Kofi Anan's latest report on the Syrian conflict was bleak, writes Graham Usher at the UN For the second time in a month UN-Arab League Special Envoy Kofi Anan and UN peacekeeping chief Herve Ladsous briefed the Security Council on the state of their peace plan for Syria. If on the first occasion the former secretary-general showed an optimism of the will, this time he betrayed pessimism of the intellect. "My plan is possibly the only chance left to stabilise the country, otherwise Syria could descend into a full civil war", Anan warned. Yet the Syrian authorities and armed opposition have so far observed the plan's demand for a ceasefire only in the breach. Government "troops continue to press against the population", with human rights violations, arrest and torture, said Anan. As for the armed opposition, that has increased its attacks on government installations with "a worrying spate of bombings". Anan's warnings resonated with a statement from the International Committee of the Red Cross. It said recent conflicts in Homs and Idlib could already be defined as localised civil wars, with the opposition adopting "guerrilla attacks" as its preferred mode of struggle. The ICRC noted that while this definition permitted rebels and regime to use arms, it also exposed them to possible war crimes if the combat affected civilians. Ladsous was a bit lighter. There had been a "noticeable reduction in the use of heavy weapons," he said, but "Syria still resorts to" them. And there was an "intrusive presence of the Syrian security" in the cities. According to the peace plan soldiers and heavy weaponry are meant to be consigned to barracks. Following Anan, US UN Ambassador Susan Rice said the situation in Syria was "dire", though she stressed that her government remained committed to his plan. So was Russia, said Ambassador Vitaly Churkin, despite "many obstacles", mainly from the opposition. Syria's UN Ambassador Bashar Al-Jaafari said the "plan was going in a positive direction". Largely because of the dearth of any alternatives the Anan plan has wide support on the council. But there are increasing doubts among member states about whether it can be implemented. The plan calls for an end to all fighting, humanitarian access to those in need, the deployment of 300 UN observers to monitor the truce and "dialogue" between government and opposition on a "political transition" out of the crisis. Anan said the 300 observers should be in Syria by the end of May. Neither side has complied with the truce. But the regime has actively tried to pre-empt all chance of a dialogue with Syria's political opposition. "People known for advocating non-violence have been arrested," Anan told the Council. Take Aleppo, Syria's largest city, once deemed a rock of support for President Bashar Al-Assad. On 2 May students at Aleppo University staged a peaceful protest against him. Soldiers, police and thugs stormed the campus, killing four, with one student thrown from a fifth story window. The university was closed, a collective punishment that put 6,000 students out of school. Four more students were shot dead the next day in mass protests against the shutdown. On 5 May a bomb exploded in an Aleppo carwash allegedly used by pro-government militiamen, killing three. The opposition Free Syrian Army claimed responsibility. The government's crackdown "proves it's not about to allow that kind of assembly in the future. They're very scared about Aleppo," Andrew Tabler, a Syria expert, told the New York Times. He suggested Aleppo was a "trigger city" that, with mass protests, could switch to the opposition. Needless to say, the right to peaceful assembly and protest is a core part of the Anan plan. For Western and Arab states, Aleppo highlights one of the plan's two main flaws. First of all, it fails to punish the regime for crushing peaceful protests, so the opposition is compelled to take up arms. This creates a specter of equivalence, legally, if not morally. But for large parts of the Syrian people the rebels cannot be on a par with the regime. The fighters are defending them against a dictatorship. This view is shared by Arab public opinion, Turkey and several European states. The second flaw is the risk of entrapment. There are currently a few dozen UN observers in Damascus, Deraa, Homs, Hama and Idlib. They have not stopped the shelling in these cities but they have reduced it. They've also helped prevent reprisal killings. Three hundred monitors spread across Syria may be just enough to keep afloat a leaky ceasefire. But would they be enough to propel a political transition? "Drawing the UN system (into a conflict) risks freezing the situation on the ground," admits one UN diplomat. "Freezing the situation on the ground" would suit Al-Assad, and possibly Russia, China and Iran: all three prefer a managed impasse rather than radical change. But it would be seen as a defeat by the US, Europe, Arab countries and Turkey. And it could lead to all kinds of freelance actions by regional states and groups in support of the opposition. Anan has not yet lost hope in his plan. The deployment of 300 UN observers may unleash "dynamics" that will challenge the status quo, not entrench it. "Even two or three can have a calming effect", he said on 8 May. But he is no longer the optimist he was. He knows what the alternative to the collapse of his mission would be. "If this fails and Syria were to fall into civil war, it will affect not only Syria. It will impact the whole region. This is why we should all be so concerned about Syrians and Syria".
