After the failure of Arab diplomatic efforts to end the crisis, it seems that foreign military intervention in Syria is now a distinct possibility, writes Bassel Oudat in Damascus Arab foreign ministers meeting in Cairo on Sunday called on the UN Security Council to send peacekeeping forces to Syria to help end the bloodshed caused by the crackdown by the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad on the uprising in the country. They also decided to disband the Arab League's monitoring mission in Syria, impose Arab economic sanctions against the country, suspend diplomatic contacts with Damascus, and provide assistance to Syrian opposition forces in their struggle against the regime after the latter escalated its attempts to end the uprising through violence. The Syrian government rejected the Arab decisions in their entirety, describing them as "aggression that targets Syria's security and stability." Syria's ambassador to the Arab League said that these actions "reflect the hysterical state of mind of Arab governments led by Qatar and Saudi Arabia after they failed at the UN Security Council." In the wake of the League decision, Tunisia announced that it would host the first meeting of the "Friends of Syria" group on 24 February, which is sponsored by France and has extensive Arab and western support. The group is expected to include Arab and western countries keen to cooperate on providing assistance to the people of Syria in their struggle against the al-Assad regime and in support of a democratic transition in the country. Damascus has viewed the creation of the Friends of Syria as "a preamble for aggression and a conspiracy against Syria." The new Arab League resolution increases the Syrian regime's isolation among the Arabs and adds to the diplomatic pressure on Russia and China after both countries used their veto to block a UN Security Council resolution against Syria. Most importantly, it provides a conducive background for possible foreign military intervention in Syria, and even emphasises the need for such a step, since it does not say whether the proposed Arab-UN peacekeepers will carry weapons. In the Syrian city of Homs, which has been under missile attack for two weeks by regime forces, Khaled Abu Salah, a spokesman for the opposition Syrian Revolution Council (SRC), said that "as the Arab ministers were meeting in Cairo, the regime was killing people and pummeling Homs with missiles." Abu Salah urged Arab-UN peacekeepers to intervene in the country, saying that the Syrian regime "only understands the language of force and will not implement any resolutions by the Arab League." The opposition Syrian National Council (SNC) said that all options to end the bloodshed in Syria were on the table, and that action could come from outside the UN Security Council. Creating buffer zones and no-fly areas in Syria was possible, the Council said, both of these being key demands of the SNC, which represents the Syrian opposition outside the country. Meanwhile, the opposition inside Syria continued to insist that the Syrian crisis should not become an international matter and that a solution should be reached within Syria or under the umbrella of the Arab League alone. It called on the international community to help make the Arab initiative a success and to ensure multi-party support for the proposal. "This is the only acceptable way to settle the crisis in Syria," said Rajaa Al-Nasser, secretary of the Coordination Committee of Forces for Democratic Change in Syria, which includes 14 opposition parties. Turkey has so far rejected direct military intervention in the country or arming the Syrian opposition, asserting that such steps would be premature. However, it has said that there is a need for a new international plan to respond to massacres committed against civilians in the country. According to western diplomatic sources, Turkey could agree to creating buffer and safety zones if it had international support and a mandate to do so. The EU position regarding the Syrian crisis has been similar to Turkey's, and it has declared that NATO forces should not become involved in the fighting in Syria. European countries want the Arabs to lead the search for a solution in Syria, saying that they will support any such operation without specifying the nature of the Arab moves. The EU hopes that action taken by the Arab League, Turkey and the Gulf Cooperation Council countries will increase the pressure on Russia, Syria's one remaining ally. European and Arab figures are scheduled to meet with Russian officials in the coming days to urge them to change their position, or at least to remain neutral on any future UN resolution on Syria. In Washington, US Republican Senator John McCain suggested that "studying all possibilities" included arming the Syrian opposition. Meanwhile, the International Union of Muslim Scholars (IUMS), an umbrella group, has called on Arab Gulf state leaders to send Peninsula Shield forces to Syria, as occurred last year in Bahrain, and to arm the Syrian opposition. The IUMS urged Muslims to boycott Russian and Chinese products, China having also frustrated moves at the UN through the use of its veto. "Despite concerns about a civil war or foreign military intervention in Syria, the Syrian regime still believes that it can thwart the revolution, and it has not abandoned its belief in a Gulf-US-Israeli 'foreign conspiracy theory'," one opposition activist told Al-Ahram Weekly. "It believes that China and Russia are either ignoring, or approve, the crackdown, and that it will not be pursued in the International Court of Justice. However, the determination of the Syria people to overthrow the regime has never been as strong as it is today." On the ground and away from central areas in many Syrian cities that remain relatively calm, there is constant fear as the military and security machine escalates the violence, using light and heavy artillery to crackdown on demonstrators. In response, the Free Syrian Army (FSA), composed of defectors from the regular Syrian army, has been increasing its influence, with volunteers continuing to join its ranks to defend districts under attack by forces loyal to the regime. As the violence escalates, neighbouring countries have said they are making plans to deal with potential refugees. Turkey, Jordan and Lebanon have started making such plans, with Jordan opening a camp for Syrian refugees in the north of the country and Turkey about to open a camp with a capacity of 10,000 people. Some observers believe that these steps are an indication that neighbouring states expect aggressive developments against Syria over the next few weeks. The Syrian opposition believes that the failure of the diplomatic solutions has opened the door to the militarisation of the protest movement, especially as demands escalate inside and outside Syria to arm the FSA. The Russian veto was the best possible publicity to mobilise support for the armed opposition, they say, and many Syrians say that since they have tried peaceful demonstrations without success now they must defend themselves against the brutality of the regime by force. The opposition also believes that the West has other options to destabilise the regime aside from UN resolutions, including giving support to the FSA or increasing economic sanctions. These could be accompanied by other measures, such as a no-fly zone or even military intervention, which could take place without the Security Council's approval, as happened in Kosovo in 1999. Over the past few weeks, large numbers of Syrian civilians have joined the ranks of the FSA or formed units that include former military officers and volunteers under its banner. Sometimes these units act to "liberate" towns under the control of the security agencies loyal to the regime, including areas near the capital Damascus. Leader of the FSA Riyad Al-Asaad has said that 50 per cent of Syria is no longer under the control of the regime, though he has also admitted that the FSA does not completely control any specific region. At the same time, Syria's infrastructure has suffered serious damage in the unrest, and the regime has lost its power to implement its policies. The ruling Syrian Baath Party has become paralysed, while some militias loyal to the regime are moving out of its control. Meanwhile, the regular army is believed to be slowly falling apart, and the economy is collapsing. Some observers believe that the Syrian regime is now close to its final and most violent chapter, asserting that any peaceful transfer of power is becoming impossible and predicting that Arab and western forces will eventually be forced to intervene to end the chaos if civil war does not break out first.
