All the king's horses

By Gamal Nkrumah
Somalia this week enters a new era as the United Nations commits itself to provide a civilian peace-building mission to the war-torn East African country. "This is a sensible step in the long progress toward an independent, sovereign and united Somalia," Somalia's ambassador to Egypt, Abdallah Hassan Mahmoud, told Al-Ahram Weekly. The UN decision, warmly welcomed by Somali President Abdul-Kassim Salad Hassan, comes at a time when simmering political tensions in the country have reached boiling point, with Somali officials accusing Ethiopia of aiding and abetting opponents of President Salad's administration.
Somalia has faced an extraordinary list of negative external pressures, with disastrous consequences. Ethiopia, the dominant power in the Horn of Africa, is widely seen as the villain of the piece. After bloodying Eritrea's nose in a fierce border dispute, Ethiopia is now flexing its muscles against Somalia. Ethiopia and Eritrea have a long history of military rivalry and have fought three ferocious wars -- in 1977-78, 1982 and 1984.
Somali Prime Minister Ali Khalifa Gelaydh flew to New York last week to address a closed session of the UN Security Council. Gelaydh last October announced his new government, the first internationally-recognised central government in Somalia since 1991, when the late Somali president Siad Barre was ousted from power in a nationwide insurgency, after which Somalia slid into political chaos and mayhem.
At the UN last Thursday, Gelaydh complained bitterly about Ethiopian provocation and interference in domestic Somali affairs. Ethiopia's UN ambassador Abdul-Megid Hussein asked in vain to be included in the Security Council meeting, but was not permitted to attend, at the request of the Somali premier.
Ethiopia's ambassador to the UN vehemently denied that Ethiopian troops were stationed on Somali soil. "It is a national agenda for us that there is peace in Somalia," he protested. Somalia's parliamentary Speaker, Abdallah Derow Issak, claimed he had narrowly escaped a foiled Ethiopian kidnap and assassination attempt. He also warned that Ethiopia was training warlords and militiamen opposed to the Salad regime, with training taking place both inside Somali territory and across the border in adjacent regions of Ethiopia.
The Ethiopian response was unequivocal. Addis Ababa dismissed Somalia's accusations as "calculated attempts to seek scapegoats," as its UN ambassador said. Ethiopia threatened to respond "in the appropriate stern manner" to any attempt to undermine its security.
Recent reports of renewed fighting in Somalia have sent shudders through the international community. The latest round of violence started with a dispute about whether government troops should move in and enforce law and order in the troubled Gedo region. Such disputes reflect badly on all parties -- the Salad administration, Salad's armed opponents and especially the Ethiopian government. In the long run it leads to a sharp increase in the cost of an eventual clean-up and reconstruction, whether measured in lives, resources or international goodwill.
"While there is much work ahead, Somalia's fate now rests squarely with the Somali people. Ethiopia must respect Somali sovereignty," Ambassador Mahmoud told Al-Ahram Weekly. Somali officials assert that Ethiopia is arming forces opposed to the Somali government. They also claim Ethiopia is attempting to create a breakaway state called Jubaland in the Juba River valley, Somalia's breadbasket, and install a puppet government there. "We are very concerned that [tribal and clan elders] under duress will be made to sign documents that will support the creation of this new entity," Somali Premier Gelaydh told the UN Security Council. He stressed that Ethiopian troops had dug deep inside Somali territory. Somali officials say the leader of a breakaway faction of the Somali National Front (SNF), Abdel-Razak Bihi, had invited Ethiopian troops into the Gedo region in southwestern Somalia under SNF control.
The United States last week signalled support for the proposed UN involvement in Somalia. In 1992, US Marines landed on a beach near the Somali capital, Mogadishu, ahead of a UN peacekeeping force. Memories of a disastrous fiasco and subsequent unceremonious exit from Somalia after 18 US servicemen were shot dead by General Mohamed Farah Aideed's forces are still fresh in the minds of many American policy makers. In 1996, following the 1995 UN peace-keepers' withdrawal from Somalia, Aideed was killed by unidentified gunmen and was succeeded as head of the most powerful Somali militia by his son Hussein, a former US Marine. In 1997, Somali clan leaders met in Cairo and the national reconciliation process began in earnest.
