Ethiopia is stronger but can only lose in Somalia since historic precedents should trouble Addis Ababa, writes Gamal Nkrumah The flickering flames still light up the nights. Indeed, this proved to be one of the bloodiest weeks in Somalia in 2008. Scores of innocent Somalis, including the elderly, women and children were killed when Ethiopian troops hit two minibuses packed with suspected Islamist sympathisers. This version is, of course, according to the Somali militant Islamists. The Ethiopians, on the other hand, claim one of their armed convoys was attacked when militants of the Union of Islamic Courts (UICs) detonated a roadside bomb near the town of Belawyein in Hiran Province, central Somalia. What is clear is that the power of the UICs is on the resurgence. The battle between the Ethiopians and the UICs fighters flickered and flared with remorseless intensity throughout the past week. In Belawyein, the Somalis dashed forward to clamber over their own dead. The Somalis were in a raging frenzy. Militant fighters of the UICs vowed retaliation. The UICs have disintegrated into warring factions. Or at least into competing ideological strands. Some moderate UICs factions believe that they must engage with the Ethiopians and the TFG and robustly test their intentions. Among this group the most influential is the Alliance for the Re-Liberation of Somalia (the Alliance, or ARS for short). The redoubtable leader of this Eritrea-based group is the articulate and moderate cleric-turned-politician Sheikh Sherif Ahmed. The charismatic sheikh has many followers and devoted supporters. He commands respects among wide segments of the Somali population. He has also made reconciliatory overtures to members of the TFG. The TFG, with massive Ethiopian military backing, overthrew the Islamist UICs government in 2006. However, the disparate factions of what once made up the UICs are determined not to be reduced to hapless spectators as the Somali gory conundrum unravels. Ethiopia, on the other hand, is acutely conscious of its self-image as a regional power. The moderate UICs factions insist that Ethiopia's credibility should be made conditional on its behaving as a responsible power. The massacre of innocent people is unacceptable to Somalis of all shades of political opinion and does not endear the Ethiopians to the Somalis. Somali President Abdullah Youssef flew to the Ethiopian capital Addis Ababa for talks with Ethiopian government officials concerning the rapidly deteriorating security situation in the country. Somalis say that they have been struggling to survive an ordeal considerably more perilous than that of the Iraqis and Palestinians. Scores have been killed on a daily basis and the humanitarian conditions could only be described as deplorable, and that is an understatement. President Youssef's estranged Prime Minister Hussein Nur Adde strongly believes that the Somalis should re-establish their writ in their own country. Youssef is widely regarded as an Ethiopian lackey. But for all the fighting words of the leaders of Somalia, there is a consensus that some kind of truce must be reached. It is against this backdrop that the leaders of the various factions of the UICs are meeting in the Eritrean capital Asmara and in the neighbouring Red Sea city-state of Djibouti simultaneously to discuss peace prospects. They are all acutely conscious that they do not have many options. However, the leaders of the UICs understand all too well their limitations. It is doubtful whether they can effectively resume an all-out war against the Ethiopian troops. Still, they can cause much harm and damage. They are quite capable of inflicting severe blows to the Ethiopians and their Somali allies within the TFG. The main Somali opposition group engaged in the United Nations-sponsored peace talks in Djibouti is the ARS. The TFG and ARS as well as other segments of the Somali political establishment, whatever that means in practice, are preparing themselves for contesting the Somali Constitutional Assembly elections scheduled for 2009. The event is widely seen as a turning point in the country's political future. The militant Islamists, headed by veteran fighter and cleric Sheikh Dhaher Hassan Aweis, have expressed doubts that free and fair elections could be conducted while Ethiopian troops are entrenched in the country. The rallying cry of Aweis is that the Ethiopians must go. ARS leaders, too, would like to see the back of the Ethiopians. The difference between them and Aweis and his ilk is that they recognise that there is merit in engaging the TFG. The Somali president flew to Addis Ababa for consultations with the Ethiopian authorities soon after the grizzly incident. He is in no mood for compromise. However, he said prior to his departure that he would make an effort to meet with opposition figures in Djibouti. While the hardline militant Islamists are determined to fight the TFG and the Ethiopian to the bitter end, ARS has adopted a softer position. ARS and the more militant factions of the UICs have a gentlemen's agreement not to clash violently. This arrangement, nevertheless, broadly endured between periodic bursts of violence. However, the main targets of the Islamists wrath are the Ethiopian troops stationed in Somalia. Militant Islamist organisations called Al-Shabab (The Youth) with alleged links to Al-Qaeda are suspected of carrying out outbursts of violence in Somalia. Somalis, especially those who pay allegiance to either the TFG or ARS would like to see the creation of a Truth and Reconciliation Commission similar to South Africa's. They would also wish for the creation of a UN Peace Building Mission for Somalia as well as the staging of a donor conference for cash-strapped Somalia. Doubts about the credibility and effectiveness of a ceasefire signed between the TFG and the opposition ARS in June have increased of late. Bloody incidents such as those that took place this week reinforce these doubts. In the final analysis, violent outbreaks in Somalia, often instigated by the militant Islamists only serve as grim reminders that politics in this war-torn country is all just a most cruel game.
