Passing the constitution without Sunni approval equals a hollow victory, Iraqi observers told Omayma Abdel-Latif As Iraqis await the final results of the Saturday vote on the constitution, Iraq's Sunnis, the charter's fiercest opponents, emerged as the ultimate force to pass or reject the charter. Initial results suggested that the country's Sunnis, who unexpectedly turned out in big numbers, did not muster enough votes to veto the constitution. The predominantly Sunni provinces of Anbar and Salaheddin rejected the constitution by the required two-thirds, while results from Nineveh (Mosul) and Diayala where there is a Sunni majority still being counted as the paper went to press. Early reports said the two provinces may have given a yes vote but these were later dismissed as reports spoke about a possible vote fraud. According to referendum rules, the passage of the constitution could be blocked if three out of Iraq's 18 provinces veto it -- regardless of whether it is backed by the majority of Iraqis. Observers said that initial results of the referendum clearly suggest that the Sunni vote on the constitution might have been divided. The Sunnis, as Sawsan Al-Assaf, political science professor at Baghdad University explained, have lost the power to block the measure due to contradictory calls from their leaders. "As the referendum approached," Al-Assaf said, "there was a near consensus among Iraq's Sunnis to come out in huge numbers to veto the charter because they believe its passage will be the first step on the road to dividing Iraq," she said. Many Sunni leaders have accused the Iraqi Islamic Party of breaking the Sunni consensus after it called on Iraq's Sunnis -- just one day before voting took place -- to support the referendum. The party claimed that in return, parliament would review the constitution once new elections are held in January 2006. Some even speak of a "secret deal" with the Americans that would allow the party to gain more influence in the political process. According to Al-Assaf, however, the party is likely to pay a huge political price for such a move and the Sunnis will continue to remain outside the political process. "Even if the constitution is passed, the fact that the majority of Sunnis still don't approve of it means that the country has not moved any closer towards achieving national reconciliation. Iraqis are doomed if the referendum is passed and doomed if it isn't," Al-Assaf said. A prominent Sunni politician said that vote-rigging took place in Diyala where soldiers were spotted removing the ballot boxes and that there had been more votes cast than registered electors. While no exact figures were reported from the province of Anbar where the turnout was believed to be minimal, in Falluja the yes vote was set at three per cent and the no vote at 97 per cent. A hundred thousand votes were counted. In the much-contested Nineveh, initial results put the yes vote at 78 per cent while the no vote amounted to 21 per cent. Several Sunni figures doubted this high yes vote, raising concerns among Iraqi Sunnis that the referendum -- marketed as yet another landmark of the failing political process -- may have been rigged. Reports of a possible fraud in the referendum on Iraq's draft constitution only confirm Iraqi Sunnis' fears that corrupt practices might have been allowed to boost the yes vote. One Iraqi observer warned that any shadowy practices could deligitimises the whole process. Nadhim Al-Jassour, head of Political Science Institute at Al-Mustansariya University, believes that already there is suspicion on the Sunnis' part that the constitution will be passed anyway. "Such reports of vote-rigging or even statements by US officials that the constitution has been passed before the final results have even been announced, exposes the real intention to pass it at any cost," Al-Jassour told Al-Ahram Weekly. If the referendum is vetoed, he said, all of Iraq's political forces will have to go back to the drawing board. This time round, however, Iraq's Sunnis will play a crucial role in shaping the political process.
