The militant Islamists of Somalia are licking their wounds and feeling their loss, yet the secular government is wobbling still, writes Gamal Nkrumah The best way to get a sense of Somalia's current state of affairs is to look at the manner in which its leaders are treated at both regional and international forums. The country has been in a state of lawlessness and political chaos, ever since the regime of the late Somali strongman Siade Barre was ousted from power in 1991. After all these years, Somali leaders were treated as little more than pariahs by their counterparts around the world. Indeed, there was no clear Somali leadership, and fiefdoms such as Somaliland in northwestern Somalia and Puntland in the northeastern part of the country declared themselves self-styled autonomous states. The leader of one such fiefdom, the current head of the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) of Somali President Abdullah Youssef emerged as a compromise candidate to lead his country. His credentials were impeccable -- he ran his fiefdom efficiently. Indeed, Puntland was considered one of the most prosperous of the autonomous enclaves, with a bustling trade with the Arabian Peninsula, the Indian Sub-Continent and other parts of the Horn of Africa. Security was guaranteed in Puntland. And, Youssef had as an ally the strongest regional power, which is Ethiopia. Moreover, his Prime Minister Ali Mohamed Gedi is among the most outspoken secularists in the country, as well as being a suave intellectual. At the regional and international forums, Youssef and members of his government were treated with deference and respect. And, nowhere was this more apparent than at the eighth African Union (AU) summit in the Ethiopian capital Addis Ababa which took place this week. There was an open discussion among all the stakeholders at the Addis Ababa meeting, in which Youssef expressed his gratitude to his Ethiopian hosts for having routed the militias of his militant Islamists foes. However, behind the pomp and ceremony of the AU summit meetings, and despite the diplomatic niceties, the Somali president was seen as little better than an Ethiopian protégé by the assembled African heads of state and government. The clock is ticking as far as Somalia is concerned. The comforting news for anyone with the interest of Somalia at heart is that Youssef and the TFG have agreed to hold a national reconciliation conference with the more moderate factions of the now virtually defunct Council of Islamic Courts (CICs). However, the view of Somalia among its nationals is somewhat schizophrenic. President Youssef feels very much at home in Addis Ababa, and he received the red carpet treatment in the Ethiopian capital, where he met distinguished members of the international community. Amongst these was United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki Moon, who was in Addis Ababa to attend the AU summit. He also conferred with the EU Commissioner for Development and Humanitarian Aid, Louis Michel. All concurred that there is need for a national reconciliation conference, with all-inclusive political talks between non-militant Somali leaders -- Islamists and secularists alike. The Somalis are expecting $20 million from the EU and $40 million from the US, which will be allotted to buttress the proposed deployment of 8,000 AU peace-keeping troops in Somalia. The TFG, never reluctant to jump its own bandwagon, is now demonstrating an uncharacteristic confidence in the regional and international arena. What is striking about Somalia is that the CICs fortunes seem to have taken a sharp nosedive. But, will they peacefully yield their place to the TFG? Broadly speaking, it appears that the CICs are split politically on the question of dealing with the TFG. Some CIC leaders have opted for dialogue with the TFG, others have chosen the warpath instead. It would have been easy for the captured leaders of the CICs to have spoken bitterly, but they have proven to be extremely flexible, given their previously uncompromising political posturing. The CICs were popular in Somalia because they instilled a strong sense of national unity. Somalis cherish the notion of independence, and they have a strong sense of nationhood. Somalia, unlike Ethiopia, has never been a multi-ethnic, multi-religious empire. It has never even been a unified state, but, rather a nation of independent tribesmen wandering about the sprawling arid country. The traditional nomadic Somali lifestyle has historically had some highly positive characteristics. However, it also has it negative features. The rapid rise of the CICs threw the Ethiopians into consternation. They are still sly enough to stir up trouble by roiling the already tense border. More to the point, Kenya handed over a considerable number of CICs leaders to the TFG. Apparently, the bulk of the CICs leadership fled to Kenya after their forces were routed by the Ethiopians in southern Somalia. But the forces of the CICs are still a power to be reckoned with.
