An uneasy calm reigned in Lebanon this week as both sides of the political divide appeared keen to give diplomacy a chance, Lucy Fielder reports from Beirut Saudi-Iranian efforts for a solution to Lebanon's political crisis continued behind the scenes this week, but media reports stated they had so far borne few results. Hopes for the moment are pinned on Arab League Secretary- General Amr Moussa, who is expected to visit later in the week. Moussa's last attempt to bridge Lebanon's divide in December ended in failure. A standoff between the 14 March government of Prime Minister Fouad Al-Siniora and the opposition led by Hizbullah and Christian leader Michel Aoun descended into violence 23-25 January. An opposition general strike paralysed the country and clashes were sparked when government supporters tried to clear the main roads of barricades of burning tyres. Sunni-Shia fighting engulfed central Beirut areas divided between the two sects, and pro- and anti-government Christians also clashed. Two days later, a fight in a university cafeteria escalated into a sectarian battle. At least seven were left dead and hundreds injured, leading the army to impose on Beirut the first citywide curfew since 1984, at the height of the civil war. Security sources charged four people in connection with the Beirut Arab University riot. As fears of a return to civil war spread and the two-year commemoration of former Prime Minister Rafik Al-Hariri's assassination looms, neither side looks willing to give an inch. The opposition wants the government cede a veto-wielding third of the cabinet seats or resign. The government refuses the demand and accuses Hizbullah, an ally of Damascus, of acting to block an international tribunal into Hariri's killing, which many Lebanese blame on Syria. Syria denies any involvement and a UN investigation into the death is expected to run at least until next June, if not beyond. Opposition protesters remain camped out near the Grand Serail government building, where Siniora and his ministers are holed up behind barricades bristling with barbed wire and the guns of the army and security forces. The opposition encampment spreads into the area above Martyrs Square, which hosted the anti-Syrian demonstration from which 14 March took its name and is Hariri's resting place. A barricade separates the two areas, but there are widespread fears that any massive pro-government demonstration just metres from the camp on the 14 February anniversary could hold a match to the tinder. Students returned to universities Monday, which had been closed for more than a week after the clashes occurred. Security was heavy on campuses and at main gates and students were checked for weapons. Soldiers remain on the capital's street corners. Hisham Youssef, an aide to Moussa, visited Beirut this week to pave the way for Moussa's arrival, meeting Siniora and opposition MP Ali Hassan Khalil among others. Lebanese newspapers have reported that there is little progress on the Saudi- Iranian track, with both sides entrenched in their positions. All are grateful for the respite in tensions on the street, however. Sami Baroudi, professor of political science at the Lebanese American University, said although the Arab League initiative was high profile, the Saudi-Iranian talks constituted a complementary "back channel" that was perhaps more significant because Iran is not represented in the Arab League. Analysts and much of the Lebanese media say the international tribunal on Hariri is a stumbling block of negotiations, with Syria refusing to give in on the issue. Baroudi said all sides had approved the court in principle and it was mainly a question of procedure, particularly whether the court should be set up prior to the conclusion of the UN investigation led by Belgian prosecutor Serge Brammertz, or whether the UN should make its conclusions first. Other technical issues concerning the court's jurisdiction are under discussion, he said, such as whether the court's purview included the period before Hariri's assassination and whether the court would be established under Chapter VII of the UN Charter. A public spat on this issue flared up between Siniora and Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri this week after the former wrote to the UN requesting that the tribunal be established under Chapter VII because Berri had not called an emergency parliamentary session to discuss it. That means that because the UN classified the assassination an act of terrorism, the world body can legally bypass Lebanon's parliament to establish the court without ratification. That option has widely been considered a last resort because of the potential harm to the country's ever-fragile consensus. Pro-Syrian President Emile Lahoud has refused to approve the court. "All these issues really have to do with the role of the international community in the court and whether this will really be an international trial of the Syrian regime and its local allies and I think this is what the opposition doesn't want," Baroudi said. Whether Hizbullah and its allies should have the power of veto over government decisions is another central bone of contention. It is particularly significant because of Hizbullah's arms, which the Shia resistance group retained after the civil war to fight Israel. Since Israel's aggressive war against Lebanon last summer, Hizbullah has been determined to have a decisive say in Lebanon's defence and the power to block any attempts to disarm Hizbullah under international, and especially US, pressure. Hizbullah's critics are alarmed by the possession of heavy weaponry by one sect in Lebanon's fragile make-up and accuse the group of running a "state within a state". Rising fury on the streets has pushed the stakes higher. "The personal element has also become significant and I think there are many people on both the opposition and government sides who don't want to look at all like they are backing down," Baroudi said. A by-product of these political battles has been a newly exaggerated Sunni-Shia rift, because the former dominates the government, the latter the opposition. "I don't think anybody wants to add one more rift to the internal divisions in Lebanon, but at the same time those politicians represent sects and I don't think anyone wants to look as though they're backing down on essential demands of their group," Baroudi added. Leftist newspaper Al-Akhbar reported that a 14 March committee was considering different scenarios to commemorate Hariri's killing, which plunged the country into a political crisis that worsened with last summer's war. One idea on the table, the paper reported, is a day of "more work than usual", to contrast with the opposition's general strike and downtown protests. The government portrays the opposition as a backward force that has invaded downtown Beirut and seeks to hold back economic development. In the latest episode of Lebanon's battle of the billboards this week, new 14 March posters sprang up displaying simply the slogans "I'm going out" or "I'm going to work". The message was simple -- those who want to get on with life support the government. A second idea is a vast demonstration along the lines of previous protests, Al-Akhbar reported. Alternatively, selected leaders would walk silently from the seafront bombsite where Hariri was killed to his graveside, where the Fatiha Quranic verse would be read in memorial.
