Egypt's economy is expected to grow 4.5 per cent in the 2024/25 fiscal year, up 0.7 percentage points from the April projection, the World Bank said in its latest report on Wednesday. In its MENAP Economic Update – October 2025, the World Bank cited stronger reform momentum, renewed external support, and rising investment activity. "Growth trends were further sustained by stronger exports and private consumption and a pickup in private investment, especially as projects backed by the United Arab Emirates shift." the report read. "Building on this momentum, growth is expected to average 4.6 percent over FY 2024/25 to 2026/27." The upgraded forecast reflects a sharp rebound from 2.4 per cent growth in FY 2023/24. A stronger-than-estimated GDP performance between January and March 2025, at 4.8 per cent, was driven by low-base effects, improved policy credibility following exchange rate liberalisation, fiscal discipline through public investment caps, and subsidy rationalisation. According to the report, Egypt's growth is now projected at 4.5 per cent in FY 2024/25, 4.3 per cent in FY 2025/26, and 4.8 per cent in FY 2026/27. The World Bank noted that the latest forecast represents an upward revision of 0.7 percentage points for the current fiscal year and 0.2 percentage points for the next. While the economic impact of the Gaza conflict on the broader Middle East and North Africa region has so far been "relatively contained," Egypt has faced notable spillover effects due to its proximity and regional role. These include gas import disruptions, airspace closures limiting cargo and tourism flows, and mounting migration pressures. Egypt's Suez Canal has also seen major losses due to maritime rerouting through the Cape of Good Hope amid Red Sea insecurity. The World Bank estimated that between December 2023 and July 2025, Egypt lost roughly $11 billion in canal revenues and foreign exchange inflows. Despite some recovery in early 2025—supported by a temporary 15 per cent discount on transit fees—shipping traffic remains highly sensitive to regional security conditions. The report also highlighted Egypt's growing refugee burden, noting a 145 per cent increase in refugees and asylum seekers since the start of the conflict in Sudan. Beyond short-term pressures, the World Bank emphasised the need to unlock women's participation in the labour market. It said that eliminating barriers that prevent women from working could boost GDP per capita by 20–30 per cent in Egypt, Jordan, and Pakistan—the highest potential gains globally. In Egypt, specifically, matching female employment rates with men's could lift GDP per capita by nearly 50 per cent. Attribution: Amwal Al Ghad English Download
