The Syrian regime has agreed to implement the Anan peace plan, but the country's opposition says it will collapse if it does so, writes Bassel Oudat in Damascus With the almost international consensus that there must be a political solution to the Syrian crisis, underlined at the "Friends of Syria" meeting in Istanbul last week, the Syrian regime has apparently agreed to implement the Anan peace plan proposed by former UN secretary-general Kofi Anan even though the country's opposition claims that it will collapse if it does so. The Anan plan, put together by UN and Arab League envoy to Syria Anan, was presented at the Friends of Syria meeting, where those present announced their enthusiastic support for the plan, while stopping short of demands to arm the country's opposition including the Free Syrian Army (FSA) made up of defectors from the regular Syrian army. The opposition Syrian National Council (SNC), the FSA and others had called for the arming of the opposition at the Istanbul meeting, supported by Gulf states such as Saudi Arabia, which described the arming of the Syrian opposition as a "duty" since this was the only way, it said, that the opposition could defend the civilian population. After visiting Syria and meeting with Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad and various opposition figures, Anan put together a six-point plan to end the violence, requiring the regime to withdraw its security forces from residential areas. Other points in the plan include an end to the armed conflict by all sides, the delivery of humanitarian aid, the release of all political detainees, the legalisation of peaceful demonstrations, and the beginning of dialogue with the opposition. According to the plan, these steps would be carried out under UN supervision, with Anan sending a technical team to Syria to agree the details of their implementation. The plan was agreed to by the Syrian regime before the expiration of the deadline for it to accept it. Under the plan, supported by the Arab states and the international community, monitors would be sent to Syria to verify that the ceasefire stipulated in the plan was observed and also other parts of the agreement. These would be joined by human rights monitors who would ensure the freedom of movement of journalists and the delivery of humanitarian aid. While the Syrian regime has accepted the plan, neither the Arab states nor the international community is confident that it will in fact observe it, with some commentators claiming that the Syrian regime's intentions must be judged by actions and not words. According to the country's opposition, the regime has procrastinated on other promises made in previous initiatives. Should the Syrian army in fact withdraw from the country's towns and cities, opposition spokesman say, millions will take to the streets, threatening the stability and continuity of the regime. Thus far, though it has agreed to the plan in principle the regime has not withdrawn its troops, hinting at new conditions and declaring that it will not negotiate with anyone who carries arms. The Syrian president has asked Anan to work to "dry up the sources that support terrorism aimed against Syria," asking also that Arab and international parties should withdraw any weapons sent into Syria. A spokesman for the Syrian Foreign Ministry said that the army would not withdraw before security was restored, stating that while "40 per cent" of the success of the Anan plan lay in Syrian hands, the other 60 per cent lay abroad. The monitors sent into the country under the Anan plan could face problems similar to those that hindered the mission of the former Arab League observers, he said, adding that humanitarian aid could only enter Syria under state supervision without the participation of civil society and NGOs. International media wanting to cover events in Syria would have to respect the country's laws, he added, and reform would have to be carried out under the auspices of the regime. Meanwhile, Anan announced that monitors would go to Damascus as soon as a ceasefire was in place, with spokesman Ahmed Fawzi saying that the mission was preparing to leave within days once the Syrian government and opposition had agreed to a ceasefire. The opposition objected to the demand, saying that it was not armed and that the members of the FSA who were carrying weapons were defectors from the army engaged in defending civilians with light weapons. There was no heavy weaponry being used among the opposition, it said, adding that the FSA would be willing to end the fighting the instant the Syrian army withdrew its artillery and heavy weapons from the country's towns and cities. Despite the apparent advances on the Anan plan, the Syrian army has continued to shell the country's towns and cities as if the plan did not exist, with Homs, Idlib, Hama, Deraa and other cities being bombarded and civilian demonstrators shot across Syria, killing dozens of people every day. Anan has urged the Syrian regime to observe the ceasefire and withdraw the army from the cities, saying that this will be followed by talks to end the fighting on a permanent basis. The Anan plan is neither a formula for reconciliation between the regime and its opponents nor a solution to their disputes. Rather, it aims to manage the conflict, limiting the regime's ability to spill more blood and later aiming to bring about a more genuine ceasefire that will be heatedly debated in the coming weeks. However, the differences remain deep and negotiations could last for many months. Despite its notional agreement, it seems unlikely that the Syrian government will implement the Anan plan immediately, and there may be much bartering. The regime will likely place conditions on the proposals to ensure it remains in power, and the plan does not specify any precise mechanisms for the army's withdrawal. Nor does it specify a timeline for the process or for the launching of a political solution. Damascus has already placed conditions on the nationality and number of the monitors, as well as on their mandate and the areas in which they will operate. The proposals do not give a deadline for the release of prisoners, asking only for their "speedy" release. Allowing demonstrations to take place will be a particularly hot topic, since the regime wants any protests to take place according to Syrian law. This has been rejected out of hand by the opposition because the demonstrations law that Al-Assad issued three months after the protests began subjects them to countless security and administrative conditions. Meanwhile, the country's state-owned media has been claiming victory over the opposition and the international community, saying that the regime is still strong and that it must be negotiated with on equal terms. The Anan plan is similar to an initiative made by the opposition two months after the beginning of the protests last year that was intended to produce a climate conducive to dialogue. This initiative also proposed a ceasefire, the withdrawal of the army from towns and cities, the release of political prisoners, guarantees on the right to protest, and the creation of channels between the regime and the opposition to negotiate the transitional phase to democracy. However, the crackdown by regime military and security forces and the rising numbers of the dead, now standing at some 11,000, caused the opposition to raise its demands, it now being unwilling to accept anything short of Al-Assad's stepping down from power. "I believe the regime accepted [Anan's] plan because it has been weakened and is feeling mounting Arab and international pressure," Faeq Al-Mir, a leading figure in the opposition Democratic People's Party, told the Weekly. "The opposition believes that the regime neither wants to implement the proposals nor talk to it. An appropriate political solution at this stage would be for the president to step down and for the creation of a transitional government, leading the country to a pluralist and democratic regime. There should be a new constitution and parliamentary and presidential elections." Implementing the Anan plan "would allow popular protests to reach [Al-Assad's] palace and overthrow him," said SNC member Walid Al-Nabi, who added that the regime intended only "to procrastinate, as it did with the Arab initiative." The Syrian people "will not back down from demanding freedom and democracy despite the high price," he said. Al-Assad would not have accepted the Anan plan if he had not been convinced that it would allow him to end the crisis while staying in power, observers say. The fact that he has agreed to the plan does not mean that the conflict in Syria is close to an end. It simply means that it has entered a new phase.
