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A waiting agreement
Published in Al-Ahram Weekly on 21 - 10 - 2010

After weeks of build-up, Ahmadinejad's visit to Lebanon passed peacefully. Now all eyes are back on the Hariri tribunal, Lucy Fielder reports from Beirut
It was the symbolism rather than the content that was significant in the end. Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's visit did not plunge Lebanon into chaos, nor did he particularly embarrass his hosts, the Lebanese president and prime minister, as much as Iranian-backed Hizbullah.
But the first state visit by an Iranian president highlighted the fact that Tehran's regional weight is growing despite US efforts, and gave it official ties to another Arab country, four months after international sanctions were tightened. Alongside the expected comments on Israel, predictions that the Zionists would "eventually disappear" and praise for the resistance, when it came to Lebanese internal affairs Ahmadinejad trod a relatively careful balance.
Ahmadinejad spent the first morning at Baabda Presidential Palace meeting President Michel Suleiman, who invited him, as well as Prime Minister Saad Al-Hariri and Amal leader and Parliamentary Speaker Nabih Berri. A roll call of MPs from all sides walked up the red carpet to greet him, and even those who have campaigned against Iranian and Syrian influence in Lebanon for years grinned to bear it. The visit did not sit well with the parliamentary majority led by Al-Hariri, but those of his allies who commented tried to separate this trip from Iran's general policy in Lebanon.
"We are not concerned about the visit but developments after it, especially since Iran's neighbours are defying another team of Lebanese, some laws, and the Special Tribunal for Lebanon and its indictment," said Amin Gemayel, leader of the Phalangists. Samir Geagea, the head of the Lebanese Forces, praised as "moderate" Ahmadinejad's speech at Baabda, in which the Iranian president said Tehran wanted a united, strong Lebanon. He also signed economic agreements and reportedly a loan of $450 million for power and water-related projects.
Nonetheless, it was lost on no one that more than half of Ahmadinejad's agenda focused on the resistance side, not surprising since an estimated $1 billion of Iranian funds enabled the rebuilding of southern homes and villages after Israel destroyed them in 2006. He attended vast Hizbullah- organised rallies and received a rapturous welcome in the southern suburbs and the southern towns of Bint Jbeil, on the border with Israel, and Qana, twice the site of Israeli bombings that caused mass civilian casualties.
"I think the visit was a success from Ahmadinejad's point of view and from Hizbullah's, but others who are opposed to Hizbullah won't have been so happy," said Rami Khouri, director of the Issam Fares Institute of Public Policy and International Affairs at the American University of Beirut. "It just accentuated the ideological divisions that already existed in Lebanon."
Ahmadinejad said in Bint Jbeil -- a border town whose fierce resistance to Israeli invasion in the 2006 war caused Hizbullah to crown it the "Resistance Capital" -- that the Special Tribunal for Lebanon was a purely domestic affair, and also that he had invited Al-Hariri to visit Iran. But the tribunal's findings will touch Tehran if, as media reports and the Shia group itself expect, Hizbullah members are indicted for the 2005 killing of Rafik Al-Hariri, a Sunni. The comment appeared to be an attempt at least to show that Iran had no intention of meddling in or stirring up sectarian strife.
All eyes are now on the Special Tribunal. It was reportedly high on the agenda when Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad met Saudi King Abdullah bin Abdel-Aziz in Riyadh on Sunday. With Al-Assad supporting Hizbullah and Saudi Arabia a long-standing supporter of Al-Hariri and the court, the two rivals for regional influence are diametrically opposed. But their meeting, following an unprecedented July summit in Beirut, shows they remain keen to keep a lid on tensions.
Lebanese media reports have increasingly speculated about a coming domestic settlement over the court. The indictment is widely expected late this year or early next, although the tribunal has remained silent on its date and content. "I don't think there'll be a formal agreement, but they'll negotiate as they're doing now, whether through regional or local talks or through clashes on the streets," Khouri said. "There's likely to be some sort of internal Lebanese or regional resolution."
One option that might be examined is trying the accused in Lebanese courts, Khouri said. Most people in Lebanon and -- with a few exceptions -- abroad would like to see a solution. It is unclear where that would leave the tribunal or what the international fallout would be. "The international community does not have a strong track record on dealing with Lebanese rights," Khouri said. "The Lebanese people know that, so no one is really counting on the US or UN stepping in."
As Al-Ahram Weekly went to press, a cabinet meeting was scheduled to discuss the "false witnesses" issue -- that of several figures who came forward with evidence after the Hariri killing that they later retracted. Four generals who ran Lebanese intelligence during the era of Syrian domination were arrested and held in arbitrary detention for four years based on the witnesses' testimony.
Now that Ahmadinejad's visit is over, Hizbullah is expected by many to escalate its campaign to undermine the tribunal. Al-Hariri remains in a bind; having staked much of his political career on the court and "the truth", he is under pressure to dissolve Lebanon's political links with it.
Ibrahim Al-Amine, the chairman of the board of Al-Akhbar newspaper and who is viewed as close to the opposition, spelt out what may be the shape of the opposition campaign to come in an opinion piece this week. The "work schedule" began with "abolishing the legal frameworks based on which Lebanon sent a letter to the Security Council in order to establish the international tribunal -- including the financing clause -- because they violated the constitutional framework and have not been endorsed by parliament," he wrote.
Also on the agenda was "abolishing all the agreements between Lebanon and the international tribunal that allow the tribunal and investigation teams working with it to do whatever they want in Lebanon, because the cabinet that allowed this is not a constitutional one."


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