The Free Syrian Army, a source of concern to the Syrian regime, is splitting the opposition about its future and goals, writes Bassel Oudat The issue of arming the Free Syrian Army (FSA), the armed wing of the Syrian opposition made up of defectors from the regular army, has become the centre of a heated debate between the opposition, Arab and Western states. While the Syrian National Council (SNC), which includes the majority of the opposition outside Syria, believes that arming the FSA is vital for self defence, a view shared by some Arab states, the Coordination Committee for the Forces of Democratic Change (CCFDC), which includes the majority of the opposition inside Syria, has warned that militarisation could result in civil war. The SNC has not only demanded the arming of the FSA, but it has also called for the establishment of safe zones in Syria, especially close to the northern border with Turkey, asking that these areas be protected by international forces. It has called for the international community to impose a no-fly zone over Syria, or at least over the safe zones, to ensure that they are protected from bombing. The SNC believes that secure buffer zones would greatly increase the number of soldiers defecting from the regular army, gradually leading to its fragmentation in favour of the FSA. For its part, the opposition inside the country describes the FSA as "a phenomenon of the revolution" and "a response to the security crackdown by the regime in confronting a peaceful popular movement." Army defectors should organise according to the needs of the revolution and its strategy of peaceful struggle, it says. "We must remember that a large portion of the army rejects the regime, and if we arm the FSA and it begins attacking the regular army we will be killing our brothers and militarising the revolution," CCFDC secretary Ragaa Al-Nasser told Al-Ahram Weekly. "Militarisation is civil war. We must maintain the peaceful nature of the revolution and respect the defection by officers and others and the FSA. But its role should be limited to self-defence and defending civilians without attacking the regular army." The calls by the SNC to arm the FSA are rooted in its belief that the regime led by Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad will not fall without a change in the balance of power in favour of the protesters. "Anyone who believes that the regime will be overthrown through peaceful protest is deluded. This regime is built on force, and anyone who is familiar with it knows that it will only fall through force," the SNC has said. Some 10 days ago a military council was created to unite the armed opposition forces under the banner of the FSA, and a few days ago it was announced that a leadership for the FSA had been formed across the country. A spokesman was appointed for the leadership, and in order to prevent the regime from infiltrating the opposition it was decided that no other armed brigade could be formed without the say-so of the FSA military council in the region concerned. The military council also warned all political and religious parties against carrying out any armed operations outside the framework of the FSA. The FSA and military council also became active in the media, creating a website and announcing their intention to create a Facebook page for the leadership to connect with the public. The FSA leadership said it intends to launch a satellite channel to broadcast news of the armed groups trying to unite under one leadership, this being broadcast on NileSat 24 hours a day. In order to increase the number of defectors, colonel Riyad Al-Asaad, leader of the FSA, announced at the beginning of this week that any soldier who deserts the regime or refuses to be drafted will be exempt from military duty after the regime falls. Meanwhile, the US and several European countries have announced that they will send non-combat equipment to the opposition, most likely communications devices. Commenting on these steps, one member of the opposition living in Damascus said that "the FSA tools and factions continue to evolve despite escalating military operations by the regime. If these military forces are given the logistical and military assistance they need, they could pull the rug out from beneath the political opposition, both inside and outside Syria. They would then lead the transitional phase single-handedly after the regime falls." "Sidelining the political opposition in favour of the military opposition is problematic, however, and it needs to be done cautiously. But having the armed opposition lead the interim phase is better than the incumbent regime remaining in power." No one knows the number of fighters in the FSA who have defected from the regular army, although the number of squadrons is in the dozens, according to sources in the opposition. According to military sources, each squadron is composed of 300-1,000 men, and last October the FSA leadership said that it had 15,000 fighters, doubling by the beginning of this year to 30,000. In early February, FSA sources said that there were now more than 60,000 fighters in the FSA, despite the difficulties facing anyone wanting to defect from the regular army, including concerns over the fate of the men's families. Some in the opposition say that around 30 percent of FSA ranks are civilian volunteers from outside the military. According to Haitham Al-Malah, leader of the opposition Syrian National Action Front, FSA numbers could soon reach 100,000, and if they did so the regular Syrian army could collapse. Some estimates put the number of men in the regular Syrian army at 300,000 divided into 12 brigades, to which should be added the Republican Guard, Special Forces and elite Fourth Brigade led by the Syrian presidency and designed to respond to any threat to the regime. Meanwhile, the domestic security apparatus, composed of various police and intelligence agencies, is estimated to employ a further 300,000 men. As a result, there is still a clear imbalance in the manpower available to the regular army and the FSA, as there is in the armaments available to the two forces. The FSA only possesses light weapons, almost depleted in some squadrons, while the regular army has medium and heavy artillery, as well as stockpiles of ammunition. However, FSA forces have not waited for the arrival of weapons from the West and have acquired them either by buying them on the domestic market, as revealed by some FSA officers who said they had bought weapons from army and security sources, or by smuggling weapons in through neighbouring states, especially Iraq and Lebanon, where there is a thriving black market for weapons. The FSA is calling for the support of the Syrian opposition and Arab and western countries to fund these purchases, promising to use the weapons only to overthrow the regime and not later to use them to impose a political solution on the Syrian people. Its leaders are against a wider militarisation of the Revolution, or the arming of the citizenry more generally, since they say that the regime would then use the presence of weapons as a pretext to escalate the crackdown, increasing the killings and violence used against the protesters. FSA statements have reiterated the view that its mission is to defend the Syrian people until the battle to overthrow the regime succeeds. For the moment, FSA operations have focused on security and intelligence targets, and it has carried out attacks on security headquarters inside and outside the country's main cities, capturing military and security troops to exchange them for prisoners and detainees. Assassinations of senior intelligence and security officers have also been attempted, some successfully. Last week, the FSA released a brigadier-general it had captured in exchange for the bodies of 20 dead comrades, agreeing to the exchange because the regime had refused to release 30 live prisoners and the general in question had not been "implicated in killing the innocent." Although it continues to call for arms from the international community, the FSA may realise how difficult such a step would be. Hence, it has said that it is willing to implement a ceasefire with the regime, stopping all offensive actions if the regime withdraws its tanks, artillery and heavy weapons from the cities. Although the Syrian military remains mostly loyal to the regime, dissension is on the rise, especially measured by the number of defections. Video footage is now distributed on a daily basis of alleged defections from the army, and that army is said to be becoming increasingly exhausted by the conflict.
