In Beirut, Lucy Fielder looks into prospects for future Lebanese-Syrian relations Speedy progress made in the early days of Lebanon's National Dialogue already seems a distant memory. Much was rightly made of the fact that 14 leaders from Lebanon's divided and sectarian political scene had gathered around the table together for the first time since the 1975-1990 civil war to discuss issues that have deepened rifts between the Lebanese over the past year since former prime minister Rafik Al-Hariri's assassination. An agreement at the outset on working towards normal diplomatic relations with Syria was widely expected. But this week it became clear how challenging even that task is likely to be. A visit to Damascus by Prime Minister Fouad Al-Siniora has been on the cards since he shook hands with Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad on the sidelines of the March Arab summit in Khartoum. But Syria has made clear it is in no hurry to receive him, though it says the "doors of Damascus are open to anyone representing the Lebanese." Although Al-Siniora told pan-Arab satellite channel Al-Jazeera at the weekend that he would visit Damascus "if not tomorrow then the day after" figuratively speaking -- Syria says it is still "studying" Lebanon's proposed agenda and no date has been set. Among issues up for discussion are establishing embassies -- Damascus has long said the two countries are too close to need them -- revising bilateral agreements, missing persons on each others" territories and, most controversially, redrawing the mutual borders, including in the disputed Shebaa Farms area. Al-Siniora's links with Syria have long been uneasy because of his close connection with the Al-Hariri family and his ties with Western capitals. He last visited Damascus in July, immediately after Lebanon had sworn in its first government in decades that was critical of Syria. Despite joint pledges of "brotherly relations", ties soon soured and in November Al-Assad called Al-Siniora "a slave following the orders of another slave." And according to Lebanese daily As- Safir on Monday, Syria wants tiny, sectarian Lebanon -- never free of foreign machinations of one sort or another -- to make up its mind whether it intends to steer a path guided by US (and Israeli) interests or take a more Arab world-oriented stance. Syria is downplaying the visit to send the Lebanese a message "you need us, we don't need you", says Lebanese American University Professor Sami Baroudi. "It's trying to show we're not just going to play the game the way you want to play it, if you want results you have to work with our allies in Lebanon." And the spotlight will be trained on these allies in what is meant to be the final round of talks on 28 April. President Emile Lahoud, seen as a last vestige of Syrian influence in Lebanon and under strong pressure to resign, looks increasingly secure in his presidential palace. The 14 March forces of Saad Al-Hariri, Walid Jumblatt, Al-Siniora and others may detest Lahoud, and have perhaps unwisely hinged their political programme on removing him, but they have been unable to agree on an alternative for the traditionally Maronite Christian post. Observers wryly point out that the anti-Syrians would rather keep Lahoud than replace him with Lebanon's most popular Christian leader, Michel Aoun, since the latter threw in his lot with Hizbullah. Amal leader and Parliamentary Speaker Nabih Berri, who convened the dialogue, has said that if Lahoud's fate is not resolved on 28 April, the file will be closed. Most Lebanese now believe Lahoud will likely serve the remaining year and a half of his term -- the extension of which under Syrian pressure in 2004 is widely seen as the starting point for Lebanon's recent turbulence. Syrian concerns about US-Israeli interests, read "disarming Hizbullah", are likely to be the last issue left on the dialogue table. And few observers or Lebanese expect a radical departure there either. The Shia Muslim guerrilla and political movement receives more practical and ideological support from Iran than Syria, so it is not clear that Damascus could persuade the group to lay down its arms, as demanded by UN Resolution 1559, even if it wanted to. Meetings between parliamentary majority leader Saad Al-Hariri and Hizbullah leader Sayed Hassan Nasrallah are further signs that the guerrilla group's weapons are safe for now. Al-Hariri's conciliatory moves towards the group just a few months after his outspoken ally Jumblatt referred to its "weapons of treachery" reflect increased Arab pressure and fears of Shia-Sunni tensions, observers say. Al-Hariri, like his father, is as much a Saudi animal as a Lebanese one, and both Riyadh and Cairo have stepped up efforts to rehabilitate Syria over the past few months, fearing Iraq-style chaos and perhaps seeing a threat in any pressure on an authoritarian Arab leader. One such attempt was a Saudi initiative to improve Lebanese-Syrian relations in January, which the anti-Syrian bloc shot down for being too soft on Damascus. Al-Hariri described that stance as a "mistake" in an Al-Jazeera interview last week. He also, for the first time, separated the international investigation into his father's death from Lebanon's ties with Syria -- a major concession to Damascus. "We didn't accept separating the international investigation from relations with Syria until international resolutions had been issued concerning the investigation and setting up an international tribunal," Al-Hariri said at his Saturday address at the Qoreitem Palace. With the Syrians in a strong negotiating position, the answer to the deadlock lies, as it always seems to in Lebanon, lies in outside pressure. "There needs to be a strong Arab initiative and Iranian acceptance to improve Syrian- Lebanese ties," says Osama Safa, head of the Lebanese Centre for Policy Studies. But while so many outstanding issues remain, normal diplomatic ties look a long way off, even if Syria removes the barriers from Al-Siniora's road to Damascus.
