Tired of drawn-out haggling over cabinet positions, the prime minister-designate put the ball in the opposition's court this week, reports Lucy Fielder from Beirut Lebanon's nearly three-month government crisis escalated this week, when Saad Al-Hariri named a cabinet line-up that was promptly rejected by the opposition. In so doing, Al-Hariri threw down the gauntlet to his opponents, particularly to popular Christian leader Michel Aoun, whom he and his allies accuse of blocking protracted negotiations over cabinet portfolios with impossible demands. Usually, each cabinet position is agreed beforehand. Although Al-Hariri reaffirmed his parliamentary majority with a slim win for his Future Movement and its allies in the 9 June election, the prime minister-designate has agreed to form a national unity government to keep the peace. All sides agreed on 15 seats for the Saudi and Western-backed majority, 10 seats for the opposition, spearheaded by Hizbullah, and five for President Michel Suleiman. This formula is widely seen as giving a "hidden blocking third" to the opposition, which demands a veto on strategic decisions, with an eye to stopping any attempt to seize Hizbullah's weapons. One minister from the president's share would be favourable to the opposition, in effect giving it the third it demands. Al-Hariri's decision to present a line-up to Suleiman for signing without opposition agreement was seen as an attempt to force the opposition's hand and an expression of exasperation with the drawn-out haggling. "This is an invigorating step by Al-Hariri," said Paul Salem, head of the Carnegie Endowment's Middle East centre in Beirut. "This focuses people's attention and will move the patrons abroad along a bit." Salem expected Suleiman to plunge into behind-the- scenes negotiations, but it is unclear that he would be more able than Al-Hariri to bring the wrangling sides to an agreement. The opposition saw Al-Hariri's move as provocative and rejected the notion that he could name the ministers in their share as well as his. Opposition members believe he is trying to undermine Aoun, who did not gain as much as he had hoped in the election but remains by far the most popular Christian leader. Aoun, whom the majority accuses of blocking a deal with impossible demands, has been demanding higher representation and one of the strategic ministries. He wants his son-in-law Gebran Bassil to retain the Telecommunications Ministry, which is rejected by the majority on the grounds that he was not re-elected as an MP, although there is nothing in the constitution that stipulates this. Aoun also wants to name the interior minister, but Al-Hariri's proposal kept the popular Ziad Baroud in his post. All now expect the crisis to drag on in the manner of the presidential nomination, which took six months due to similar power struggles. Karim Makdisi, a professor of political studies and international relations at the American University of Beirut, likened the atmosphere after Al-Hariri's step to the build-up to the events of May last year, when Hizbullah and its allies took over western Beirut and other areas after two government decisions that clamped down on its intelligence and communications networks. Those events have been referred to as the real election in Lebanon, establishing the powerful Hizbullah as a necessary partner in government and showing how far the group will go to retain its arms to resist Israel. "I think this will escalate, this is how things start in Lebanon," he said. "The majority are going to start to create the impression that the opposition are making things worse. There's nothing really stopping this government formation but I now don't think it will happen soon." Makdisi believed the majority wanted to drive a wedge between Hizbullah, Aoun and the other major opposition party, the Shia Amal Party led by Parliamentary Speaker Nabih Berri. "They want Aoun to blow up and start saying erratic things," he said. Aoun has a reputation for outspokenness. Makdisi also believed this was an attempt by the majority to get the international community involved again in Lebanon. Western backing for the anti-Syrian movement was strong when it emerged after the assassination of Al-Hariri's father, former prime minister Rafik Al-Hariri, in February 2005. But the international gaze has shifted away from Lebanon since the Doha agreement brought the May crisis to an end last year and brought Suleiman to Baabda Palace with a somewhat toothless role as consensus president. The big question in the coming weeks will be whether Al-Hariri decides to resign with the hope of being re-nominated and starting cabinet consultations again with an invigorated mandate. He has little political experience and has been accused, including privately by members of his own alliance, of being incapable of bringing pressure to bear during talks with Lebanon's wily politicians, many of whom have been around for decades. The latest turn of events casts further doubt on the success of a dialogue between Syria and Saudi Arabia, former Arab political foes and rivals for regional influence. Over the past few months they have been engaged in dialogue and the warming ties were seen as one reason that Lebanon's election passed calmly and that the political wrangling has so far stayed off the streets. "This doesn't bode well, it signifies a total breakdown regionally and domestically," Makdisi said. "Everyone's now in a holding pattern." With an expected push by US President Barack Obama in the next few months for renewed peace negotiations in Israel-Palestine and increased pressure on Iran, Makdisi saw the potential for renewed regional tension that could play out in Lebanon once again. Salem, however, said Al-Hariri's push might boost government consultations. "There are no major issues on the table, this is a simple tussle for power," he said.
