Will Sunni participation in the political process put an end to armed resistance in Iraq? Omayma Abdel-Latif seeks answers In stark contrast to previous National Assembly polls held in January, Iraq's Sunnis showed up in large numbers to cast their vote last week. While the move was viewed as ending a two-year long boycott of the political process by Iraq's Sunnis, Iraqi analysts nonetheless argue that wider Sunni participation in the political process does not mean that the Iraqi resistance, championed mostly by Sunni groups, against the US-led occupation will come to a halt any time soon. Sunni participation has been hailed as a radical shift towards a more participatory and inclusive basis of rule. In an attempt to encourage such participation, Iraqi Prime Minister Ibrahim Al-Jaafari walked the extra mile by calling on all Iraqis "including the Baathists" to work together in building the new Iraq. Al-Jaafari has always been a staunch opponent of inclusion of any elements from the Baath Party. His recent statements are viewed as part of a larger effort to lure Sunni forces into the political process in the hope that their inclusion will undercut support for the insurgency. The future of Sunni participation remains nonetheless fraught with uncertainty. As initial results from the poll began to filter in, the main Sunni coalition, the Iraqi Accordance Front (IAF), challenged the numbers, calling them "falsification of the will of the people" and saying that evidence of fraud was abundant; that the vote in Baghdad had been rigged. Tareq Al-Hashemi of the Iraqi Islamic Party -- one of the parties of the IAF -- threatened that Sunni forces would withdraw from the process and might block the formation of a new government if the votes were not re- counted. Initial tallies put the Sunni coalition second to the Shia-dominated United Iraqi Alliance (UIA). Such statements are in stark contrast to what Sunni politicians said earlier in the week about how successful the elections were. Iraq's Independent Elections Commission announced partial results of the elections that were held on 15 December on Monday, revealing that the Shia UIA won most of the votes in Baghdad. The preliminary results drew angry response from Sunni groups who called for re- elections in Baghdad, the country's biggest electoral district. The Sunni front was not the only party to contest the preliminary poll results. Former Prime Minister Iyad Allawi, whose list came third in Baghdad, also cried foul. Meanwhile, Hamid Moussa, head of the Iraqi Communist Party in Allawi's coalition, accused the Elections Commission of "bias" and being "far from objective". "There are irregularities and the commission should look at them before they announce any results," he told a press conference on Tuesday. Sawsan Assaf, a politics professor at Baghdad University and member of the outgoing National Assembly, told Al-Ahram Weekly that while it was premature to speak about final results, the Sunni lists -- particularly list number 618 of the IAF -- was not sectarian- based; that it included Kurdish, Shia and Turkoman candidates who contested seats in areas like Hila and Basra, mostly Shia-populated. The other Sunni- dominated list was number 667 headed by Saleh Al-Mutlaq, but many expect the IAF to achieve a landslide victory among Iraq's Sunnis. Assaf conducted a poll one week before the elections and the results suggested that the Sunni alliances would achieve between 50 to 60 seats in the 275-seat assembly. "It was clear from the pre-election poll results that the IAF was going to achieve overwhelming victory in Sunni-dominated areas because the list is known to include Iraqis with clean hands whose ultimate goal is the unity of Iraq," Assaf said. The list consists mainly of conservative Islamic political forces like the Iraqi Islamic Party, the People of Iraq Convention and the National Dialogue Council. Assaf pointed out that part of the Sunni vote -- particularly among secular Sunnis -- would no doubt go to Allawi's list which includes prominent Sunni figures like Talal Al-Qoud and Saad Al-Nayef, both of whom are running in Anbar province. Not all Sunni forces have decided to end the boycott of the political process. The Association of Muslim Scholars remained faithful to its principle of not participating in polls as long as Iraq is under occupation. But even those who decided to enter the process, explained Assaf, did not do so in order to end the resistance. "Their endgame remains to end the occupation and bring back the unity of Iraq. Their entry into the process is only an attempt to extract political advantages that sustain their cause." Assaf added: "they believe that the only way to exercise pressure on the US to leave Iraq is through armed resistance. They want to be recognised as a legitimate force of resistance." According to other analysts, however, the reason behind Sunni entry into the process is to end the monopoly of the Kurdish-Shia alliance. "The Sunnis want to restore a balance to the political process which they believe has been hijacked by the Shia-Kurdish alliance," said one analyst. This might explain why the key issue that the Sunni bloc will address once in parliament will be the introduction of constitutional amendments, particularly to articles related to the issue of federalism -- articles 111 to 123. "Iraq's Arab identity and the shape of the Iraqi polity future will be amongst the key issues which the Sunni bloc will address in the assembly," Assaf said. Sunni candidates are also playing on themes of Sunni disenfranchisement and opposition to the new constitution. The more Sunnis win seats in this national election the greater their chance to alter the constitution when the National Assembly sits. While it is too early to tell whether the Sunnis will achieve a large enough constituency within the National Assembly to be able to change the constitution (any such change would need the approval of two-thirds of the assembly), there are growing possibilities that the Sunni bloc may strike an alliance with Allawi's bloc. "Alliance with the Kurds is next to impossible, and so is the case with the Shia alliance, which will have at least 50 per cent of assembly seats. So they are left to strike an alliance with Allawi, in order to be able to make the changes necessary in the constitution," remarked Assaf. Observers expect that the Sunni presence will result in a government that consists of a broader coalition than the current one between Shia Islamists and Kurds, raising the possibility that a more diverse leadership could ease sectarian tensions.
