Last week's Arab summit yielded little but disappointment as far as most Lebanese were concerned, as the country drifted back into its now habitual state of waiting. Lucy Fielder reports from Beirut For the second year running, two Lebanese leaders headed to the Arab summit, representing the sharp split down the middle of the country. Pro- Syrian President Emile Lahoud -- who has lately intimated that he may stay on even beyond the end of his term in September if there is no "legitimate" government -- was the official representative in Riyadh. But close Saudi ally Prime Minister Fouad Al-Seniora headed a rival delegation because he and the "14th March" anti- Syrian movement view Lahoud as illegitimate since his term was extended, after a constitutional amendment, under pressure from Damascus in 2004. Neither delegation brought back the only thing the long-suffering Lebanese are waiting for either -- a solution to the paralysis that has gripped the country since last summer's Israeli war on Lebanon. Lahoud had objected to a reference to the Lebanese government, rather than state, in the summit's final statement. He said the government was "unconstitutional and absent". Many Lebanese had eagerly awaited the summit, with analysts and politicians predicting it would yield a breakthrough. But such hopes proved to be mere clutching at straws. Arab leaders had no magic formula to resolve the two main issues dividing the government and opposition. Opposition demands for a national unity government with a "blocking third" veto over decisions, which the government rejects, and the establishment of an international court to try suspects in the killing of former Prime Minister Rafik Al-Hariri. The most significant event of the summit as far as Lebanon was concerned was the meeting between Saudi King Abdullah and Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad. That appeared to represent a thaw in relations that have been frosty since the killing of Hariri, who had close ties to the kingdom and whose death the "14th March" movement blames on Syria. Relations reached their nadir last summer after Israel's war on Lebanon, when Assad denounced as "half-men" those Arab leaders who had failed to back the Shia Hizbullah guerrillas in their fight against Israel. However, in his public address to the summit, Abdullah appeared to give support to Seniora when he said, "We reject the turning of common streets into hotels", a criticism of the opposition protest encampment that has sprawled across two central Beirut squares since December. Paul Salem, head of the Carnegie Endowment's Middle East Centre in Beirut, said the only important outcome of the summit would be if Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert agreed to the Saudi peace initiative. As well as bringing Israelis and Palestinians back to the table, that could have a calming effect in Lebanon, particularly if pressure were placed upon Israel to withdraw from the Syrian Golan Heights. "The Saudis did everything they could, and now there's a sense of drift in Lebanon," Salem said. "The general sense is that people are waiting to see if there's going to be a big change between the US and Iran in April, because there could be two major wars in the offing, between the US and Iran and Israel and Hizbullah." He described such wars as a "serious possibility but not a likelihood". Talk of a war between the US and Iran, which backs Hizbullah, preoccupied many Lebanese this week and fears that this summer will yield more bloodshed in the troubled country are rampant on both sides of the divide. Hizbullah Deputy Secretary-General Naim Qassem told a gathering in the southern suburbs of Beirut on Tuesday night that the US administration had told members of the pro-US "14th March" forces, "that a war is coming in the region through a strike on Iran, and it asked those forces to wait until two months from now, because Iran will weaken, and with it, regional states and the opposition and Hizbullah; then you'll get what you want." Lebanon also witnessed a flurry of diplomacy this week, but with no concrete results. The most high-profile visitor was UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon, who met leaders from both sides and called for dialogue. Ki-Moon said he had received intelligence reports that weapons are being smuggled across the border from Syria to arm Hizbullah. "There are intelligence reports that arms are being smuggled. I am concerned by that kind of arms smuggling, which will destabilise the situation in Lebanon," he told reporters at the headquarters of the UN peacekeeping force in southern Lebanon. Lebanese leaders and army chiefs denied the claim. Ki-Moon also urged progress in the establishment of the international tribunal into Hariri's killing, as did German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who also flew in. Merkel said Syria should contribute to supporting Lebanese democracy so that Lebanon develops as an independent state and that it recognises Lebanon diplomatically. But there was more good news for Syria this week when US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, a Democrat, visited Damascus after dropping in on Beirut. Pelosi met Assad, provoking the indignation of the White House for going against official policy of isolating the Syrian leadership and becoming the first high-ranking US official to meet the president since former President Bill Clinton met his father Hafez Al-Assad in 1994. Berri and parliamentary majority leader Saad Hariri are expected to recommence in the next few days a series of meetings they have held to try to break the domestic deadlock. Lebanon has been split since Hariri's assassination, but last summer's war plunged it into a political crisis that became an outright standoff with the resignation of six ministers last November. But with the failure of the summit, and apparent dead-end that Saudi efforts have run into, it is not clear that either has anything new to bring to the table. Once again, all eyes are on outside developments, particularly between the US and Iran, to determine the fate of tiny, divided Lebanon. Opposition media said that the "14th March" ruling parliamentary majority had jeopardised the dialogue on Tuesday when it handed a petition to the United Nations, calling upon it to do whatever it deemed fit to establish a tribunal, which was demanded by UN Resolution 1595. That step was widely seen as potentially paving the way for the imposition of the court using Chapter 7 of the UN Charter, by which the UN could impose the tribunal without Lebanon's official consent because Hariri's killing was deemed an act of "international terrorism". Justice Minister Charles Rizq told reporters that while resort to Chapter 7 was legally possible, it was the "least desirable course". Use of Chapter 7 would be likely to antagonise the opposition, led by Syrian-backed Hizbullah, and at the very least exacerbate the split down the middle of Lebanese society. Qassem said that establishing the court under Chapter 7 would constitute "an attack on Lebanon". Salem said a breakthrough with Syria over the court, perhaps through a back-room deal, would be the only route out of the current crisis. "The Syrians must be realising they have to come up with a formula to deal with the court issue. Chapter 7 is a real possibility to my mind," he said. Ruling majority MPs gathered for the third week in a row on Tuesday outside parliament to pressure Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri to convene the legislature for its spring session. He has refused to call the session, despite opposition accusations that his actions are unconstitutional, saying that Lebanon's dangerous divide would only spread to the legislature and dialogue should resolve key issues first. "14th March" has the parliamentary majority and accuses the opposition of attempting at Syria's behest to stall ratification of the draft law to establish the international tribunal.
