The Somali government is wrestling with the militant Islamists over political legitimacy, and much else amid a redoubtable reconciliation conference in Mogadishu, writes Gamal Nkrumah Somalia needs a forceful regulator. Ethiopia currently plays that somewhat unthankful role. Addis Ababa must be fair, but not feeble. In other words, it must master a political tightrope. The Somali national reconciliation conference took place in the Somali capital Mogadishu amid much fanfare on 15 July. President Abdullah Youssef presided over the opening procedures. He was assisted by his astute Prime Minister Ali Mohamed Gedi. Conspicuously absent were the Council of Islamic Courts (CICs), the militant Islamist organisation that had ruled virtually all of central and southern Somalia for at least six months in 2006. The CICs governed Somalia with an iron fist from their stronghold of Mogadishu. Following the over-running of Somalia by Ethiopian troops at the instigation of the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) of the Somali president, the city has been under the control of Ethiopian and Ugandan troops under the mandate of the African Union. It would be sheer sleight of hand, but there are historical precedents for Ethiopian interference in the domestic affairs of its weaker neighbours. The Somali president floated the idea of restricting the national reconciliation conference to clan leaders and tribal elders. Addis Ababa readily agreed. Ethiopia has long held sway over the political affairs of the Horn of Africa. However, Ethiopia's hegemony was never complete. There were always other rivals or competitors for the domination of this most strategic part of Africa. The Somali president reiterated his government's complete control of the capital and its environs. Such rhetoric would raise few eyebrows if it came from the CICs. The truth is that the TFG'S hold over Mogadishu is at best tentative. This puts the Somali president in a quandary. "The CICs have been defeated militarily and humbled politically," Somali Ambassador to Cairo Abdallah Hassan Mahmoud told Al-Ahram Weekly. Addis Ababa, in conjunction with the TFG, has issued a deadly warning to the CICs' leaders. The hunt is now on for CIC fugitives, Ambassador Mahmoud assured. The TFG shows no sign of being conciliatory to the CICs' leaders in their hiding places in Eritrea and Yemen and the remote backwaters of the sprawling Somali countryside. The CICs leaders, in turn, are defiant. They are plotting their triumphant return to power. That pressure is far from being confined to Mogadishu. CICs leaders have gone into hiding, but they are still a force to reckon with. Moreover, they have a large and dynamic constituency in Somalia and across the Horn of Africa. "Ethiopian troops are in Somalia at the behest of the Somali government. As soon as the Somali TFG demands our departure, we will withdraw. We are also working closely with the African Union and the United Nations," Ethiopia's Ambassador to Cairo Ibrahim Idris told the Weekly. The TFG, too, is in a defiant mood. The Somali president expressed confidence in his capacity to enforce peace and stability in Somalia. That is something Washington is apparently now persuaded the Somali president would be good at. The United States has re-entered the war-torn country's fraught politics from the backdoor. But despite these hopeful noises, there are quiet misgivings about the powerful role of the warlords within the TFG. The arrogance of some of the warlords who have caused much suffering and devastation in Somalia in the past decade, is a stain on the TFG record. And, the aloofness of the Somali public from these warlords is palpable. The intrepid Somali leader is now on his way to a different sort of hostile environment: now he has to deal squarely with Somali civil society. He has to woo the populace at large and prove that he is the strong president of a viable Somalia. He already boasts several triumphs -- clamping down on dissenters, laying the foundations for a sovereign Somalia and overthrowing the CICs regime. But his critics counter that each one of those achievements contain within them the seeds of further trouble. Maybe the national reconciliation conference can proceed without popular enthusiasm. However, there is the challenge of winning over the Somali people's hearts and minds. And, the TFG must coax them away from the CICs. However, the national reconciliation conference alienated the CICs further. The CICs' leaders cultivated the image of the irreconcilable hard men. The new power-sharing plan excludes the CICs leaders from the decision-making process. The TFG is insisting on tackling the question of government from a tribal perspective. Clan leaders and tribal elders are to determine the political future of Somalia. The TFG leaders are determined to run the country on a tribal basis. The non-tribal CICs leaders have, in turn, resolved to turn the country into a non-tribal theocracy. There was almost no debate about the future role of the CICs in Somali politics and the decision-making process in the country. The Somali national conference itself is an unscientific measure of popular concerns. Ironically, apathy has its consolations. The Somali people have by and large adopted a wait and see attitude toward the TFG. It seems likely that any revised constitutional accord emerging from the national reconciliation conference will be cooked up in semi-secret. Then, there is the question of foreign interference. Washington believes that with Ethiopian support it can oversee the weird and impenetrable politics of the Horn of Africa. There are reasons why apathy might have grown. The people of Somalia have long bourne the unbearable weight of war. Let sleeping CICs leaders lie.
