The Somali president is on a charm offensive in Western capitals as he loses his grip at home, writes Gamal Nkrumah s "My government has no power. We need international support to restore law and order in Somalia," Somali President Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed told reporters in London during a trip to Britain last week. "It is my government's responsibility to make Somalia peaceful but we can't do that all alone, we need some backing." Such an admission hints at why it is uphill for the Somali president at the moment. Time, indeed, seems to be running out for Sheikh Sharif. Yet, many inside Somalia and abroad believe that it is up to him to stop the rot in the country. Even so, his disadvantages are such that it is difficult to see how he can contain the mayhem there. The Islamists of Somalia understand that Sheikh Sharif's government needs a rescue plan. His leadership is embarrassingly ineffective. The Islamist Alliance for the Re-Liberation of Somalia (ARS), the country's most influential political group, has as its most potent component the militant Islamist group Al-Shabab (Youth). ARS is headed by the redoubtable Sheikh Hassan Dhaher Aweis who also doubles as the leader of Al-Hizb Al-Islami (Islamic Party), the junior parter in ARS. Aweis has urged his supporters to wage a jihad against "infidels" of the African Union peacekeeping mission in Somalia (AMISCOM). The turgid religious discourse of yesteryear when both Aweis and Sharif were esteemed judges in the Islamic Courts is now translated into a bitter armed struggle. Tapping into a sense of betrayal among those Islamists who have previously looked to the Somali president as a national saviour when he served as a prominent member of the now defunct Union of Islamic Courts (UIC) Aweis urged his followers to "fight until total victory". ARS forces already control key suburbs of the Somali capital Mogadishu and are knocking on the doors of the very seat of power in the country. Ominously, as far as the anti-Islamists are concerned, reports by Kenyan intelligence this week identified Ahmed Al-Fazoul, aka Fazoul Abdallah, as the new leader of Al-Shabab. Fazoul was declared Al-Shabab new chief after the former leader of the group Saleh Ali Nahban was gunned down in mysterious circumstances in what was described as an American anti-terrorist strike in Somalia. Fazoul was indicted by a New York court of masterminding the 1998 bombings of the United States embassies in Nairobi and Dar Al-Salam, respectively the Kenyan and Tanzanian capitals. The US, in spite of repeated denials of involvement in the Somali civil war, is already in over its head, precisely because the international war against terrorism led by Washington has identified Al-Shabab and Hizb Al-Islam as two groups with strong connections to Al-Qaeda. The Rewards for Justice Programme of the US Department of State has offered a $5 million reward on anyone who divulges information leading to the capture of Fazoul. Still, US officials are adamant in their refusal to get entangled in the Somali morass. Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs Johnnie Carson this week reiterated that Washington does not want to get embroiled militarily in Somalia and that it is not backing the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) militarily. "There is no desire to Americanise the conflict in Somalia," Carson stressed. "We are not providing nor paying for military advisors for the TFG," he stated categorically. He did, however, acknowledge that the "US policy in Somalia is guided by our support for the Djibouti peace process, an African- led initiative which enjoys the support of the Inter-Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD)." IGAD is an East African regional economic grouping that includes Somalia. "The Djibouti peace process has also been supported by the United Nations, the European Union, the Arab League and the Organisation of Islamic Conference. It also enjoys the support of the African Union and key states in the region," a clear reference to Ethiopia and Kenya, two of Somalia's neighbours and IGAD members with a vested interest in containing the deplorable security and humanitarian situation in Somalia because they both are home to millions of ethnic Somalis. Leaders of the "moderate" Sufi-based Somali Islamist organisation Ahl Al-Sunna Wal-Jamaa have been converging on the Ethiopian capital Addis Ababa for peace talks with the Ethiopian government and the TFG. Meanwhile, the AU this week renewed its appeal to the UN Security Council to impose a no-fly zone over Somalia and to blockade sea ports through which arms are shipped to militant Islamist groups such as Al-Shabab and Hizb Al-Islam. Al-Hizb Al-Islami is now determined to turf the forces loyal to the TFG of President Sharif Sheikh Ahmed out of their strongholds in central and southern Somalia. Al-Hizb Al-Islami, one of the most powerful military forces in contemporary Somalia, is battling against the Somali president. Sheikh Sharif is playing his hand shrewdly, and he knows that the greatest challenge to Mogadishu is the militant Islamist one. Since the toppling of the Siad Barre in 1991, Somalia has not had a truly functional government. And, Somalis and those who are familiar with Somali affairs understand that only a professed Islamist government can bring things under control. Yet the omens augur ill. A Somali woman was stoned for adultery and the human rights situation is fast degenerating. The 20-year-old divorcee paid a terrible price for her liaison with her paramour who was administered 100 lashes. A man was stoned to death for adultery in the port of Merka. His pregnant girlfriend's life was spared until she gave birth a few months later. Meanwhile, a 13-year-old girl was stoned to death in the southern port of Kismayo. So how can the seventh president of Somalia contain the situation with militant Islamists on the rise in his war-torn country? The Somali president urged insurgents to embrace peace. He is determined to engage the powerful insurgents in dialogue. Prime Minister Omar Abdel-Rashid Shamarke and Parliament Speaker Sheikh Adan Madobe are backing the president, whatever that's worth. Mayor Abdel-Razeq Mohamed Nour of Mogadishu urged residents to leave the city as soon as they can and to leave their belongings behind. An estimated half of the city's residents have fled Mogadishu. "We urge civilians to flee from the battle zones and go at least 2km away to avoid being hit," Nour warned his people. History suggests that with the right political leadership, Somalia is quite capable of seizing the opportunities busy knocking on the country's doors. The country is strategically located and has enormous agricultural potential. Its territorial waters are among the world's richest fisheries. There are no shortages of opportunities for economic development in Somalia provided political stability is secured. The Somali president realises that he has to win others to his side if he is to win the war against the militant Islamists in Somalia. The United Nations Refugee Agency noted that the fighting which is especially intense in the northern Mogadishu suburb of Abdel-Aziz has displaced 33,000 people. An estimated 1.5 million people have been displaced in Somalia as a whole. The humanitarian situation is deteriorating rapidly with wanton death and destruction of property. Against this apocalyptic backdrop, there is a complete absence of strategic debate in the Arab world about Somalia, even though the country is a full-fledged member of the Arab League. Yet many Somali leaders welcome a stronger Arab voice in Somalia's domestic politics. War-weary Somalis are focussed on the future, not the past. Moreover, the whole world now wants to see a strong Somali government in Mogadishu. But that requires political leadership which in much of Somalia is lacking. The Islamists, and especially ARS know that only with the evacuation of foreign troops from Somali soil will the incessant fighting cease. And, only then will the Islamists triumph be complete. However, the Western powers and Somalia's own African neighbours want to see secular government in power, or at least a Somali administration that is "moderate" Islamist like the TFG of Sheikh Sharif's administration propped up by AMISCOM. Yet no Somali leader within the TFG has the moral courage to speak truth to power on this crucial point. It is difficult to capture in a few words the reluctance of most Somalis to openly eschew let alone challenge the power of the militant Islamists of ARS. The instinctive Somali condescension towards secularist forces in the country is deeply entrenched. Over the long-run, most Somalis are convinced that the power of the Islamists determines the destiny of their country.