Following meetings with Gelaydh, Washington again postponed efforts to persuade the UN to lift its eight-month arms embargo on Ethiopia. The Somali premier pleaded with Security Council members not to lift the embargo, warning that Ethiopia, which was awash with weapons, was bent on destabilising Somalia.
Moreover, Ethiopia enjoys warm relations with several of the Somali government's armed opponents. The Ethiopian-backed Rahanwein Resistance Army (RRA) initially supported the Arta peace process, but it has now become one of Salad's fiercest armed opponents. RRA chairman Hassan Mohamed Nur recently dismissed as a non-starter the National Reconciliation Conference, which was convened last August when clan leaders and leading political figures met to elect a president and parliament.
"Those Arab and European states which are funding Salad's government should know that they are inviting catastrophe of the greatest magnitude. They will be held responsible for what would follow," warned Ali Said Abdi, the RRA official responsible for foreign affairs. Speaking to reporters in the Ethiopian capital, Abdi said he was on a mission to try and persuade the OAU not to support the Salad administration.
Ethiopia has not officially recognised the transitional Somali government elected in Arta. Addis Ababa insists that it cannot formerly recognise the Salad administration until the Somali government mends fences with its main armed opponents, as well as with the two breakaway regions of Somaliland in northwestern Somalia and Puntland in the northeastern corner of the country. Still, Ethiopia says it has "affirmed the Arta peace process."
Osman Hassan Ali Ato, another alleged Ethiopian protégé, also rejected Arta and the recent UN plan. A wealthy arms dealer opposed to President Salad who holds an American passport, the Kenya-based Ato is widely seen as the major instigator of violence in southern Somalia.
Somalia's peace prospects are brightening, though. The militiamen who until very recently controlled Mogadishu's airport, Ballidogleh, voluntarily handed it over to the Salad government in a modest ceremony last month. "The security situation in the Somali capital Mogadishu is commendable. Government forces control most of the city. Mogadishu, a city of nearly two million people, is in many respects safer than many other African capitals. However, there are pockets of resistance," Ambassador Mahmoud conceded. "Our main problem concerns the 30,000 militiamen who roam parts of the countryside and very occasionally strike Mogadishu. Disarming the militiamen is our most urgent task." Nevertheless, the ambassador said he was hopeful and optimistic because the UN had pledged partly to fund and assist the Somali authorities with the operation.
"The warlords' addiction to blood and gore cannot be allowed to ruin the country's chances for lasting peace. The warlords rule by terror, extortion, kidnapping and torture. The world now recognises this and we have overwhelming international support," Ambassador Mahmoud told Al-Ahram Weekly. He said they had frightened away many Somali businessmen, based primarily in the Arab Gulf states, Europe and North America, who were once keen to reconstruct the shattered Somali economy.
A decade after Somalia slid into political anarchy and was divided up between rival warlords and their fiefdoms, the country stands at a crossroads. More than a million Somalis have lost their lives in the anarchy and internecine fighting that ensued. "It is now time for the Somali people to forgive each other and reconcile their differences for the sake of our people," Salad told his people this week. "We have passed through numerous difficulties in those ten years of civil war, and now we have to heal the wounds of war and stand together for the reconstruction of our country." In a strong show of support for Salad, 4,000 Somalis attended a rally this week in Mogadishu.
The Salad administration needs to act preemptively to stymie what looks like a long-term security crisis. This implies the administration's ability to refocus its efforts on consolidating a fractured political coalition and getting on with the business of governing. What must be avoided at all costs is a loss of domestic confidence, credibility and control. The reluctance of the central government to act is rooted in both logistical and financial constraints, and the Salad administration knows that a muddle-through scenario is unacceptable. Whenever clan, local and regional politics are allowed to take centre stage for too long a period, national disintegration sets in. Somalia has much work ahead, and it needs the support of all its neighbours and the international community.
Related stories:
Toss up over Salad 7 - 13 September 2000
Heaven help us 31 August - 6 September 2000
Give peace a chance 31 August - 6 September 2000
Out of Arta 24 - 30 August 2000
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