Lebanon's election passed smoothly, and the country now has a new prime minister. But forming a government is likely to prove tougher. Lucy Fielder reports from Beirut On two occasions last week, the familiar sound of gunshot reverberated around Beirut's high-rise buildings. Once in the areas dominated by the Shia secularist opposition party Amal, on the expected re-election of Nabih Berri as parliament speaker. One person was accidentally killed during those celebrations. Shots rang out again two days later, when Saad Al-Hariri's Sunni supporters saw the 39-year-old finally take the helm of government, four years after the assassination of his former prime minister father, Rafik. Now, analysts agree, comes the hard part. Al-Hariri, who replaces Fouad Al-Siniora, was appointed by a wide swathe of members of parliament -- all of those allied to March 14 coalition plus 12 from Berri's bloc, after Al-Hariri agreed to back Berri's re-election. Hizbullah MPs did not throw their weight behind Al-Hariri, but their statements show they are not against his premiership. Al-Hariri immediately promised to form a national unity government. The key question in the next three weeks will be whether Al-Hariri's parliamentary majority, whose mandate was renewed in general elections on 7 June, will grant the blocking third to the opposition led by Hizbullah and the Christian Free Patriotic Movement of Michel Aoun. That coalition wants a third-plus-one of the 30 cabinet seats up for grabs, that is, 11, which would allow it to veto any legislation it rejects. Its leaders, especially Aoun, regularly point out they won the popular vote, garnering slightly more than half the ballots cast. But due to the complexities of the sectarian election law the opposition itself pushed for, that did not translate into conquered districts. At stake, as always, is Iranian and Syrian-backed Hizbullah's formidable arsenal for fighting Israel -- the main reason for foreign interest in this tiny country. Two government decisions taken last May to crack down on the group's resistance capabilities led to fierce clashes and a brief armed takeover of western Beirut by the opposition. A senior source from Al-Hariri's Future Movement, who did not want to be named, said despite demands being relayed through the media, no side, including Hizbullah, had yet asked for a blocking third in the behind-the-scenes talks. "Hizbullah wants guarantees on its weapons, but it hasn't talked about it so far during the consultations, that's for the national dialogue table," he said, in reference to interminable negotiations between Lebanon's main political and sectarian leaders to which all main issues are deferred, but which has yet to yield results concerning bones of contention such as the weapons. But he ruled out the opposition being granted a third-plus-one of seats. "First, the new prime minister rejects this. Second, they haven't insisted on this point in the negotiations." But Abdu Saad, an analyst and the head of the Beirut Centre for Research and Information polling centre, said he believed the opposition had no intention of giving up on the third-plus-one, and would not settle for simple assurances that its weapons were safe. "It seems they will not budge and the majority cannot form a government on their own," he said. He did not rule out a deal, such as President Michel Suleiman being granted an extra minister in his share of seats, but one who leaned towards the opposition. "Nobody can afford to go back to the past tensions," Saad said. But he predicted a protracted battle over cabinet seats. Many analysts point out that Hizbullah last May proved its ability -- and willingness -- to fight other Lebanese parties to hold on to the weapons, thereby putting its arsenal beyond the realm of political horse-trading for now. Few analysts will second- guess whether the opposition will get the seats it wants. The president is likely to get three to four ministers, including the defence and the interior portfolio. For his part, Aoun has been insisting on seven ministers, which he considers proportional representation in the cabinet for his party, which despite not faring as well as expected in the elections, is still by far the largest Christian bloc. Many of Al-Hariri's allies, particularly Samir Geagea's Lebanese Forces and former president Amin Gemayel's Phalange, point out that the constitution does not provide for a blocking third. But the constitution does insist on fair political representation for all of Lebanon's major sects. Those two conflicting patterns of logic -- allocating seats by votes according to the majoritarian system but also ruling by sectarian consensus -- fuelled a prolonged stand-off between the two camps before last year's Doha agreement established a unity government with a blocking third for the opposition. Despite these conflicting trends, Paul Salem, head of the Carnegie Middle East Centre in Beirut, said he believed a cabinet would be formed in the next few weeks. "The mood in general is more conducive to the formation than it might have been a while ago," he said. "Internal parties are co-existing reasonably well and the foreign backers have better relations, including Saudi Arabia, Syria, the US, than they did, which is why maybe the elections and so far the negotiations have gone smoothly." Détente between former foes Syria and Saudi Arabia, which back the opposition and the majority respectively, as well as the announcement last week that Washington and Damascus are to re-establish diplomatic ties severed after the elder Al-Hariri's assassination in February 2005, has allowed rapprochement between former foes in Lebanon, Salem said. Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad and Saudi envoy Prince Abdel-Aziz met in Damascus last week, signalling a major breakthrough and sparking talk in Lebanon of a deal on the cabinet. Druze leader Walid Jumblatt, formerly among the most hawkish of the anti-Syrian leaders, has been reaching out to Syria and Hizbullah, but remains a part of 14 March. Aoun, after waging an electoral campaign on promises to fight corruption, largely seen as a dig at billionaire Al-Hariri, his allies and their neo-liberal economic programme, appears to be moving closer to the new prime minister. "You can now be with the US and be good with the Syrians," Salem said. "Al-Hariri has the option of trying to get Aoun closer to him by giving him more seats." Since Hizbullah was also acquiescent in Al-Hariri's nomination, that would not necessarily signify any weakening in the Aoun- Hizbullah alliance. But Sunday night provided a timely reminder that a sudden spirit of reconciliation among leaders was no guarantee of peace. Fierce clashes broke out between armed supporters of Future and Amal in the central Beirut area of Aicha Bakkar and spread rapidly to mixed Sunni-Shia districts. A 30- year-old woman was killed, and the army vowed to open fire on any gunman found on the streets. "What's remarkable is that the leaders can make up over night, but how do you get the people that you've mobilised for so long to also accept that? It doesn't work," Salem said. Such fighting has in the past also been seen as a way of leaders flaunting their power during protracted political battles, while publicly disavowing any link to the violence.
