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The long and winding road
Published in Al-Ahram Weekly on 05 - 01 - 2006

Efforts to form a new Iraqi government continue to be overshadowed by Sunni and secular groups' demands for a re-vote, reports Omayma Abdel-Latif
As Iraqis await the final results of the 15 December vote, marathon talks were held between leaders of the two main lists emerging victorious in the polls -- the United Iraqi Alliance (UIA), a coalition of Shia groups and the Kurdish list headed by Massoud Barazani -- to form a new government which will take Iraq from transitional to permanent rule during the next four years.
The week-long discussions held in Arbil city in northern Iraq between Barazani and Iraqi President Jalal Talabani on the one hand, and outgoing Iraqi Prime Minister Ibrahim Al-Jaafari and Abdul-Aziz Al-Hakim, head of the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI) on the other, yielded hardly any breakthroughs relative to political deadlock over government formation. Iraqi political forces, particularly from Sunni and secular circles, have persistently underlined that a broad-based national unity government inclusive of all Iraqi groups was the only viable option if national reconciliation were to be achieved and security restored to the country.
Preliminary results of the 15 December poll has given the UIA a big lead with 130 seats, though it falls short of securing the needed majority --184 seats -- to form a government on its own. The UIA coalition is thus forced to engage in a process of political compromise with the other Iraqi forces, reminiscent of events last year when it took the competing currents three months to agree on the form of an interim government. The Kurdish list, which came second gaining 52 seats, has been partner in that government which ruled the country for less than a year. Unlike January's elections, however, when Sunni forces boycotted the poll, the entry of Sunni groups into the political game forces the Kurdish-Shia alliance to accept a new range of compromises. A coalition of Sunni groups is said to have gained around 50 seats while the bloc headed by former Interim Prime Minister Iyad Allawi has secured around 25 seats.
Observers say the only positive development came when a delegation from the Sunni Iraqi Accordance Front (IAF), which contested the elections but was disgruntled with the results and demanded a re-vote, embarked on a visit to Arbil to take part in negotiation efforts to reach a compromise that would allow for fair Sunni representation in the new government. Barazani held separate talks with Adnan Al-Duleimi, leader of the General Conference of the Iraqi People, and Tareq Al-Hashemi, head of the Iraqi Islamic Party, the two main groups comprising the IAF. Yet Sunni figures close to the talks dismissed any idea that the discussions were focussed on government formation but rather on the need to clear doubts surrounding elections results.
"We will not talk about forming a coalition government because there is an obstacle and it has to be removed," Zafer Al-Ani, spokesperson of the Sunni Alliance, told reporters on Sunday. Al-Hashemi, on the other hand, described the talks with Barazani as "encouraging" and hinted that the Sunnis would not boycott the new assembly because "we want to put forward our demands for constitutional amendments." "What we understood from President Barazani is that there is a clear understanding of our fears and concerns," Al-Hashemi said. "We are hopeful," he continued, "that the remainder of Iraqi political groups will take our concerns into consideration and show the required flexibility in order to pave the way for the formation of a national unity government."
The Sunni alliance was not alone in charging widespread fraud in the vote. Allawi accused the Iraqi government of interfering in the elections process and claimed that fraud tainted the entire poll. Allawi conditioned his participation in the new government on the opening of an investigation into vote rigging complaints his coalition put forward to the Independent Elections Commission.
Contradictory statements by UN officials have complicated the picture. While Hussein Hindawi, the Independent Elections Commission chief, was reported to have said that the commission was still looking into hundreds of complaints and that it would declare null elections results in some provinces, including Baghdad, Al-Karkh, Al-Rasafa, Arbil, Ninveh and Kirkuk, to name a few, other officials downplayed the violations as "not significant". "The UN does not see any need for new elections in Iraq," a commission official said, describing the December polls as "credible and transparent".
In a last ditch attempt to put an end to the questioning of the polls' legitimacy, a team of international monitors dispatched by the International Mission for Iraqi Elections was due to arrive in Baghdad this week to assess elections results, though many Sunni figures do not believe it will suggest any radical changes.
Key Sunni figures have called for a national unity government that would not be based on sectarian quotas. This demand, however, has been met with a set of conditions put forward by the Shia-Kurdish coalition. The London-based Al-Hayat newspaper reported on Sunday that the Shia-Kurdish coalition has insisted that in order to allow other political groups to contribute in the formation of the new government, "terrorism must end, the constitution should not be amended, the president's powers are reinforced and federalism is applied in the north, south and Baghdad."
The paper further said that these were some of the conditions reached in an agreement between Al-Hakim and President Talabani. Although there has not been a Sunni response as of yet, it is highly unlikely that any Sunni group will approve of such conditions, particularly with regards to the issue of federalism.
Talabani insisted on Monday that the endgame of negotiations was to form a national unity government that "does not exclude any of the four winning lists". On Tuesday, the Kurdish-Shia coalition was reportedly closer to reaching a deal. Al-Hayat reported what it described as a Shia-Kurdish agreement over the re-appointment of Hoshyar Zebari as foreign minister and that Kurdish concerns over Al-Jaafari's performance have been laid to rest.
Government formation talks were also overshadowed by the continuation of violence and a fuel crisis that cost Oil Minister Ibrahim Bahr Al-Ulum his post. Iraqi security sources said that since last week at least 69 attacks have taken place against civilians, killing or wounding 207 people.


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