Just as an agreement on Lebanon's president appeared within reach, political horse-trading raised fears of more protracted struggle, Lucy Fielder reports from Beirut Lebanon postponed a planned parliamentary session to elect a president yet again this week amid squabbles about the make-up of the next cabinet and how to amend the constitution to allow army Commander Michel Suleiman to become head of state. The vote is now set for 17 December, but after eight delays since late September it is unclear whether a deal will be in place before Christmas. Popular Christian opposition leader Michel Aoun, who wants the next prime minister to be a neutral figure after his own presidential ambitions were thwarted, thought it unlikely. Some reports now say a deal may be postponed until the March parliamentary session. Both sides now agree to Suleiman, whom one paper dubbed this week the "consensus general". Since Syrian-backed president Emile Lahoud's term ended on 23 November, Baabda Palace has stood empty for the first time in Lebanon's history. There are fears that a year long political crisis, and an even longer split between those supporting a Western orientation for Lebanon and their opponents, could descend into civil strife. For the near future, drawn-out squabbling appears the most likely scenario. The opposition, led by Hizbullah, wants to find a legal loophole to allow parliament to amend the constitution -- required because Suleiman holds a senior public office -- without passing through cabinet and giving the government de facto legitimacy. But both ways outlined in the constitution have to go through the government. The opposition has considered the cabinet illegal since pulling its six ministers a year ago, arguing that it does not represent the Shia and is therefore contrary to the constitution. Saad Al-Hariri, would-be prime minister and leader of the pro-Western parliamentary majority, told As-Safir this week such controversy was pointless. "We support the amendment of the constitution to save the country, but we refuse to violate the constitution for political feuds." The government held by-elections this year that were recognised by all and the resigned ministers made new appointments in their ministries, Hariri said, proving that they recognise the government. The only minister who has observed his own resignation to the letter is Energy Minister Mohammed Fneish. "There is a contradiction; they are playing a double game," said Amal Saad-Ghorayeb of the Carnegie Endowment's Middle East Centre in Beirut. Hariri and Prime Minister Fouad Al-Siniora are adamantly opposed to any amendment that bypasses the government because it would be tantamount to an admission of illegitimacy, she said. "One of the main sticking points is the Hariri issue. Aoun refuses to have Hariri as prime minister, or anyone close to him," Saad- Ghorayeb said. Many see Hariri as a favourite to be the next prime minister, despite Aoun's objections and reports that Siniora would prefer to stay on. Aoun's allies, including Hizbullah, are believed more inclined to accept a Hariri premiership. But after the loyalty Aoun showed the Shia resistance and political group during last year's Israeli bombardment, despite international and local pressure, Hizbullah will reciprocate by deferring unquestioningly to Aoun. Wrangling over the cabinet constitutes the other obstacle to a historic breakthrough between the two sides. Aoun has proposed a raft of demands to ensure his popularity on the ground is reflected in government and that his political programmes, including his Memorandum of Understanding with Hizbullah, are adopted. The opposition insists on a 45 per cent quota, whereas the 14 March anti-Syrian leadership says everyone would have the same as before and Suleiman would also have his own ministers. Not surprisingly, 14 March accuses Aoun of blocking a deal. Saad-Ghorayeb said a survey by the Beirut Centre for Research and Information this week, showing that 64 per cent of Christians backed Aoun's uncompromising stance, may have influenced the general ahead of this week's scheduled session. "Aoun seems to have been emboldened by these results because he saw that the Christians backed his intransigence." Rosanna Bou Monsef, commentator for pro-government newspaper An-Nahar, saw the hand of Syria and Iran -- who back Hizbullah -- in the obstacles thrown up. The opposition once backed General Suleiman because of 14 March's rejection of a constitutional amendment at the time, she wrote this week. "However, after Suleiman's name was proposed unanimously by the majority, the opposition started to act as though the majority brought a president from his own ranks." "There are strong doubts regarding the fact that this [regional pressure] is being exerted to maintain the vacuum for a longer period, especially after it was proven that tightening the noose around Lebanon not only secured the breaking of the isolation imposed on Syria but also the recognition of Syria's continuing impact on and influence in Lebanon," she added. "A longer vacuum might contribute to securing additional goals in Lebanon through the opposition and outside Lebanon as well." Analysts in both camps believe that a US- Syrian thaw has led 14 March to back down and accept Suleiman, once seen as an opposition candidate because of his good relations with Hizbullah. Druze leader Walid Jumblatt, widely seen as a political weathervane, has softened his formerly hardline rhetoric towards the opposition. In this week's editorial in his Progressive Socialist Party's Al-Anbaa newspaper, he trod a line between two positions. The 14 March's political "concessions", he wrote, "are not to be seen as a sign of defeat or surrender". But he also praised the "sacrifices of the resistance" in gaining Lebanon's independence and advocated incorporating Hizbullah into the army so that it could stand against Israel.
