The race is on between the supporters of peaceful struggle and the advocates of armed confrontation in Syria, says Bassel Oudat The international community is moving on many fronts to end the Syrian crisis as it enters its second year, even as the Syrian regime continues to pursue a security solution to the crisis, aiming to end the protests by the use of force. Over recent days, there have been various regional and international initiatives to find a political solution to the crisis, many of them led by UN special envoy Kofi Anan, a former UN secretary-general, who has visited Damascus, Moscow and Beijing recently. The international community is seeking a political formula that will end the violence, before launching negotiations between the regime and the opposition about the country's transitional phase. The depth of the Syrian crisis, and its potential to spread disruption throughout the region, has meant that such efforts have been redoubled, despite the apparent intransigence of the Syrian regime led by President Bashar Al-Assad. Anan's recent visit to Moscow came as a clear indication that Russia would be given a role in resolving the crisis, after the West became convinced that without pressure from Moscow the regime in Damascus would not decrease the use of force or participate in the political process. Following the meeting, Russian President Dmitri Medvedev said that Anan's proposals were the last chance for the country to avoid civil war and called upon the Syrians to agree to them. Meanwhile, the UN Human Rights Council (UNHRC) has condemned the Syrian regime for crimes committed against civilians through what it described as a policy of collective punishment, with some human rights activists describing them as crimes against humanity. The UNHRC has renewed the mandate of the independent committee it created to gather evidence and document human rights violations in Syria, and it has called on the UN High Commission for Human Rights to take the data gathered into account for future use. A technical committee sent by Anan to Damascus to study how to implement the peace plan has submitted a report that will be discussed in the Security Council after Anan returns from trips to Russia and China. Meanwhile, a statement by the president of the Security Council demanded an end to the violence in Syria and the withdrawal of regime troops from Syrian cities as a prelude for implementing Anan's initiative, which also stipulates the passage of aid to afflicted towns and cities, the legalisation of the protests, the freedom of the press and the handing of the mandate of the president to a negotiator who will talk to the opposition. The fact that Russia and China voted in support of the statement marked a change in their positions towards the regime in Damascus. However, the statement lacked the authority of a resolution, and while it talked about the need for political transition in Syria, it did not call on Al-Assad to step down. The Syrian opposition, Arab League and EU have all demanded that Al-Assad leave office. The EU has also issued further sanctions against figures in the regime, including the president's mother, wife, sister and sister-in-law, as well as several ministers and leaders of various companies. Another conference of the opposition "Friends of Syria" group is also scheduled for April in Turkey. Such developments reflect rising concerns over the destruction in Syria, though taken alone they have not been enough to stop the killings and arrests that have taken place since the protests began one year ago. At the same time, the regime has not been able to break the will of the protesters or prevent peaceful demonstrations. Last Friday, some 725 demonstrations took place across Syria. In response, the regime has expanded its use of force, especially in areas thought to be epicentres of the protest movement, or where the Free Syrian Army (FSA), made up of defectors from the regular armed forces, is active. Towns and cities have been put under siege and bombed, with military helicopters being used in some areas. However, despite the recent initiatives the Syrian opposition believes that Anan's plan will fail since it says that it misdiagnoses the crisis and reduces it to a problem of humanitarian aid. According to the opposition, the crisis in Syria is political in nature, and it will not end without the overthrow of the regime and the launching of a transitional phase that opens the door to democracy, freedom and pluralism. The regime's use of force will not end the protests, the opposition says, claiming also that arming the protesters is a natural next step, given the violence and intransigence of the regime. While the Syrian military remains largely loyal to the regime, there have been signs of significant defections and of the army becoming exhausted as the conflict continues. Meanwhile, the FSA has been embraced by the masses in many places, with people chanting slogans in its support and in support of taking up arms to defend the demonstrators and attack military and security targets. Despite the international efforts, a peaceful resolution to the Syrian crisis is still not on the horizon, though Russia seems to have become persuaded that the regime will not now be able to restore the situation alone. For its part, the West has been reluctant to arm the opposition, for fear that the situation could develop into a full-scale civil war, threatening the security of neighbouring states. The protesters have given up waiting for weapons from the West and are now buying arms from the security forces and smuggling arms across the borders with neighbouring countries, especially Lebanon and Iraq, where there are large black markets. Some days ago, Syrian defectors announced the creation of a military council in Damascus in order to encourage further defections from the army. Another military council was created earlier to unite the forces of the armed opposition under the banner of the FSA, led by General Mustafa Al-Sheikh and Colonel Riyad Al-Asaad, who have emerged as heads of the FSA. The council includes ten colonels and six officers with the rank of brigadier general, and it has called for all armed units to carry out operations under its leadership, warning political and religious groups not to carry out armed operations outside the framework of the FSA. There has also been discussion about the creation of buffer zones in northern and southern Syria, but neither Jordan nor Turkey has showed much enthusiasm for the idea since they do not want a confrontation with Syria. Meanwhile, some other Arab states have called for the arming of the FSA, as the opposition Syrian National Council (SNC) has also asked for on condition that there is an international consensus. Military intervention in Syria is not on the cards at the moment, though this, and the possibility of imposing a no-fly zone over the country, is being discussed. Europe and the US have rejected such moves for the moment, hoping that economic sanctions and political pressure will force the regime to end the military crackdown and embrace a political solution. Some observers now believe that the Syrian crisis has turned into a contest between those supporting peaceful struggle and those in favour of an armed one, while others say that the Syrian issue is no longer in the hands of the Syrian people, having now developed into a regional and international crisis. Any resolution to the crisis in Syria, such observers say, will now depend on political deals struck among the major regional and international players.
