told Al-Ahram Weekly. "This regime cannot stay in power, so the issue now is how to topple it with the least cost in human and material terms." Al-Ghadban, a professor of political science in the US, praised "the determination of the Syrian people to continue until the end, after breaking through the fear barrier and making huge sacrifices to gain freedom and dignity." "At the same time," he said, "the manner in which the regime has dealt with the revolution through the use of brutal and excessive force reflects its desperation. This only increases the people's determination and encourages regime supporters to abandon it." For now, the country's opposition is increasing its calls for further Arab and Western initiatives calling on Al-Assad to step down and to start a new chapter in Syrian history after the failure of reform efforts and the repression of the present regime. Although attempts to find a political solution to the Syrian crisis have so far failed because of opposition from Russia and China in the UN Security Council, UN and Arab League envoy Kofi Anan, a former UN secretary-general, is continuing efforts at mediation, ending a visit to Damascus for talks with the Syrian government last week. At the end of the mission, Anan said that the regime seemed likely to continue its hardline stance. "The present UN initiative will not amount to a solution to the Syrian crisis because it is demanding an end to the violence, which means the withdrawal of the army and the end to attacks on demonstrators. The Syrian regime rejects both and continues to claim that it is fighting armed terrorist groups," commented Haitham Manaa, chairman of the Coordination Committee for the Forces of Democratic Change in Syria in an interview with the Weekly. "All the initiatives up to now have called for dialogue, but dialogue according to the regime means that the opposition should not have any preconditions and should accept the reforms it puts forward. But the opposition wants the withdrawal of the security forces first, the release of the tens of thousands of political prisoners and the legalisation of peaceful protests," Manaa said. "Its aim is to change the present regime, agree on an interim phase and end the president's current monopoly on power and form a transitional government. The regime rejects all this." In the absence of dialogue on political reforms, the humanitarian and relief aspects of the international initiatives remain, with Anan's mission largely focussing on these. However, these will not go far in helping to resolve the crisis, said Said Moqbel, a member of the opposition, since "the regime's first step must be to restore confidence by withdrawing the army and stopping the violence, killings and detentions. It must recognise the opposition and accept negotiations for a transitional phase and comprehensive settlement." "Up to now, the regime has been trying to make the protesters accept superficial reforms, such as the new elections law and constitution, but these mean nothing. They do not change anything for the protesters, as they are all unilateral measures tailored to benefit the regime.' "The crisis in Syria can only be resolved through an overhaul of the regime, together with the whole of Syrian society. We have to change the regime itself, which requires that it surrenders to a transitional government." Some observers believe that these things can only happen if the country's opposition, both at home and abroad, agrees on the ways and means through which they can be brought about. There is a need to build bridges with the popular movement and to unite under a single leadership, observers say. Meanwhile, as the confrontations between the regime and its opponents escalate, the risks of increasing military conflict remain high, with everything that this could entail. "The regime's myopia will be its undoing," Moqbel added. "We must uphold the peaceful slogans of the revolution and resist attempts by the regime to drag things towards further violence."
