A few days separate Lebanon from a new era, good or bad, Lucy Fielder reports from Beirut Lebanon climbs the final, arduous steps to its long-awaited presidential election this week. Controversial incumbent Emile Lahoud's time is up since 25 September and the thrice-delayed vote is scheduled for Wednesday but generally expected on Friday. Lahoud's extension in 2004, under Syrian pressure, was one of several events that galvanised the anti-Syrian movement and rent Lebanese society in half. Three years later, the US-backed 14 March movement wants a president who will crown their anti-Syrian campaign. Facing them off is an opposition led by Hizbullah, Damascus's ally, which fears the election of a pro-Western leader eager to disarm its resistance. Cautious optimism reigns. Diplomatic efforts have intensified. Most crucially, Lebanon's two polarised political sides have kept talking. Much could go wrong in the next few days, raising the spectre of military government, a political vacuum or rival twin governments. The last of these options is the most feared, recalling as it does the final, dark years of the 1975-1990 Civil War, whose demons in Lebanon are never far from the surface. With days separating Lebanon from a new era of one sort or another, armoured personnel carriers rolled into Beirut. Security has been high since the opposition launched an ongoing protest, aimed at bringing down the government or sharing power, nearly a year ago. An army source said 2,500 extra soldiers were deployed in the capital this week, tasked with patrolling and setting up new checkpoints, in addition to the 3,500 that have become a familiar sight guarding major junctions and public buildings. Eleventh-hour agreements are typical in the history of Lebanese presidential elections. Parliamentarians usually agree on a candidate first -- reflecting the importance of consensus in the country of many sects -- and then enter the chamber to approve the choice by ballot. Saad Al-Hariri, leader of the anti-Syrian majority in parliament, held more talks this week with Speaker Nabih Berri, who represents the Shia- led opposition and his powerful ally, Hizbullah. Analysts and news reports said the talks gave rise to optimism that there would be an agreement. After digging in his heels for several weeks, Maronite Patriarch Nasrallah Boutros Sfeir caved in to French and local demands and handed over a list of candidates for the opposition and loyalists to pore over. Under Lebanon's sectarian political system, the president is traditionally a Maronite. According to news reports, the list was long and contained most of the widely discussed names; it is anybody's guess which, if any, will be chosen. Al-Akhbar quoted a 14 March source this week as saying the movement's Christians had rejected the patriarch's list. Some, the source said, were planning a march to his seat at Bkirki, north of Beirut, at the time of writing. But Paul Salem, head of the Carnegie Endowment's Middle East centre in Beirut, who knows many of the Christians in the movement, said they had approved of at least four names on the list, which were then rejected by the opposition. He said Christian opposition leader Michel Aoun's long-standing candidacy for the presidency appeared to be a barrier to consensus. Although he is the country's most popular Christian leader, he would be rejected by 14 March because of his alliance with Hizbullah. Few leading players stand to gain from chaos, analysts say. Lebanon's two largest communities, the Sunnis and Shia, are widely viewed as more influential than the Christians, even concerning the presidency. Hizbullah is mainly concerned with retaining the "weapons of resistance" with which it won a strategic victory over Israel during last summer's war. Powerful Sunni leader Al-Hariri is likely to see his stature enhanced by a successful, peaceful election, and many predict his elevation to prime minister in any new government formed. "Many of the major players do want to come out of this with an agreement, they do want a president," said Salem. "I'm guardedly optimistic." Diplomatic to-ing and fro-ing has intensified over the past 10 days, but at this last stage before the election action appeared focussed on the Lebanese stage. "The Lebanese players have enough of the cards and know-how and hold enough strings to make a deal," Salem said. French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner touched down for one of a series of whirlwind visits, but it was not clear whether he had anything new to offer, and analysts said his zeal may signify the new French administration's determination to make its mark on the world stage rather than any contribution to healing Lebanon's divisions. Strident remarks on Iran's nuclear programme that Kouchner made in Tel Aviv, his stop before Beirut, may also have thrown a spanner in the works, particularly since he made no mention of Israel's undeclared arsenal. "Syria and Iran probably wouldn't be thrilled to make it appear that France helped win a breakthrough after those comments," Salem said. Kouchner said on the plane to Beirut there was a "new situation", in reference to splits in the Christian ranks, and that he was "less confident" a president would be elected. UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, who visited Beirut last week, said the world body backed a president elected according to the constitution, supported by the widest margin of Lebanese possible and committed to international obligations -- the most controversial of which is Security Council Resolution 1559, calling for Hizbullah's disarmament. "If the responsibilities are not shouldered, there might be a move to the brink of an abyss," Ban said. Arab League Secretary-General Amr Moussa was also expected in Beirut this week, and perhaps also US Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs David Welch. US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice rang Al-Hariri, Berri and Sfeir, and according to pro- opposition Al-Akhbar, quoting informed sources, conveyed that the US would not stand in the way of a consensus candidate, even if not from 14 March. If true, this would enhance chances of reaching an agreement and soften Rice's earlier warnings against compromise with Hizbullah whose arms Israel's ally Washington wants to wrest. However, the gulf between the two sides remains vast, the underlying issues of Hizbullah's arms and the age-old question of Lebanon's orientation and place in the Middle East remain unresolved. Any sudden regional shifts could shock the domestic scene, particularly relating to Washington's standoff with Tehran over its uranium enrichment activities. Two months of talks have yielded no agreement on a president. One possible scenario could be a military state of emergency, whereby the army would seize security control, while the government of Prime Minister Fouad Al-Siniora stays in charge administratively, Salem said. "It all depends on what happens in the next few days." No one is taking bets.
