Lebanon's deadlock drags on while hopes of a breakthrough before the Arab summit are dwindling, writes Lucy Fielder in Beirut Lebanese hopes to end months of political crisis have been raised in the past couple of weeks by a series of meetings between Saad Al-Hariri -- head of the "14 March" parliamentary majority -- and opposition leader and parliament speaker Nabih Berri. But, as usual in Lebanon, talks have dragged on without resolution. A new controversy then reared its head Tuesday as Berri refused to convene parliament on the date it was supposed to begin its spring session and MPs gathered outside the legislature in central Beirut in symbolic protest. Berri says the talks should be allowed to yield results first; that parliament should not convene in the current climate and risk spreading the conflict between the government and its opponents into the legislature. Along with the rest of the Hizbullah-led opposition, Berri believes the government to be illegitimate after the Shia political and resistance group and its allies withdrew six ministers from the cabinet in November. "Here in Lebanon we're always confusing the political and the legal," said legal expert Shafik Masri. The opposition points to Lebanon's consensual political system as reason for why the government cannot be legal without Shia representation. But the government led by Prime Minister Fouad Al-Siniora rejected the November resignations and says it cannot be considered illegal because of the decisions of certain ministers over which it has no control. Druze leader Walid Jumblatt, lately a close ally of Washington, said the refusal to call the spring session shows that the opposition wants to block the planned international tribunal to try suspects in Rafik Al-Hariri's killing in February 2005. The opposition points out that it has always stated its support in principle for the international court but seeks modifications to tabled proposals. "Of course, all these controversies are taking place at the expense of the normal citizen," said Masri, a professor of international law at both the American University in Beirut and the Lebanese American University. "We are always waiting, this time for the outcome of talks between Berri and Hariri and for the Arab summit. That is our destiny." Osama Safa, head of the Lebanese Centre for Policy Studies, said Berri wanted the talks to achieve progress first on the two main issues: how much the opposition should be represented in the national unity government it demands and the formation of the tribunal. The 14 March bloc has demanded parliament convene for months. "Convening parliament might be seen as a victory for the [parliamentary] majority and that's not in the opposition's interest," Safa said. "Berri is not going to give a freebee to the majority until he's sure of tangible progress." In Safa's view, the pro-government MPs' protest was safe symbolism that might risk reigniting a latent media war but was unlikely to lead to major confrontation. Mainstream leaders on both sides have seemed afraid to overstep the mark since two days of sectarian bloodshed in January deepened fears of a civil war. On the two main issues at hand, however, progress seems elusive as ever. The government refuses to allow the opposition a "blocking third" of the cabinet and accuses the opposition of wanting to obstruct the tribunal at Syria's bidding. Hizbullah and Amal are supported by Damascus, though their Christian ally Michel Aoun was one of the most vocal critics of decades of Syrian domination over its smaller neighbour. For its part, the opposition has continued to object to any other formula, such as one independent minister that would leave the opposition one member below the required third. Safa described opposition calls for modifying the tribunal draft plan as a "smokescreen". "However you do it, any court would be a huge embarrassment for Syria," he said. Berri and Hariri's talks were symbolic and useful for keeping a lid on simmering Sunni-Shia tensions, which have come to the fore because Sunnis dominate the government and the Shia, the opposition. "But I don't think there'll be progress soon -- this will probably go on for months," Safa said. Because of the many international players with a stake in Lebanon, regional developments such as the Arab summit, UN Security Council deliberations on Iran's nuclear programme and European Union diplomacy are more significant than what happens within Lebanon, Safa said. Many see Lebanon's woes as reflecting a battle between a Saudi-US axis behind the government, and Iran and Syria, which back the opposition. All eyes are on the Arab summit in Riyadh late next week, since it looks increasingly unlikely there will be a breakthrough before then. Arab summits, however, are not known for achieving radical results. According to Safa, talks on the sidelines are the best hope. "The summit itself has no value, it's the fact that [Syrian President Bashar] Al-Assad and [Saudi King] Abdullah might get together behind closed doors," he said. Meanwhile, in northern Lebanon, a gunfight broke out between rival Palestinian factions in the refugee camp of Nahr Al-Barid near the city of Tripoli Monday night, injuring at least two fighters. Tensions have soared in the camp since Interior Minister Hassan Al-Sabaa announced last week that four detained Syrians had confessed to belonging to the hardline Fatah Al-Islam movement and carrying out the February twin bus bombings in a Christian area north of Beirut that killed three people. He linked the group, which denies involvement in the bombings, to Syrian intelligence. Syria denied any links to the group, which it said had Al-Qaeda connections. Palestinians in the camp have held demonstrations calling for the group to be expelled, and the army has beefed up its presence around the camp.
