Egypt invites US investment in ports, shipping, and rail sectors    Finance Ministry launches €10M fund to support PPP project preparation    Public Prosecution to transfer 200kg of refined gold to CBE: Shawky    Egypt inks $121m oil, gas exploration deals with Apache, Dragon Oil, Prenco    Egypt's Foreign Minister, Pakistani counterpart meet in Doha    Egypt condemns terrorist attack in northwest Pakistan    Emergency summit in Doha as Gaza toll rises, Israel targets Qatar    Egypt renews call for Middle East free of nuclear weapons، ahead of IAEA conference    Egypt's EDA, Korean pharma firms explore investment opportunities    Egypt's FM heads to Doha for talks on Israel escalation    Egypt strengthens inter-ministerial cooperation to upgrade healthcare sector    Egyptian government charts new policies to advance human development    Egypt advances plans to upgrade historic Cairo with Azbakeya, Ataba projects    Egyptian pound ends week lower against US dollar – CBE    Egypt hosts G20 meeting for 1st time outside member states    Lebanese Prime Minister visits Egypt's Grand Egyptian Museum    Egypt to tighten waste rules, cut rice straw fees to curb pollution    Egypt seeks Indian expertise to boost pharmaceutical industry    Egypt prepares unified stance ahead of COP30 in Brazil    Egypt recovers collection of ancient artefacts from Netherlands    Egypt harvests 315,000 cubic metres of rainwater in Sinai as part of flash flood protection measures    Egyptian, Ugandan Presidents open business forum to boost trade    Al-Sisi says any party thinking Egypt will neglect water rights is 'completely mistaken'    Egypt's Sisi warns against unilateral Nile measures, reaffirms Egypt's water security stance    Egypt's Sisi, Uganda's Museveni discuss boosting ties    Egypt, Huawei explore healthcare digital transformation cooperation    Greco-Roman rock-cut tombs unearthed in Egypt's Aswan    Egypt reveals heritage e-training portal    Sisi launches new support initiative for families of war, terrorism victims    Egypt expands e-ticketing to 110 heritage sites, adds self-service kiosks at Saqqara    Palm Hills Squash Open debuts with 48 international stars, $250,000 prize pool    On Sport to broadcast Pan Arab Golf Championship for Juniors and Ladies in Egypt    Golf Festival in Cairo to mark Arab Golf Federation's 50th anniversary    Germany among EU's priciest labour markets – official data    Paris Olympic gold '24 medals hit record value    A minute of silence for Egyptian sports    Russia says it's in sync with US, China, Pakistan on Taliban    It's a bit frustrating to draw at home: Real Madrid keeper after Villarreal game    Shoukry reviews with Guterres Egypt's efforts to achieve SDGs, promote human rights    Sudan says countries must cooperate on vaccines    Johnson & Johnson: Second shot boosts antibodies and protection against COVID-19    Egypt to tax bloggers, YouTubers    Egypt's FM asserts importance of stability in Libya, holding elections as scheduled    We mustn't lose touch: Muller after Bayern win in Bundesliga    Egypt records 36 new deaths from Covid-19, highest since mid June    Egypt sells $3 bln US-dollar dominated eurobonds    Gamal Hanafy's ceramic exhibition at Gezira Arts Centre is a must go    Italian Institute Director Davide Scalmani presents activities of the Cairo Institute for ITALIANA.IT platform    







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No time to put climate science on ice
Published in Daily News Egypt on 08 - 02 - 2010

NAIROBI: The science of climate change has been on the defensive in recent weeks, owing to an error that dramatically overstated the rate at which the Himalayan glaciers could disappear. Some in the media, and those who are skeptical about climate change, are currently having a field day, parsing every comma and cough in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) 2007 assessment.
Some strident voices are even dismissing climate change as a hoax on a par with the Y2K computer bug. As a result, the public has become increasingly bewildered as the unremitting questioning of the IPCC and its chair assumes almost witch-hunting proportions in some quarters.
The time has really come for a reality check. It is quite right to pinpoint errors, make corrections, and checked and re-check sources for accuracy and credibility. It is also right that the IPCC has acknowledged the need for ever more stringent and transparent quality-control procedures to minimize any such risks in future reports.
But let us also put aside the myth that the science of climate change is holed below the water line and is sinking fast on a sea of falsehoods.
Over the course of 22 years, the IPCC has drawn upon the expertise of thousands of the best scientific minds, nominated by their own governments, in order to make sense of the complexity of unfolding environmental events and their potential impacts on economies and societies. The Panel has striven to deliver the "perfect product in terms of its mandate, scientific rigor, peer review, and openness, and has brought forward the knowledge - but also the knowledge gaps - in terms of our understanding of global warming.
Its 2007 report represents the best possible risk assessment available, notwithstanding an error - or, more precisely, a typographical error - in its statement of Himalayan glacial melt rates.
One notion promulgated in recent weeks is that the IPCC is sensationalist: this is perhaps the most astonishing, if not risible claim of all. Indeed, the Panel has more often been criticized for being far too conservative in its projections of, for example, the likely sea-level rise in the twenty-first century. Indeed, caution rather than sensation has been the Panel's watchword throughout its existence.
In its first assessment, in 1990, the IPCC commented that observed temperature increases were "broadly consistent with predictions of climate models, but it is also of the same magnitude as natural climate variability. The second assessment, in 1995, said: "Results indicate that the observed trend in global mean temperature over the past 100 years is unlikely to be entirely natural in origin.
In 2001, its third assessment reported: "There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities. By 2007, the consensus had reached "very high confidence - at least a 90% chance of being correct - in scientists' understanding of how human activities are causing the world to become warmer.
This does not sound like a partial or proselytizing body, but one that has striven to assemble, order, and make sense of a rapidly evolving scientific puzzle for which new pieces emerge almost daily while others remain to be found. So perhaps the real issue that is being overlooked is this: confronted by the growing realization that humanity has become a significant driver of changes to our planet, the IPCC, since its inception, has been in a race against time.
The overwhelming evidence now indicates that greenhouse-gas emissions need to peak within the next decade if we are to have any reasonable chance of keeping the global rise in temperature down to manageable levels. Any delay may generate environmental and economic risks of a magnitude that proves impossible to handle.
The fact is that the world would have to make a transition to a low-carbon, resource-efficient future even if there were no climate change. With the world's human population set to rise from six billion to nine billion people in the next half-century, we need to improve management of our atmosphere, air, lands, soils, and oceans anyway.
Rather than undermine the IPCC's work, we should renew and re-double our efforts to support its mammoth task in assembling the science and knowledge for its fifth assessment in 2014. What is needed is an urgent international response to the multiple challenges of energy security, air pollution, natural-resource management, and climate change.
The IPCC is as fallible as the human beings that comprise it. But it remains without doubt the best and most solid foundation we have for a community of more than 190 nations to make these most critical current and future global choices.
Achim Steineris Executive Director of the United Nations Environment Program, which co-hosts the IPCC. This commentary is published by DAILY NEWS EGYPT in collaboration with Project Syndicate (www.project-syndicate.org).


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