As fighting flares up in an eastern Christian town and the presidential election is delayed yet again, Lebanon looks ahead to a stifling summer of stagnation, Lucy Fielder reports from Beirut A press photograph of 14 empty chairs in an upstairs room of the parliament building this week said it all. Despite parliamentary speaker and key opposition figure Nabih Berri's calls for the third "national dialogue" in as many years, no one in Lebanon seems keen to sit around the table, most beyond believing that dialogue could do any good. "People are getting tired of this game but are still loyal to the two groups -- so much so that no one's willing to back down," said Sami Baroudi, a political science professor at the Lebanese American University. "So the politicians are not feeling the pressure to do anything about it." Lebanon has had no president for the nearly five months since Emile Lahoud's term ended, many Lebanese feeling that their country has become inured to paralysis. "I don't think there'll be a round of dialogue, I don't think anybody's interested," said Osama Safa, head of the Lebanese Centre for Policy Studies. "We're waiting for regional changes and it won't happen any time soon." The Western-backed government and the opposition led by Hizbullah -- considered part of the "rejectionist front" with Iran, Syria and Hamas -- have agreed on Lebanese Army Commander Michel Suleiman as a consensus candidate. But they remain locked in a power-struggle over seats in a subsequent cabinet, and in a lesser tussle over Lebanon's controversial electoral law. A parliamentary session for MPs to approve Suleiman was delayed for the 18th time Tuesday, to the surprise of no one. Some observers believe that next year's parliamentary vote is also jeopardised, with no end in sight to the crisis and no agreement on a new election law, as demanded by the opposition and many Christians who feel current electoral boundaries short-change them. Safa said such talk, along with the various initiatives that come and go, was just "to keep people busy". Arab and international leaders were expected to meet Tuesday on the sidelines of a conference on Iraq in Kuwait, but with little expectation of a breakthrough. "None of this is serious talk," said Safa. "It is very clear things are frozen right now. There is no war or peace decision and the status quo is the order of the day." With Iraqi and Palestinian bloodshed growing and little sign of a compromise on Lebanon, all sides await the US election in November for a change in US policy direction on the region. "In the final days of the Bush administration, someone somewhere is upping the ante, and it doesn't seem that there's a thaw in the region," Safa said. Baroudi said the visit of US Assistant Secretary of State for Near East Affairs David Welch to Beirut last week resulted in the same old statements -- that even US allies in Lebanon were losing faith in Washington's ability or will to deliver. "I think the US is losing credibility, even among 14 March [the pro-government movement]," he said. The latest of sporadic clashes that have flared up in the vacuum ignited in Zahle, a mainly Christian town in the eastern Bekaa Valley. Safa said although these were between two rival Christian groups, such tensions existed in every camp. Supporters of local opposition MP Elie Skaff fought a gun-battle with Phalange Party supporters, killing two of the latter. "This is symptomatic of what's happening in all camps and indicative of the charged-up, highly mobilised, highly polarised situation in the country. This could happen at any second, but there seems to be no decision to take it to the next level," Safa said, adding that he doubted the clashes were part of any broader plot to take Lebanon back to the days of civil war. But Al-Akhbar reported the clashes reflected tensions on the Christian street, which many say has the most to lose from the current presidential vacuum because the executive is reserved for a Maronite Christian under Lebanon's sectarian political system. A media war has broken out between the 14 March ruling team, whose Christian component is mainly represented by Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea and the Phalange, and opposition Christian leader Michel Aoun. One of Aoun's erstwhile allies, MP Michel Al-Murr, has moved away from his Free Patriotic Movement's stance, denouncing the delay in electing a president as "unacceptable" and saying other issues could be discussed later. Aoun and the rest of the opposition argue that the balance of power in the cabinet should be agreed before the president can be elected to ensure they have stronger representation. "There seems to be a kind of implicit plan by 14 March to whittle away at Aoun's popularity and exploit the fact that there are some splits within the party ranks," Safa said. Al-Akhbar quoted Aoun's political aide, Jibran Bassil, as saying "consensus can't be imposed through force". "This signal was interpreted by observers as aimed at opening the door for resuming the debate concerning the presidential consensus," Al-Akhbar reported, asking whether Aoun might be on the verge of dropping his support for Suleiman.
