An Arab proposal to break Lebanon's presidential deadlock seems doomed unless someone pulls a rabbit from his hat, Lucy Fielder reports from Beirut Arab League Secretary-General Amr Moussa was expected in Beirut this week armed with a proposal to break Lebanon's presidential stalemate. Hopes were initially high that, having secured tepid Syrian backing for the initiative agreed by Arab foreign ministers in Cairo on 6 January, he would succeed where earlier missions failed. But Lebanese media coverage was rapidly infused with pessimism born of a year of political paralysis and longer polarisation between the US-backed anti- Syrians and their opponents. Lebanon has been without a president since Emile Lahoud stepped down on 23 November with no chosen successor. The Arab plan focuses on the immediate election of army Commander Michel Suleiman, whom both sides approved late last year. More controversial to the opposition led by Hizbullah, an ally of Damascus and Iran, is the composition of the government to be appointed after the president is sworn in. Hizbullah and popular Christian ally Michel Aoun have campaigned for the past year for a unity government that awards them a veto-wielding third of cabinet seats with the aim of securing more representation for Aoun and blocking any attempt to disarm the Shia guerrillas. But the draft proposal states that a government should be formed "such that the composition does not allow any decision to be imposed or blocked by any one party." In an unprecedented step, the plan gives Suleiman the swing vote, in the form of a number of cabinet seats. "This is going to put the opposition in a corner," said Amal Saad-Ghorayeb of the Carnegie Endowment's Middle East Centre in Beirut. "It's clearly an initiative that favours 14 March [the US-backed governing bloc] rather than the opposition." In an interview last week, Hizbullah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah threatened escalation, probably civil disobedience and blocking the airport and ports, if the deadlock persists. Hizbullah's obvious discomfort at obstructing the Arab plan is likely to delay such action, but it is unclear for how long. Street fights last week between supporters of Saad Al-Hariri's Sunni Future Movement and Nabih Berri's Shia Amal around the mixed, tense Beirut district of Basta showed that sectarian clashes like those Lebanon witnessed last January are an ever-present risk. A parliamentary vote for a president expected on 12 January is likely to be delayed for the 12th time unless Moussa arrives in Beirut with a surprise up his sleeve. "The same old unresolved issues are waiting for Moussa," said Sami Baroudi, a professor at the Lebanese American University. "The opposition are going to raise the same obstacles and neither side has given up on major issues. How much of the rhetoric is upping the ante before Moussa arrives and the real negotiations start, we don't know." Many analysts now say resolution will wait until the March Arab summit. Others say it could drag on until parliamentary elections in 2009, with Lebanon's state and economy becoming paralysed. Paving the way for the March summit, which is to be held in Damascus, appears to be behind Syria's approval of the plan. Saudi Arabia and Egypt reportedly intimated they would not attend, at least at a high level, if Syria declined to cooperate. Saad-Ghorayeb said Syria had signalled through the media that despite its acceptance, it was unwilling to impose the plan on its allies. Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Al-Mouallem told reporters in Cairo: "I hope that our Lebanese brothers will think hard before reacting while they wait for the secretary-general of the Arab League to arrive to hear the Arab point of view." Syria's attendance of the November Annapolis conference on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict appeared to have led to a thaw in its relations with Washington. But the moment was short-lived; Bush has stepped up accusations of Syrian meddling, and after a flurry of French- Syrian diplomacy late last year, French President Nicolas Sarkozy announced on 30 December that diplomatic contacts would be severed until Damascus "facilitates" Lebanon's election. Nasrallah said government and opposition had come within a hair's breadth of a deal at the close of 2007 and blamed renewed US interference. "When we were about to reach a settlement and after we agreed over the national unity government and the electoral law, we were surprised that everything returned to the starting point due to the American intervention," he told the opposition NBN TV station in an interview. He said attitudes changed with the return of US Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs David Welch in December. After several months of comparative US disengagement from the Lebanese crisis, US President George W Bush urged his allies in Lebanon to choose a president by simple majority in December. That option was threatened by 14 March hardliners early in the presidential negotiations, but most appear to have been persuaded that the "50 plus one" vote would breach the constitution, which stipulates a two-thirds quorum in the first vote. The expression "the devil is in the detail" was on every analyst's lips this week. Hizbullah's reaction to the Arab plan has been cautious, welcoming the initiative but saying it required study. "We don't want to be pessimistic or block the route to any productive decision, especially in a complicated matter like the Lebanese issue," said Mohamed Raad, head of Hizbullah's parliamentary bloc. But Prime Minister Fouad Al-Siniora suggested a similar plan last year, Saad-Ghorayeb pointed out, to appoint a "kingmaker" neutral minister rather than giving opponents a full veto. The opposition rejected it. "Giving Suleiman the swing vote is very far-fetched, it's a step further than Al-Siniora's neutral minister," she said. The fact that two ministers loyal to pro-Syrian Lahoud -- Charles Rizq and Elias Al-Murr -- defected to 14 March, is likely to increase Hizbullah's qualms about the arrangement. Saad-Ghorayeb said the plan and the 14 March backing of Suleiman's candidacy, despite earlier criticisms that the army chief was pro-Syrian, were aimed at weakening and dividing the opposition. By rejecting Suleiman's proposed swing vote, Hizbullah, Aoun et al will appear not to trust a candidate widely seen as amicable to their interests and whom they once backed. It is also unclear how Suleiman -- a Maronite Christian, as Lebanese presidents must be -- would choose his ministers, given that his career has been military, not political. "Suleiman's ministers would have no popular constituency, meaning the Christians would not be represented properly," Saad-Ghorayeb said. Aoun's popularity rests partly on his appeal to Christian fears of waning clout and poor representation. An Iraqi man sews colourful banners in anticipation of the Festival of Muharram commemorating the death of Imam Hussein in the Shia holy city of Karbala (photo: AP)
