The Russian and Chinese veto of a UN Security Council resolution condemning the Syrian regime is being seen as a failure of Arab and Western diplomatic efforts and has added weight to calls to arm the revolution, writes Bassel Oudat Russia and China used their veto power at the UN Security Council in New York at the weekend to halt a joint Arab-western Resolution in support of the Arab League's (AL) call for Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad to stand down in favour of his vice president and for the country to begin a political transition that would end the military crackdown against the popular uprising that began nearly 11 months ago, leading to the deaths of thousands of protesters. The Russian and Chinese move pleased the Syrian regime, since it halted efforts to bring about a change in regime in Syria through the UN route. It is a setback for protesters against the al-Assad regime and a disappointment for the country's opposition. It also marks the failure of diplomatic efforts by the Arab League and western countries to end the Syrian crisis through diplomatic means. Protesters in Syria responded to the Russian and Chinese veto by turning their fury on Russia in particular, rejecting Russia's proposal to host a dialogue between the opposition and the regime in Moscow and causing Russia to lose its credibility among a large section of the Syrian population. The Syrian opposition and protesters have been divided in their views of the effects of the veto, most opposition figures seeing it as a result of an agreement between the Syrian authorities and the Russians to sideline the Arab League and the Security Council. The veto will give the regime more time to crack down on the ongoing protests, opposition figures say, with military operations beginning in the Syrian city of Homs one day before the Security Council session. Some opposition figures have gone further, saying that the Russian veto gives the Al-Assad regime a green light to use all the force at its disposal to suppress the protests. Others, however, say that while the veto was a disappointment it was better than the kind of toothless resolution that could have been issued had Russia managed to water down the original resolution. Some opposition figures have emphasised that the veto will at least keep the Syrian issue in the hands of the Syrian people, instead of making it an international matter and running the risk of foreign intervention. The country's opposition will now be forced to step up its efforts, such figures say, possibly by giving financial and political support to the Free Syrian Army (FSA), which is fighting the Syrian regime using defectors from the regular armed forces. There have been various explanations for the Russian and Chinese move, but it seems likely that the US and Europe did not exert enough effort to convince them of the need for the resolution or do enough to reassure them about their concerns. Whatever the case may be, the veto has at least temporarily ended the Arab-Western diplomatic process, undercutting efforts by the Syrian opposition. There are now increasing calls for the opposition to take up arms against the regime, at least by supporting the FSA. These have come in the wake of the failure by the Arab League to internationalise the Syrian crisis and the failure of proposals, put forward by some Arab countries, to send Arab forces to Syria to protect civilians. The idea of western states sending troops to Syria, or enforcing no-fly zones or buffer zones in the country, has also been stopped in its tracks by the UN veto. In the face of this impasse, many Syrian activists now believe that the only way forward is for the opposition to throw its full weight behind the FSA. They have asked the Arab states to support this policy and have started to design ways of creating buffer zones around Damascus, near the Syrian-Jordanian border, and on the Syrian-Turkish border. Meanwhile, defections from the regular Syrian army have been increasing, as have operations carried out by the FSA against regime forces. The FSA is now present in most regions of Syria, though for the time being it is carrying out only defensive, and not offensive, operations. However, the regime's escalation of violence and military operations in Homs has given the FSA ample reason to step up its own military activities against the regime, with many observers believing that over the coming weeks and months the FSA will increase the number and audacity of its operations. "The violence used by the regime has caused the victims to defend themselves, and mutual violence has now begun," commented Marwan Habash, an opposition figure who formerly served as a government minister in Syria and a member of the leadership of the ruling Syrian Baath Party. "A Pandora's Box has now been opened up, with the flow of weapons increasing and the number of armed people in the revolution rising. The settling of accounts has started, and a climate of uncertainty has set in as a natural development of the brutal security campaign by the Syrian regime." "The solution to the Syrian crisis is no longer Syrian alone, but has moved onto the Arab and international planes. There are now more players involved, and victory will come to the side that has more players. We are worried about this, and we are worried about the repercussions of the internationalization of the crisis on the unity of the people and the integrity of the country." Meanwhile, western and Arab states, together with the Syrian opposition, are trying to draw up a roadmap for the future, with many Western countries planning to increase sanctions against the Syrian regime. Various states have said they will be closing their embassies in Syria, and France has announced its support for the creation of a new international bloc, called Friends of Syria, that will step up pressure on the al-Assad regime. The Arab countries will continue to implement the Arab League's existing sanctions against Syria, and it is likely that these will now be increased with further economic sanctions, such as the banning of commercial flights and the breaking off of trade links. Tunisia has been the first Arab country to recall its ambassador from Damascus and expel the Syrian ambassador in Tunis, opening the door for other Arab countries to follow. Nonetheless, the Syrian opposition remains divided over next moves, with one camp wanting to see a UN General Assembly resolution against the Syrian regime, where a small majority would be enough to pass a resolution that could be used as political cover for an international alliance. This could then help protect the Syrian people against the violence of the regime, and even indirectly train and arm the FSA. A second camp is less enthusiastic about the General Assembly route, preferring to support the protesters in their demonstrations against the regime. There is a need for the opposition to unite, both inside and outside the country, this camp says, and draw up a road map for the future. This second camp is less enthusiastic about the prospect of international actions toppling the Syrian regime, preferring to see this done by endogenous action. This could include further protests and widespread strikes that would paralyse the Syrian economy, possibly going as far as an all-out campaign of civil disobedience that would eventually bring down the regime. "The coming days will reveal the insufficiency of the Syrian opposition and the impotence of the Arabs to intervene through the Arab League. This will cause the Syrian revolutionary forces to merge the peaceful revolution with armed resistance," said Bashar Al-Eissa, a member of the opposition living in exile. "We are approaching one of the most dangerous phases in the Syrian revolution that will lead to a fateful domestic battle. No one will be able to escape its consequences, whether on the Arab, regional or international fronts. Unfortunately, we will lose even if the revolution succeeds as a result, and for some time we will not see a country with democratic structures and mechanisms."
