For decades, Russia has maintained a delicate balance in the Middle East, managing its relationship with Israel while forging close economic and military ties with Iran. Recent regional developments, however, have placed Moscow in a challenging position requiring diplomatic skill to preserve its connections with both sides. Amid this new situation, Russia may find a rare opportunity to become an influential mediator to help resolve the conflict, according to The Associated Press. Some observers in Moscow also believe that a focus on the Israel-Iran confrontation could divert global attention from the war in Ukraine, which would benefit Russia by potentially weakening Western support for Kyiv. Russian President Vladimir Putin has spoken to both Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, offering to help de-escalate the conflict. In his call with Pezeshkian, Putin condemned the Israeli strikes and offered his condolences. He noted that Russia had put forward specific initiatives aimed at resolving the situation surrounding Iran's nuclear programme. Russia's foreign ministry issued a strongly-worded statement condemning the Israeli strikes as "unacceptable" and warning that "all consequences of this provocation will fall on the Israeli leadership." It urged both sides to "show restraint to prevent further escalation of tensions and prevent the region from sliding into an all-out war." Despite the strong condemnation of Israel's actions, Moscow has given no indication it would offer anything beyond political support for Tehran, despite a partnership treaty between the two countries. In his call with Netanyahu, Putin stressed "the importance of returning to the negotiating process and resolving all issues related to the Iranian nuclear programme exclusively by political and diplomatic means," offering his mediation "to prevent further escalation of tensions," according to a Kremlin statement. "It was agreed that the Russian side will continue its close contacts with the leadership of both Iran and Israel, with the aim of resolving the current situation, which has grave consequences for the entire region," the statement added. Putin and U.S. President Donald Trump also discussed the Middle East situation by phone on Saturday. Yuri Ushakov, Putin's foreign policy adviser, stated that the Kremlin leader affirmed his country's readiness to undertake mediation efforts. He noted that Russia had proposed steps "aimed at finding mutually acceptable agreements" during U.S.-Iran negotiations on the nuclear programme. From tension to strategic partnership During the Cold War, relations between Moscow and Tehran were often tense, with Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi being a U.S. ally. After the 1979 Iranian Revolution, Iran's then-Supreme Leader Ruhollah Khomeini described the U.S. as the "Great Satan" but also attacked the Soviet Union as the "Lesser Satan." Russo-Iranian relations strengthened rapidly after the 1991 collapse of the Soviet Union, with Moscow becoming a key trade partner and a major supplier of arms and technology to Iran amid international sanctions. Russia built Iran's first nuclear power plant at the port of Bushehr, which began operating in 2013. Russia was part of the 2015 nuclear deal between Iran and six world powers, which offered Tehran sanctions relief in exchange for curbs on its nuclear programme. Moscow provided political support to Tehran when the U.S. unilaterally withdrew from the deal during Trump's first term. Following the outbreak of the Syrian civil war in 2011, Russia and Iran joined forces to support the government of Bashar al-Assad, helping him regain control over most of the country before his government's rapid collapse in December 2024. When Moscow launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the West alleged that Tehran had signed a deal to supply Shahed drones to the Kremlin and later to launch their production in Russia. In January, Putin and Pezeshkian signed a "Comprehensive Strategic Partnership" treaty providing for close political, economic and military ties. Strong ties with Israel despite tensions During the Cold War, Moscow armed and trained Arab nations in their confrontation with Israel, leading to a break in diplomatic ties in 1967, which were restored in 1991. Russo-Israeli relations improved quickly after the Soviet collapse and have remained strong. Despite Moscow's close ties with Tehran, Putin has repeatedly shown a willingness to consider Israeli interests, maintaining a close personal relationship with Netanyahu, who visited Russia frequently before the war in Ukraine. Russia and Israel built a close political, economic and cultural relationship that has helped them navigate sensitive issues, including developments in Syria. While Russia has supplied Iran with advanced S-300 air defence missile systems, which Israel claimed were destroyed during its raids on Iran last year, Moscow has been slow to deliver other weapons in an apparent nod to Israeli concerns. Notably, Russia has delayed the delivery of advanced Su-35 fighter jets that Iran seeks to modernise its ageing air force. In turn, Israel has appeared to consider Moscow's interests, showing little enthusiasm for supplying Ukraine with weapons in the three-year-long war. The Kremlin's friendly relations with Israel have reportedly caused discontent in Tehran, where some members of the political and military leadership were said to be sceptical of Moscow's intentions. Potential Russian gains Maintaining good relations with both Israel and Iran could now pay dividends, positioning Moscow as a strong mediator trusted by both sides and a potential partner in any future agreement on Tehran's nuclear programme. Long before Friday's attacks, Putin had discussed rising Mideast tensions in his calls with Trump, talks that offered the Russian leader a chance to shift focus from the Ukraine war and engage more broadly with Washington on global issues. Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov hinted in recent days that Russia could take highly enriched uranium from Iran and convert it into fuel for civilian nuclear reactors as part of a potential U.S.-Iran deal. Prospects for such a deal seem slim after the Israeli attacks, but if talks were to resume, Russia's offer could emerge as a key component. Alongside this, many observers believe the Israeli attacks will likely drive up global oil prices, enriching Moscow at a time when its economy is under strain. "The hopes of Ukraine and its allies in Western Europe for a drop in Russian oil revenues, which are essential to cover military budget expenditures, will be dashed," wrote Moscow-based military analyst Ruslan Pukhov in a commentary. Some commentators in Moscow also argue that a Mideast confrontation will likely divert Western attention and resources from the war in Ukraine, making it easier for Russia to achieve its objectives on the ground. "The world's interest in Ukraine will weaken," said pro-Kremlin analyst Sergei Markov, as quoted by the AP. "The war between Israel and Iran will contribute to the success of the Russian army in Ukraine."
