Iraq's constitution was accepted by the majority of voters, leaving Sunnis with no option but to pursue a participatory path, writes Doaa El-Bey Iraq's Sunnis failed to produce the needed majority "no" vote in the third Sunni province to block the passage of the new constitution. The Independent Electoral Commission of Iraq announced Tuesday that Ninevah produced a no vote of only 55 per cent. Nationwide, 78.4 per cent voted for the constitution and 21 per cent voted against. The constitution could have been blocked if at least three out of Iraq's 18 provinces produced a two-thirds no vote, regardless of whether it is backed by the majority of Iraqis. If the constitution had been rejected, new elections would have been held and a new draft constitution drafted. Al-Anbar, another Sunni-dominated province, rejected the constitution by an overwhelming majority of 96 per cent on Monday. Earlier this week, Salahuddin, a Sunni-dominated province that includes Tikrit, the hometown of Saddam Hussein, returned a no vote to the constitution by over 81 per cent. All hopes of Sunnis were pending on Ninevah. Initial results in Ninevah showed a 70 per cent no vote, but later estimates put it at a 55 per cent. Audit teams started re-checking the results early this week and confirmed the 55 per cent no vote Tuesday. Preliminary results released by the Electoral Commission early this week showed that 13 of Iraq's 18 provinces returned a yes vote to the constitution. The endorsing vote was above 90 per cent in seven Shia and two Kurdish provinces. Although these results were based on sorting 50 per cent of the votes, the other half is not likely to contradict the trend. These results were expected in that they reflect the homogenous population in these provinces. Both Shia and Kurds (80 per cent of the population) backed the new constitution. Sunnis, who represent 20 per cent of the population, opposed the new constitution because it is grounded on federalism, which could lead to the break- up of Iraq, and it did not clearly state Iraq's Arab identity. Now that the constitution is approved, strong pressure will fall on Sunnis to take a participatory stance in the hope of regaining balance in the country. Their unexpected wide participation in the referendum showed their will to play a more prominent role in the future of Iraq. Sixty-three per cent of registered voters participated in the referendum ballot, an increase of three per cent on the January vote. Much of that increase was due to Sunni participation. Alan Godlas, associate professor at the University of Georgia, US, considers the Sunni vote as disavowal of non-democratic means. "It is a decisive rejection of Abu Musaab Al-Zarqawi's politics of terror, as well as a clear recognition that Sunni participation in the democratic political process is their best chance for an empowered future," he said. Mahmoud Othman, a prominent Kurdish politician, hailed the Sunni vote as an important step because they will be able to "achieve more political gains by participating rather than by boycotting." However, some politicians ascribe Sunni participation in the referendum to the absence of other alternatives. Kamil Al-Mahdi, an Iraqi professor at the University of Exeter, argues, "many people, individuals and political groups, have said that they would support the constitution even though they have serious misgivings about it. These people are worried about the political process and are afraid of the consequences of its failure." Despite its shortcomings, the approval of the constitution could be the starting point for building democracy in Iraq. Godlas regards it as a step that can be built upon. "It is crucial to keep in mind two points: first, the long-term, rather than the immediate future; and second, that democracies evolve over time. So in both of these cases, irrespective of whatever happens in the short term, Iraqis will most certainly keep working to improve and refine the democratic quality of their evolving political system, just as other democracies are continuing to do with theirs," he said. Othman agrees with Godlas: "the constitution includes some of the demands of the Shias, Sunnis and Kurds. But it is not a holy book, and after it is approved, it is open for whoever wants to amend it," he said. Announcing the results of the referendum was delayed in part because of an audit launched after an unusually high number of yes votes raised questions in some provinces, especially in Ninevah. Election Commission officials insisted the measure was merely taken to examine numbers that were statistically higher than expected, and to meet international standards of oversight. However, regardless of whether the constitution passed or not, the referendum showed an increasing sectarian division among Iraqis which is likely to cause political problems in the future. Mahdi believes that the future of Iraq should be in the hands of all Iraqis: "Until they together decide to force an end to the occupation, instead of trying to seek advantage through separate deals with it, the situation will remain very dangerous," he said.
