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Ghosts of the past
Published in Al-Ahram Weekly on 01 - 02 - 2007

The words "civil war" are on everyone's lips in Lebanon after the worst clashes the country has seen since its darkest days. Lucy Fielder reports from Beirut
A fight in a university cafeteria was the spark that ignited Beirut's streets for the second day last week.
According to security sources, supporters of Sunni leader Saad Al-Hariri's Future Movement surrounded the Beirut Arab University after the fight turned into a brawl, refusing to allow Shia opposition supporters to leave. As the army tried to negotiate a lift of the blockade -- the university is in the Sunni area and Future Movement stronghold of Tarik Al-Jadida -- vanloads of Shia Amal supporters arrived.
Pitched street battles ensued between scores of rock and bottle-hurling youths. In the most worrying echo of the civil war, snipers appeared on roofs and picked off several opposition figures in the melee below.
Two days earlier, a crippling general strike called by the opposition descended into violence. Resulting in seven deaths, last week's clashes were the worst since the 15-year civil war that ended in 1990.
The opposition led by Shia group Hizbullah and popular Christian leader Michel Aoun says the Lebanese government must give it a veto-wielding share of power or go. It began as a campaign of protests in downtown Beirut 1 December, when its supporters set up camp outside the Grand Serail government building.
The US-backed government of Prime Minister Fouad Al-Siniora has refused opposition demands and branded the campaign a coup attempt. Last week's violence overshadowed international donor pledges of $7.6 billion at a Paris aid conference hailed as a success for Siniora.
Mixed Sunni-Shia areas again flared up Thursday. Burning tires blocked roads in Mazraa and Mar Elias. In Basta, youths with wooden coshes and scarves covering their mouths turned rubbish bins in our path, forcing us to turn away after beating the bus in front with sticks. After the news coursed around the capital its streets filled with nervous workers heading home early and lines of people waiting on corners for suddenly scarce service taxis.
As night fell, the army imposed Beirut's first curfew since 1984 at the height of the civil war. The capital, more tense than it has been in years, was silent but for the occasional warning volley of gunshots from the army.
Armoured personnel carriers now stand on every major street corner in the capital. Lebanon's 40,000-strong army is stretched to the limit after its deployment of 15,000 troops to the far south under UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which ended the war between Israel and Hizbullah last year.
Army Commander General Michel Suleiman called for reason to return to Lebanese politics in an interview with the left-wing As- Safir newspaper. "The army has been bearing above its load for months and is ready to bear more on condition that officials and civilians also bear their responsibilities in preventing security disturbances," he said.
The army is formed from a cross-section of Lebanese communities, though Christians are represented more heavily among officers. It was widely praised last week for its neutrality and non-violent efforts to stop the clashes, though soldiers were shot at and had stones hurled at them.
The words "civil war" were on everyone's lips. An editorial in the Daily Star English- language newspaper echoed widespread fears that Lebanon was "too brittle" to survive another day of street battles. "Party leaders from across the board have dismissed these fears, vowing that they will never allow the country to be plunged, yet again, into internal strife. But as tensions soar -- largely as a result of their ongoing war of accusations -- their ability to rein in angry mobs diminishes."
Hizbullah's charismatic leader Sayed Hassan Nasrallah has appeared keenly aware of that risk over the past week. He has repeatedly forbidden his supporters from taking up arms against their Lebanese brethren regardless of any insult, injury or death dealt to them. But it is anybody's guess how long the angry, hooded, stick-wielding mobs that emerged on both sides of the political divide last week will be in the mood to listen to reason.
Like Hariri and Siniora, Nasrallah took to the airwaves to call his supporters off the streets on Thursday, issuing a rare fatwa edict. He has addressed crowds frequently during the 10 days of the Shia mourning ritual of Ashura, which commemorates the death in battle of Imam Hussein, Prophet Mohamed's grandson. On Tuesday, he delivered a speech that was at once fiery towards Israel and the US and calming on domestic matters.
"The most important message is this: that the resistance in Lebanon, through you, announces its resolve and desire for patience, for avoiding being dragged into internal fighting or civil strife," Nasrallah told vast crowds in Beirut's mainly-Shia southern suburbs.
"I say to all our people in Lebanon, in all Lebanon's regions, in Beirut and all its areas: no one is scaring you, no one is terrorising you, no one is using you. The resistance is your resistance, you are its people, and its arms are to defend you and your honour in the face of Lebanon's enemies."
Paul Salem, director of the Carnegie Endowment's Middle East Centre in Beirut, said the "14 March" ruling coalition knew Hizbullah did not want a civil war, which most analysts say would destroy the group's Lebanese and regional support. "So one of the responses that we saw last week was that there was some dynamic of pushing it in that direction in order to stop the opposition, because they don't want a civil war so once it begins to look a bit like that they pull back."
He cautioned against seeing the clash as purely sectarian, though in Lebanon's confessional political system there is always an overlap.
"It's essentially a political conflict involving issues such as foreign policy, security policy, the tribunal [to try suspects in Rafik Al-Hariri's assassination], [UN Resolution] 1701, power and government, power-sharing, all the complex issues that are really on the table. But once things get politically out of hand and things begin to spill over into the street, it turns into something else," he said.
"Obviously, that's the case because the government has a major Sunni party and the opposition has a major Shia party."
The acrid cloud that hung over the capital last week may yet have a silver lining. Leaders on all sides appear spooked and diplomatic efforts have intensified. Arab League Secretary-General Amr Moussa was expected to return to Beirut later this week to try to bring leaders back to the dialogue table. Iran and Saudi Arabia are trying to work out a solution behind the scenes. But efforts have so far borne little fruit.
Lebanon's leaders, too, have made a flurry of contacts. Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea said his group, part of the 14 March coalition, was getting in touch with Aoun to try to put a long-running feud that flared up during the strike last week behind them.


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