Lebanon's politicians are keeping the gloves on -- just -- but the issue of the false witnesses is coming to a head, reports Lucy Fielder from Beirut A truce between Lebanon's increasingly divided leaders and their Arab backers held this week, as Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad called Riyadh-backed Prime Minister Saad Al-Hariri the man for the job of heading the government in an interview with pan-Arab newspaper Al-Hayat. And Lebanese ministers readied to defer again the matter of how to investigate the matter of witnesses who gave testimony to the probe into Rafik Al-Hariri's 2005 assassination and later retracted it. But tensions in the run-up to the STL's expected indictment of Hizbullah members surfaced. Assad's assurances came after Prime Minister Naji Al-Otari likened the anti- Syrian 14 March movement to a "house of cards". His comment, in an interview with Kuwait's Al-Rai, prompted a furious reaction from the alliance. Samir Geagea, head of the rightist Christian Lebanese Forces, said that "house of cards" had forced the withdrawal of Syria's troops in 2005, a reference to vast protests that followed Al-Hariri's killing. Lebanon's Al-Akhbar, which supports the parliamentary minority of which Hizbullah is a part, reported this week that The Hague court's indictment would be delayed so it could make further investigations. Citing informed sources, the paper said Saudi Arabia, which backs the court, had informed Damascus the charges would be issued in March at the earliest, rather than late December or earlier January, as has widely been reported. The Hague itself has remained silent on the content and timing of the indictment. But Michel Nawfal, foreign editor of Al-Hariri's Mustaqbal (Future) daily, told Al-Ahram Weekly he believed the indictment to be imminent. Journalists from the paper who were part of a team sent to The Hague several weeks ago had received a firm impression the charges were ready. "I think some of the changes in the Syrians' behaviour lately are because they sense the indictment is prepared and will be soon, and that they will be implicated; it won't only fall on Hizbullah's head," he said. Figures in the former opposition who believed Saudi or Al-Hariri could exert pressure on the court had insufficient grasp of international law, he said. Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah said in July that he expected "rogue elements of his group" to be charged and made clear this would be taken as an accusation against his party as a whole. Analysts say Al-Hariri is under pressure from Syria and its Lebanese allies to withdraw state support for the tribunal, including Lebanon's funding of 49 per cent of its costs. More importantly, he is expected to announce his rejection of any charges implicating Hizbullah. Al-Hariri retracted his long-standing accusation against Syria for his father's killing in an interview with the pan-Arab paper Asharq Al-Awsat recently. But Nawfal said Al-Hariri could not take such a step. "Even supposing he has no brain and wants to sell his own father, he couldn't reject the tribunal, as there are people holding him to account," he said, in reference to both supporters and other members of Al-Hariri's Future Movement, who have long campaigned for establishing the court and the truth. Nor would an official Lebanese rejection of the tribunal be enough to stop the judicial process, he added. Nawfal dismissed the widespread belief in Lebanon that "cancelling the court or civil strife are the only two options facing Lebanon." "It is widely feared that the indictment of the Shia Hizbullah for the Sunni former prime minister's death would stir sectarian clashes. "Civil strife comes from political behaviour in Lebanon; it's possible to control it as much as it is for the leaders to stir it up," he said. "That's why the Syrian-Saudi agreement is so important." Al-Assad met Saudi King Abdullah bin Abdel-Aziz at an unprecedented summit in Beirut this summer to tackle tensions over the expected indictment. At the time the Weekly went to press, the cabinet was due to re-convene on the increasingly explosive issue of the false witnesses, a focus of the March 8 objections to the tribunal. Hizbullah wants the issue dealt with by the Judiciary Council, Lebanon's highest judicial authority, and believes that will expose what it sees as the politicised workings of the investigation and uncover who backed them. 14 March says the witnesses can only be categorically termed "false" after the indictment is issued, if it is clear their testimony was used. Analysts expect ministers to defer voting on the issue, and for President Michel Suleiman to begin consultations and mediation to keep a lid on tensions. It is feared that a vote could force the crisis to a head and prompt the opposition to withdraw its ministers, which would in turn paralyse the government. According to that scenario, a beleaguered Al-Hariri would almost certainly resign. Speculation about replacements has already begun, focused on current economy minister and prominent Tripoli zaim Mohamed Safadi, an experienced politician who is seen as acceptable to both sides. Nawfal said no eligible figure worth his salt would currently want to replace Al-Hariri in the post, reserved under Lebanon's sectarian system for a Sunni Muslim. "It would be hard to find a strong Sunni figure who would be willing to step into Al-Hariri's shoes, at least one that respects himself and has standing among the Sunnis," he said. Al-Assad's public support for Al-Hariri suggests Syria is holding out for a positive result from the expected consultations. The Syrian-Saudi rapprochement persists, and the Syrians and their allies still appear to hope they can gain Al-Hariri's acquiescence.
