Parliamentary elections may be over, but there are no guarantees Iraq will form a functional government any time soon, writes Salah Hemeid Iraqis went to the polls in large numbers despite threats, intimidation and volleys of mortar and rocket fire, determined to participate in an election that is increasingly being viewed as a key test of whether they can overcome the sectarianism that has divided them since the 2003 US-led invasion. The election for the 325-seat Council of Deputies will determine who runs the violence-torn nation for the next four years, which includes the final withdrawal of American troops by the end of 2011. The elections took place after long delays and amid disputes over candidates' alleged links to the regime of Saddam Hussein, a spate of assassinations and violent attacks. They were dominated by allegations of fraud and irregularities. In short, they illustrated just how difficult it will be for Iraqis to put seven deadly years of sectarian and ethnic strife behind them. On polling day, as mortars and hand grenades rained down on many parts of Baghdad, loudspeakers from Sunni and Shia mosques called on Iraqis to vote. Some clerics challenged people to "creep" into the polls while others called on them to shoot "arrows into the enemies' chest", a clear indication of how sectarianism is still being used to motivate voters. Official results are not expected for a few days but preliminary forecasts suggest that the State of Law Coalition, led by incumbent Shia Prime Minister Nuri Al-Maliki, has fared best in the Arab part of Iraq, outperforming its two main rivals, the largely Shia Iraqi National Alliance and former prime minister Iyad Allawi's Sunni-backed Iraqi List, which ran on a non-sectarian platform. In the Kurdish part of the country Kurdish reformists are expected to capture seats from the alliance of Iraqi President Jalal Talabani's Patriotic Union of Kurdistan and the Kurdistan Democratic Party. Should, as seems likely, no clear frontrunner emerges, the coming weeks -- possibly months -- will be dominated by political deal-making over the composition of the new government and choice of Iraq's next prime minister. As a fierce political struggle looks increasingly inevitable, Iraqis are heading towards another dangerous crossroad. They can either work towards reconciliation that will consolidate Iraq's fledging democracy, or retreat further into the Shia, Sunni and Kurdish sectarian and ethnic divides that have so fractured the nation. One possible danger is the emergence of a weak and dysfunctional coalition government unable to forge a national consensus or effectively address urgent issues. Such a beleaguered government would keep Iraq at a standstill for the next four years just as the Iraqi people are entering a make-or-break period. Sunni insurgents, rebuffed by the large turnout at the polls despite their threats to disrupt the election, pose a key challenge. They could easily return to violence in the event of a prolonged deadlock over forming a new government. A revival of the insurgency could all too easily plunge the country into all-out civil war. The new political map that results from the election could also force novel configurations, pitting old allies against each other in a renewed struggle over power and resources. With each major bloc having either its militia or wielding influence over sections of the army and security forces, it is hard to see how democracy can win out should particular groups feel they are being denied what they consider their fair share of the Iraqi pie. Then there is the possibility that divisions among Kurds could weaken the role of the two main Kurdish parties, pushing them to raise the ceiling of their ethnic demands over other critical issues. Arab Sunnis, backed by Turokman and even some Shias, are expected to oppose Kurdish ambitions in Kirkuk, deepening the Kurdish-Arab divide and making it difficult to put together an ethnically balanced coalition. On Monday Sunni Arab Vice-President Tareq Al-Hashimi, publicly challenged the Kurdish Alliance to name Talabani for a second term as president. "Iraq is an Arab country and it should have an Arab president," he told Al-Jazeera television network. Kurdish leaders immediately blasted the remarks as chauvinistic. A prolonged stalemate in forming the government will also have serious implications on Washington's plans to halve US troops over the next five months. In the long run, and to secure its strategic interests in Iraq and the region, Washington would prefer to see a pro- American government in Baghdad that is willing to help pressure Iran. A spiral of sectarian violence caused by a long delay in installing a new government cannot help but impact on the region. Iran will certainly meddle to prevent Arab Sunnis, probably with links to Iran's arch enemy, the Baathists, from returning to power. Meanwhile, Arab Sunni governments have vested interests in containing Iraqi Shia political groups and weakening their links with Iran. For Arab countries such as Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Egypt, the best possible scenario would be to see Allawi's coalition, which is largely made up of Arab nationalists who view Iran as a threat, in the driving seat. Iraq would again be the Arab World's "Eastern Gate" and Baghdad would once again be central in helping contain Iran. The poll in figures - Number of registered voters: 18.9 million. - No figure released about number of actual voters. - Turnout was 62.5 per cent. - Some 220,000 Iraqis abroad voted in some 16 countries. - 159 political parties in 12 coalitions participated in elections. - Polling stations: About 10,000 centres containing 52,000 voting booths. - Candidates: 6,172. - Parliament has 325 seats. - Mandatory number of women in new parliament: 82 seats. - Election staff: nearly 300,000. - International observers: 500-600. - Iraqi provinces: 18. Competitors and key players State of Law Coalition : Prime