Electoral lists declared this week reflect the sectarian and religious division among Iraqi parties but give Sunnis the opportunity for a more active political role, writes Doaa El-Bey A coalition of three main Sunni parties is one of 21 coalitions to contest elections in Iraq on 15 December. Five of these coalitions -- a main Shia alliance, a Kurdish bloc, two Sunni blocs and a secular bloc -- are likely to dominate the poll. Although Sunnis boycotted elections this January and failed to block the passage of the constitution last month, there are indications that they will play an increasingly significant role. December's elections are critical for Sunnis and for Iraq as the National Assembly then elected will sit for four years and be empowered to make amendments to the constitution that so many Sunnis opposed. In a move that signalled greater Sunni participation, three main Sunni parties -- the Iraqi Islamic Party, the Sunni Gathering and the Iraqi National Dialogue -- formed together the Iraqi Accordance Front. The three parties, which boycotted the January elections along with most Sunnis, will field a single candidacy list. Their platform is one of persuading insurgents to lay down their arms and join the political process while pressing the Americans to withdraw troops from Iraq. The other Sunni list running for the December elections is the Iraqi Unified Front, which includes Saleh Mutlak who said that the results of last month's referendum were forged. Whereas the Sunnis have a chance to perform better in December, there is no guarantee that the Shias will repeat their January victory. The United Iraqi Alliance (UIA), which has been the main force in government and has more than half the seats in the present parliament, is not likely to repeat its performance for two principal reasons. First, there is widespread dissatisfaction with the current government and the UIA's role in it. It is accused of failing to curb the insurgency and reach a timetable for the withdrawal of American troops from the country. Second, the top Iraqi Shia leader Ayatollah Ali Al-Sistani has decided not to back the UIA for the December elections. Al-Sistani's support was considered one of the main reasons behind the sweeping victory the UIA secured in January. The list of the UIA included 17 parties and groups, including the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI), Prime Minister Ibrahim Al-Jaafari's Daawa Party and the movement of Shia cleric Moqtada Al-Sadr. This week's electoral list also showed a split in the Shia vote. Ahmed Chalabi, deputy prime minister and a member of the January Shia coalition, has decided not to join the Shia alliance in December. Instead, his party, the Iraqi National Congress, has submitted an independent list. Splitting the Shia vote gives Sunnis a stronger chance to win more seats in the next parliament. Although Sunnis represent 20 per cent of the Iraqi population, they managed to get 22 seats only in the current transitional parliament, having boycotted the January elections. Forming alliances with other big coalitions after the election is likely to give Sunnis more power still in the next parliament. One possible alliance could be forged with the Iraqi National List -- a secular party that gathers a spectrum of political figures, including Shia former prime minister Iyad Allawi, the Communist Party, and Sunnis like Vice-President Ghazi Al-Yawar. Ghassan Al-Attiya, a prominent Iraqi politician, praised the Sunnis for not boycotting the upcoming elections and for forming a strong coalition. "The election is based on proportional representation in every province; that is why it is important for the different parties to form coalitions in order to get strong representation in each province," he said. The other major coalition running for election is Kurdistan Alliance that includes the two main Kurdish parties in Iraq -- the Kurdistan Democratic Party and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan. While all parties are getting ready for December's elections, violence is surging in Iraq. Violent incidents, especially bombings in Baghdad, took the life of more than 40 people this week, including the brother of one of Iraq's two vice- presidents, wounding another 40. Many ascribe violence to the growing ethnic and religious divisions among different political parties in Iraq. Al-Attiya warns there will be no end to political conflict in Iraq until national reconciliation is achieved. "As in South Africa or Sudan, national dialogue and confidence-building measures, and then an agreement among all parties, should precede writing a constitution or holding elections," he said.
