Smothering Somalia with well wishes and little else seems to be a parlour game favoured by donors at this week's Istanbul conference, evinces Gamal Nkrumah Well-meaning friends can be perilous. The Somali example is a case in point. Somalia has this week slid further into its downward spiral, its sad descent into acrimonious polarisation. Part of the problem is that its well-meaning Western friends and African neighbours who wish to sort out Somalia's political difficulties are overwhelming the country's precarious government with meaningless well wishes. Left to their own devices, the Somali protagonists at each other's throats will ultimately determine the winner -- and it is a question of winner takes all. Several politically aligned Islamist forces intensified attacks on the presidential palace and on the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) army bases in the embattled Somali capital Mogadishu. Hundreds of innocent civilians have lost their lives in the battles over the past two weeks. It is unlikely under the present internal dynamics that the TFG will emerge as a winner without the massive support of Western powers and international aid donors. Somali President Sheikh Sherif Sheikh Ahmed was out of the country participating in the International Conference on Reconstruction and Development in Somalia taking place in Istanbul, Turkey, even as his capital was afire. The Istanbul conference was co-convened by the United Nations, and the government of Turkey and Somalia's TFG. UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon officiated over the deliberations urging the international community to step up development aid and humanitarian assistance to the war-ravaged country. "The TFG represents Somalia's best chance in years to escape from the endless cycle of war and humanitarian disaster," the UN secretary-general told participants at the Istanbul conference. He warned against the "dire conditions on land" that "open the way for a surge in piracy at sea". Ban's main concern appears to be to ensure that Somalia's strategic sea-lanes are secured for international trade. While the Somali president was in Istanbul, a palace coup allegedly took place in Mogadishu. He had sacked his Prime Minister Omar Abdel-Rashid Ali Sharmake, a secularist who has no time for Islamists of any kind, a move that pre-empted a backlash by the premier's henchmen. Yet, the Somali president was forced to rescind and to reinstate his ousted premier "for the sake of peace" he explained. Somalia's defence minister, Yusuf Mohamed Siyad blamed the prime minister for inciting the recent spate of fighting. "My soldiers left the northern base because they lacked the required ammunition," the defence minister lamely excused his setbacks in battle. What he failed to explain was that the combined Islamist forces pitted against the government were the driving force and not the premier's faithful followers. "It wasn't the case that my men were overpowered." In actual fact, his men had to beat a hasty retreat from the key Mogadishu neighbourhoods Hodan, Hawawadag and Wardigley. The Somali crisis is no longer just smoldering away. It is alight. Sheikh Sherif is marooned in Turkey, helplessly watching the tragedies of Somalia unravel. He's hardly the man to confront the Captain Hooks of the Indian Ocean, to the chagrin of the US-led Contact Group on Piracy off the Coast of Somalia (CGPCS) established in January 2009. The CGPCS includes Egypt, Japan, Kenya, Saudi Arabia, NATO, the EU, Russia, the UN Secretariat, the kitchen sink, so to speak, not to forget the International Maritime Organisation. The Istanbul Declaration in support of Somalia was duly issued, but in fact the focus was on the waterways and piracy affecting Western shipping. This was not a prudent move to resolve the Somali crisis. Still, Somalia should not follow its benefactors' judgements slavishly. Somalis must work out their own salvation with a sensible policy of national reconciliation. What this policy must provide is clear: democratisation even if it means Islamisation. The driving force for change in contemporary Somalia appears to be Harakat Al-Shabab Al-Mujahideen (The Movement of Youth Fighters) better known as Al-Shabab. It adheres to a strict Wahabbi Islamic code of conduct as the only sanctioned strand of Islam. Mukhtar Ali Robow, a former leader of the now defunct Islamic Courts Union, leads the movement. The former leader of Al-Shabab, Adan Hashi Ayro was killed in a United States missile attack in May 2008, but the movement has tremendous standing among the people of Somalia in spite of its reputation as a militant organisation. It is politically aligned to Hizbul-Islam led by Sheikh Dhaher Aweis, a one-time ally of the beleaguered Somali president. Protesters, in an unprecedented move, burned the black flag of Al-Shabab which has two crossed swords, Saudi- style, and the inscription La Illah Illa Allah, Mohamed Rasul Allah (There is no God but God, Mohamed is God's Messenger). Somali Prime Minister Sharmarke has publicly protested against the atrocities allegedly committed by Al-Shabab, in particular incurring the wrath of militant Islamists in the country. "What is so startling is that all the conclusions are as true about Somalia as they are about Afghanistan," Sharmake warned. Recent clashes demonstrate realignments not to Sharmake's liking. Sufi-inspired groups that have taken up arms against Al-Shabab in the past have recently joined forces in effect with them against the forces of the TFG and the AU peacekeepers. The Sufi militia Ahl Al-Sunna Wal-Jamaa now controls the strategic Golgadud Region of central Somalia. Their leader Mahmoud Sheikh Hassan this week declared that Ahl Al-Sunna Wal-Jamaa has discarded the 7 May agreement in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, with the TFG. Sharmarke and the TFG were hoping -- in vain -- to make political capital out of the divisions among the Islamists. Their house of cards has collapsed.