Minister Nuri Al-Maliki's Islamic Daawa Party is the backbone of the bloc that includes smaller independent groups of Shia and Sunnis. Early forecasts indicated that the coalition did well in Baghdad and most of the Shia provinces in central and southern Iraq. The bloc is expected to lead the upcoming government in coalition with other Shia and Kurdish parties. The coalition ran on a platform of restoring law and order based on Al-Maliki's record in improving security. The group publicly distances itself from Shia Iran and promises to improve ties with key sceptical Arab states. Iraqi National Alliance : a broad religious Shia coalition led by the Supreme Islamic Council of Iraq (SICI) and backed by followers of radical cleric Muqtada Al-Sadr and the Shia Fadhila Party. The alliance, which ran in Iraq's last election with Daawa as the country's Shia group, is believed to have suffered an embarrassing setback in the election over a public backlash against openly religious Shia parties and poor performances by SICI-supported officials in office. The alliance is believed to be the most closely aligned with Iran. The Iraqi List : led by former prime minister Iyad Allawi, a Shia, the alliance is said to be a secular cross-sectarian bloc. Allawi's main allies are Sunni Vice-President Tareq Al-Hashimi and leader of the Sunni National Dialogue Front Saleh Al-Mutlaq, who was banned from the vote as part of a Baathist purge. The coalition is backed by Shias and Sunnis as well as former members of Saddam's regime. It also enjoys support from the Americans and Arab governments. The bloc faired well and according to some reports it came second after Al-Maliki's State of Law Coalition. The United Iraqi Alliance : led by Interior Minister Jawad Al-Bolani, a Shia who joined forces with some influential Sunni tribal figures such as Ahmed Abu Risha, leader of Al-Anbar Province Awakening Council, and Ahmed Abdel-Ghafour, leader of the Sunni Endowment that cares for Sunni mosques and shrines, on a non-sectarian platform. The bloc scored some success in Sunni and mixed provinces, yet came far behind the main coalitions, which cast some doubt about its future role in government. The Iraqi Accordance : a moderate Sunni group and successor to the Iraqi Accordance Front that represented Sunnis in the outgoing parliament. It is dominated by the Iraqi Islamic Party, an Iraqi offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood. It is likely that the group will join Shia and Kurdish parties in forging a larger cross-sectarian bloc in the parliament, like in 2005. Kurdish Alliance : the bloc is dominated by two powerful Kurdish parties -- the Kurdistan Democratic Party and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan. The Kurdish Alliance was one of the most powerful blocs in the outgoing parliament and succeeded in playing a kingmaker role while pushing Kurdish demands for a larger say in post-Saddam Iraq. The group clashed with the central government over the status of many disputed areas and having autonomy in developing their own oil fields. The alliance will likely have a good showing in the Kurdish autonomous region, but a newcomer to the political scene called "Gorran", or "Change", has been challenging the two parties' dominance in Kurdish politics. Nuri Al-Maliki : the incumbent prime minister is seeking a second four-year term in office, contesting this election as head of the State of Law Coalition. Al-Maliki took office in May 2006 after winning the premiership as a compromise candidate put forward by Shia parties. He has since asserted his authority and overseen the dramatic drop in violence that followed a 2007 US troop build-up. Al-Maliki has been harshly criticised for shutting out his government partners from the decision-making process on key issues, depending instead on a small clique of aides from his Daawa Party. Iyad Allawi : the former prime minister is the face of secular politics in post-Saddam Iraq. A Shia, Allawi has carved a niche for himself in today's Iraq as the answer for urban and educated Iraqis, both Sunni and Shia, who are dismayed with the religious parties and the close ties they maintain with the country's theocratic neighbour, Iran. A physician by training, Allawi was a member of Iraq's outlawed Baath Party until the 1970s. Jalal Talabani : the long-time leader of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) has indicated that he wants to serve a second term as president. He founded the PUK in 1975, one of the two main Kurdish parties that fought Saddam Hussein. The challenge put by his old comrades who defected last year to form Gorran may upset his prospects, in addition to some opposition from Sunni Arabs. Tareq Al-Hashimi : the Sunni vice-president who is a former officer in Saddam's army has been among the harshest critics of Prime Minister Al-Maliki. He quit the Iraqi Islamic Party and ran for parliament in the coalition led by Allawi. He has said he is seeking to be president of Iraq after the election. Ammar Al-Hakim : a 29-year-old cleric who succeeded his father, Abdel-Aziz Al-Hakim, last year as leader of the Islamic Supreme Council in Iraq, which is the largest group in the Iraqi National Alliance. As a grandson of Grand Ayatollah Muhsin Al-Hakim, Ammar Al-Hakim derives much of his power from his family background as one of the most respected Shia clerical dynasties in Najaf. The soft-spoken bearded and turbaned politician is expected to play a key role in forging alliances that will establish Iraq's next government. Muqtada Al-Sadr : the firebrand cleric is not running in the election but has endorsed the vote. At a press conference in Iran -- where he currently takes lessons in theology to become a senior member of the clergy -- he called the election a means of "political resistance". His Al-Sadrist movement is part of the Iraqi National Alliance that was reported to have won a large number of seats in Shia dominated towns. Compiled by Salah Hemeid
