Up to now Iraq's neighbours have often contributed to the country's problems. Can they be its saviours, asks Salah Hemeid The interior ministers of Iraq's neighboring countries are meeting in the Gulf state of Bahrain next week in a fresh bid to coordinate policies following last month's end of the US combat mission in the beleaguered Arab country. The meeting, scheduled for 22 September and hosting representatives from five of Iraq's neighbouring countries in addition to Egypt, Bahrain, the UN, the Arab League and the Organisation of the Islamic Conference, will also be a venue for discussing the seven-month-old crisis over the formation of a new government in Iraq. Describing the meeting as a milestone, Arab League Undersecretary-General Ahmed bin Heli said that those attending the meeting were expected to discuss the "means of enhancing cooperation and coordination on helping Iraq control its borders and combat terrorism". Officials from Iraq's neighbouring countries have been meeting on an occasional basis since 2004 but are sharply divided over the country's future, jockeying for power and influence. The question now is whether they will be able to forge a regional strategy for the country after the US withdrawal. Foreign ministers of the six-member Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) met in Saudi Arabia last week to discuss the volatile situation in the country. In a statement that reflected the Sunni Arab nations' concerns about Iranian influence in Iraq, the foreign ministers called for "expediting the formation of an Iraqi government away from sectarian, ethnic and foreign interventions". Secretary-General of the GCC Abdel-Rahman Al-Attiya expressed the hope that the meeting in Bahrain would help "ongoing efforts to preserve Iraq's unity, sovereignty and independence." Many Iraqis worry that the jockeying for power in Iraq could now take on alarming new dimensions, with the Obama administration saying that it will pull out the remaining US troops from the country next year. Sunni Arab nations led by Saudi Arabia are determined to check Iranian expansionism in the region and Shia domination of Iraq by backing an Iraqi Sunni coalition led by former prime minister Iyad Allawi, a secular Shia. Turkey, worried about Iraqi Kurdish separatism and trying to block moves towards Kurdish independence, has also been backing Allawi. Iran, on the other hand, is determined to see Iraq's Shias retain the dominant role they have enjoyed in government since the 2003 US-led invasion, as well as, by extension, to maintain Tehran's expanded influence in Baghdad. Syria, an Iranian ally and rival to Saudi Arabia on many regional issues, is pursuing its own agenda, trying to make Iraq a trump card in its struggle with the United States and Israel. With another crisis now looming with Iran over its nuclear programme, the question is how far Iraq's Arab neighbours will be ready to compromise with Iran, even as influence in the country is shifting towards Tehran. Another question is whether the US will in fact completely withdraw its forces from Iraq, which has the longest border of any country with Iran, taking into consideration the fact that any decline in the US military presence in the country will increase Iran's role in Iraq. There have been signs that Washington might be having second thoughts on precisely this issue, particularly if the Iraqi political groups fail to form a new government and insurgents in the country continue their violent campaign to bring one down. Last week, only five days after US President Barack Obama declared an end to US combat operations in Iraq, US soldiers returned to combat operations in the heart of the Iraqi capital Baghdad. On 5 September, American troops helped Iraqi soldiers battle insurgents in downtown Baghdad, repelling a major attack against Iraqi troops who had been trained to defend the capital against terror attacks. At least 18 people were killed and 39 injured in the midday strike in which a group of suicide bombers and gunmen attempted to storm the headquarters of Iraq's 11th army division. The daring attack, carried out against the army compound in a busy market district alongside the Tigris River, highlighted the continued dependence of the Iraqi security forces on American expertise and equipment. It was the first major assault in Baghdad since Obama's address to the American public last week, in which he said that US combat operations were over in Iraq and it was now time to "turn the page" on the country. Though no Americans were reported hurt in the attack, it was a reminder that US soldiers could in future resume fighting in the country should that be considered necessary. The attack also underscored the ambiguity of the US military mission in Iraq after Obama declared the end of combat operations, and it raised concerns about the Iraqi army's ability to confront the insurgents, who have been stepping up attacks on the security forces over recent weeks. With insurgent violence still simmering, more such incidents may occur in the future, as the insurgents attempt to undermine the Iraqi army and police and the US forces reduce their role. There are now six brigades, or some 50,000 US soldiers, left in Iraq, these made up of combat troops whose official mission is to offer advice and assistance to the Iraqi army. About 4,500 US special forces soldiers also still conduct regular combat operations alongside Iraqi counter-terrorism forces. Under the terms of the US security agreement with Iraq, US soldiers no longer have the right to conduct unilateral combat operations in Iraqi cities and have first to be requested to do so by the Iraqi authorities. However, it is becoming increasingly clear to many in Iraq's defense establishment, as well as within the US military, that Iraqi security forces will need US military assistance for many years to come. Last week, Iraqi Defence Minister Abdel-Qader Obeidi said that some form of US military presence will be needed in Iraq at least until 2016. This would be needed to provide training, support and maintenance for the vast quantity of military equipment that Iraq is buying from the United States, he said. In addition, Iraq will continue to need help with intelligence gathering after 2011, and the fledgling Iraqi air force would require US assistance at least until 2020, Obeidi said. In an interview last month, chief of staff of the Iraqi armed forces General Babakir Zebari predicted that there would be a need for US forces to remain in Iraq until 2020, saying that he would like to see the US maintain "three or four bases" in the country to help deter possible threats from Iraq's neighbours. US officials have said that the Iraqi army will need assistance beyond 2011 if the political process remains deadlocked and security deteriorates. All this makes Iraq vulnerable to attempts by neighbouring countries, especially Iran, to influence the country's domestic politics, and Washington might have a stake in trying to prevent this from happening. Iran campaigned hard to prevent the signing of Iraq's 2008 security agreement with the US, and it will probably exert pressure on its Shia allies in Baghdad to try to head off any long-term US presence in the country. How much of this the officials from Iraq's neighbouring countries meeting in Bahrain this month will have on their agenda remains unknown. It is no secret that since the US occupation of Iraq these countries have been meddling in Iraqi affairs in attempts to gain a foothold in the war-torn country. Will they now be able to use the Bahrain meeting to make radical changes in favour of Iraq's stability without neglecting their own interests? The prize is potentially huge, since a peaceful Iraq would be a signal achievement, not just for Iraqis, but also for the region as a whole.
