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Egypt warns of erratic Ethiopian dam operations after sharp swings in Blue Nile flows
Published in Amwal Al Ghad on 23 - 11 - 2025

Egypt's Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation on Saturday accused Ethiopia of "unilateral and unregulated" operations at its contested Blue Nile dam after what it described as sharp and unexpected swings in water releases over recent weeks.
The ministry said the dam operator discharged around 485 million cubic metres of water on 10 Sept., followed by a surge to 780 million cubic metres on 27 Sept., before flows fell back to 380 million cubic metres three days later. Satellite-based estimates also showed the reservoir level dropping by nearly one metre, equivalent to almost 2 billion cubic metres of water, it said.
Cairo, which views the Ethiopian dam as a threat to its water security, said expected drawdowns of the reservoir to its normal operating range did not occur. Instead, Ethiopia abruptly closed the emergency spillway on 8 Oct., cutting daily outflows to 139 million cubic metres and operating only about half of its turbines, the statement said.
It added that Ethiopia later raised reservoir levels close to 640 metres before suddenly increasing releases to about 300 million cubic metres a day on 21 Oct. by reopening the emergency spillway — a measure Egypt said should be reserved for exceptional conditions. Discharges then remained at around 320 million cubic metres for 10 days.
A second closure of the spillway on 31 Oct. brought flows down again, with average releases between 1 Nov. and 20 Nov. rising to about 180 million cubic metres a day — roughly 80 per cent above historical norms, according to the statement.
"These successive actions reflect the absence of a stable, scientifically grounded operating plan," the ministry said, warning that downstream dams had been forced to take precautionary measures to absorb sudden fluctuations. Egypt continues to monitor the water situation through the River Flow Committee, using hydrological analysis, modelling, and satellite monitoring.
Egypt said it had opened the Toshka spillway to relieve excess inflows and maintain stability across its water system, describing the measure as part of a proactive, data-driven management approach based on real-time monitoring and satellite imagery.
The ministry reassured the public that Egypt's water infrastructure, including the High Aswan Dam, was operating "efficiently and under full control" despite what it called the risks posed by continued unilateral Ethiopian dam management.
Attribution: Amwal Al Ghad English
Subediting: Y.Yasser


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