Iraqis will vote for their local governments in two weeks, but how legitimate will the election be, asks Salah Hemeid Is this Iraq's year? The beleaguered nation has finally concluded a pact with the United States that should see American troops pulling out from the Iraqi cities by the end of June 2009 and leaving Iraq entirely by the end of 2011. It will also have a provincial election this month and a parliamentary balloting later this year that are being hailed as a sign that Iraqis are finally extricating themselves from the disaster caused by the 2003 US invasion. The question is: can Iraqis reconstruct their devastated nation and build a political system in which the different religious, sectarian and ethnic groups feel power is shared fairly? These two elections will be decisive in answering the question as to whether Shias, Sunnis and Kurds can overcome their suspicion and bitterness and restore stability to their tormented country. The provisional ballot scheduled for 31 January is designed to give Iraqis elected local governments that can function in a more effective way than the central government. Fourteen of Iraq's 18 provinces are holding elections, with a total of 14,400 candidates representing 407 political entities vying for 440 seats. The three Kurdish provinces and the disputed Kirkuk province will not participate in the balloting after the Kurds rejected the new election law over the status of Kirkuk, which they want to annex into their semi-independent Kurdistan region. The stakes are high: the winners in the provincial elections, widely seen as a dress rehearsal for the December general election, are expected to gain control of the provinces' power and wealth. The new councils can also determine if their provinces remain tightly connected to Baghdad or form autonomous regions, a prospect widely feared as a prelude to division. Also, one reason which makes the contest all but crucial is the disintegration of the alliance of the mainstream Shia and Sunni political groups controlling Baghdad formed after the US invasion with their Kurdish allies. Both these Sunni and Shia parties face major challenges to their claim of leadership of their two religious communities as public support to them is waning. For the Shias, the United Iraqi Coalition which grouped some 16 factions during the 2005 elections, has been falling apart. The Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council, Al-Daawa, the Al-Fadila Al-Islamiya and Shia cleric Muqtada Al-Sadr's Trend are now competing separately while other new smaller local groups are emerging to challenge their domination. On the surface, the breakdown of the power- sharing agreement that was meant to give Shias a larger say in Iraq's politics should not affect the results of this month's election, which is only to choose local councillors. But it will nonetheless be an indication of the standing of groups in the Shia community and indicate their chances in the general election later in the year. Therefore, it is not surprising that the once close allies, mainly the Iraqi Islamic Council and Prime Minister Nuri Al-Maliki's Al-Daawa Party, are now pitched in a cut-throat election campaign which includes smears and ripping down or defacing election posters. One of the outcomes of the election is to determine the fate of Al-Maliki, whose party is trying to win over followers of other Shia groups using its control of government resources. It is widely feared that the two main Shia groups will either resort to election-rigging or make an under-the-table deal to avoid humiliation, and probably lead to bloody post- election fighting. Most Sunnis boycotted the last regional elections in January 2005, and their leaders are now urging them to register and cast their votes this time to avoid marginalisation. On Saturday, Sheikh Ahmed Abdel-Ghafour, head of the Sunni Endowment, urged all Sunnis to take part in the election, calling it "a religious and national duty". "The election is important because it will decide the future of the country," he told a gathering of Sunni Ulamas, or clergies. "Those who elect a candidate on sectarian bases will help destroy the country." But there are serious rivalries among Sunni Arabs themselves, as their Iraqi National Accordance Front is in tatters and no longer functions as a unifying driving force. Its key partner, the Iraqi Islamic Party, is being challenged by the powerful Awakening Councils which are organising themselves in the Sunni provinces and neighbourhoods in Baghdad to defeat the Front. The council, composed of Sunnis who turned against Al-Qaeda, feel they are being sidestepped, and want to push for a share in the government and jobs in the army or the security forces. Their campaign is being hard fought and is often bitter in tone. There were several reports of intimidation and threats of attacks against the Islamic party offices, especially in Al-Anbar, Tikrit and Mosul. Unlike the previous elections, more independent candidates are vigorously campaigning for seats, though they face difficulties such as lack of cash, good organisation and government or militia backing. These independent hopefuls are contesting mostly on a non-ethnic and pan-Iraqi platform, and appeal to Iraqis who are disgruntled with politicians and eager for change. Also tribal leaders who believe the national parliament chosen in 2005 is dominated by greedy sectarian groups and no longer represents their interests are taking part this time in both Shia and Sunni provinces. In northern Baghdad, for example, a coalition of Shia and Sunni tribal alliances has been formed to challenge both Shia and Sunni party groups. Nadeem Al-Timeemi, the coalition leader, said they are fielding candidates on "a non-sectarian pan-Iraqi ticket". "We are giving hope to all Iraqis that there is a way out of this dark sectarian tunnel," he told Al-Ahram Weekly from his headquarters in Al-Taji, north of Baghdad. Just as important as the result will be the conduct of the poll, and the readiness of the losers to accept defeat with grace. One serious fear is vote- rigging and other administrative irregularities. There are already reports of the election campaign being marred by illegalities, with some contenders handing out gifts such as cooking oil, blankets and cash to would-be voters. If Iraqis, who are now taking tentative steps towards democracy, don't feel that their votes are counted honestly, they will sour to this imposed "gift" of the Americans and the fragile stability could collapse, plunging the entire country into a civil war which could be even worse than the one they have been experiencing since the invasion.
