Egypt's economy grew by an estimated 4.0 per cent in the fiscal year ending June 2024, slightly higher than the 3.8 per cent forecast in April, according to a Reuters poll. Growth is projected to accelerate to 4.6 per cent in FY2024/25, supported by IMF-backed reforms and stronger manufacturing. After a slowdown to 2.4 per cent in FY2023/24, the government pushed ahead with an $8 billion IMF programme and secured $35 billion in UAE investment, including a major Mediterranean land deal. Inflation, which peaked at 38 per cent in September 2023, eased to 14.9 per cent in June 2024 but remains high. Economists expect inflation to fall to 12.5 per cent in 2025/26, 9.5 per cent in 2026/27, and 7.3 per cent in 2027/28—still above the central bank's 5–9 per cent target by Q4 2026. Egypt has pledged to phase out fuel subsidies, which could keep inflation elevated in the short term. The pound currency, floated in March 2024, is expected to weaken further, reaching 51.1 per dollar by June 2026 and 52.9 by June 2027. It currently trades at 48.6. Interest rates, now at 25.0 per cent, are projected to fall to 17.5 per cent by end-2025/26 and 13.0 per cent the year after. The central bank cut rates by 325 basis points in April and May but adopted a cautious stance in July amid oil market volatility and global uncertainty. Attribution: Reuters Subediting: M. S. Salama
