As Lebanon's new prime minister sets about forming a new government, the coming days will be crucial, Lucy Fielder reports Lebanon's new prime minister was appointed amid rocketing sectarian tensions this week, stoked by the perception that the Shia Hizbullah party had "stolen" the key Sunni seat of power under Lebanon's sectarian system of power-sharing. Najib Mikati is of course a Sunni, and a billionaire tycoon. A moderate who has good relations with Syria but also, until this week, the Al-Hariri camp, Mikati is a veteran politician with a strong constituency in Tripoli -- where due to patronage and a dire lack of services, it helps to be very rich. He served briefly as caretaker prime minister in 2005 in the political crisis that followed Rafik Al-Hariri's assassination. But the late Rafik's son, Saad Al-Hariri, was the main choice of most Sunnis, who overwhelmingly back the Special Tribunal for Lebanon into Al-Hariri's killing, which lies at the heart of Lebanon's latest crisis. Some have questioned whether Mikati will bow to pressure from his Sunni co-religionists and decline to form a government, necessitating renewed consultations to find a replacement and perhaps leading to prolonged deadlock. "I'm inclined to think Mikati might bow to pressure and resign. The Sunnis will treat him as a pariah -- this is political suicide," said Hilal Khashan, a political science professor at the American University of Beirut. Khashan and other analysts agreed that that seemed to be the main point of Monday and Tuesday's protests: Hizbullah may be deemed beyond such pressure, but Mikati could be shamed into resignation. Assuming that attempt fails, the immediate question is what kind of cabinet Mikati will assemble. Despite the "day of rage" waged by Al-Hariri's followers and statements by the former prime minister and his MPs that their Future movement will not take part in any government under a Hizbullah-backed candidate, dramatic changes in position can never be ruled out in Lebanon. Mikati himself commands respect in Lebanon, including among its Sunni community, so it is more the fact that he is not Al-Hariri, and was supported by Hizbullah's alliance, rather than the man or his politics that the pro-Western 14 March movement objects to. Mikati said in his acceptance speech he "extended a hand" to the other team, and Hizbullah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah called for national partnership. It is clear that the March 8 movement, or former opposition -- how frequently alliance names switch in Lebanon -- would prefer as broad a coalition as possible. That would boost its credibility as it takes divisive decisions on the Special Tribunal for Lebanon over the next few months. Mikati would not comment on the structure of the new cabinet. "But I hope for the participation of all parties and if some refuse, I will decide on either a technocrat cabinet or a combined one in cooperation with President Michel Suleiman," he said. Khashan said Al-Hariri had been strengthened in his own community over the past few days and Mikati would struggle to form a cabinet that embraced credible 14 March Sunnis. "If Mikati succeeds in forming a cabinet, it would be a cabinet of technocrats whose only job would be to guide the country through the indictments stage and make decisions that will be difficult for the Sunni community to swallow," he said. Hizbullah wanted Al-Hariri to cancel Lebanon's protocol of cooperation with the court and withdraw Lebanon's judges and funding. That will now be the powerful party's expectation of any new cabinet. But Karim Makdisi, associate director of the American University of Beirut's Issam Fares Institute, said the fact that the protests were smaller in number than expected, and did not shut down the country or prevent Mikati being sworn in, might prompt pragmatism. As always, Lebanon's key actors are not divorced from their backers, in Al-Hariri's case, Saudi Arabia, which may decide a sectarian stand-off here is not to its advantage. Makdisi believed Mikati would not have put himself forward without a "green, or at least yellow" light from the Saudis. "It all depends what role the Saudis, and to some extent Qatar and the Gulf states, play in getting 14 March elements on the side. If they decide on a push to bring back stability then that's what will happen," he said. Hizbullah, too, may be hoping for a return to the Syrian-Saudi negotiations whose failure was announced two weeks ago, prompting the group and its allies to resign and bring down Al-Hariri's national unity government. 8 March says a compromise on the tribunal was in the offing at that time, but US pressure on Al-Hariri thwarted it. But if Mikati cannot form a unity cabinet, Makdisi agreed the most likely choice was a small government of technocrats, either with 14 March-approved figures included to preserve stability but save face, or formed simply by Hizbullah's alliance. Even then, he did not expect Mikati to cave in immediately on the tribunal. "It will be interesting to see what Mikati does, he can't be seen to accept this easily and without discussion since they're already portraying him as a Sunni apostate," he said. "He will have to hold some sort of national dialogue." Hizbullah has made clear that the tribunal is a "red line", as illustrated this week by its decision to back a prime minister other than Al-Hariri even though it must have known that would prompt Sunni resentment and the usual talk of an "Iranian-backed coup". All eyes are on the indictment, which may be announced in the coming two months and is expected to indict Hizbullah. Many fear Sunni-Shia tensions, now at their highest levels for several years, could boil over if the group is accused of killing the former premier. Hizbullah sees it as a US-Israeli plot and denies involvement. Makdisi said the rhetoric and start of cabinet negotiations of the next few days would show whether regional and international powers such as the United States would urge Al-Hariri to stand his ground, or work behind the scenes for unity. If the former scenario emerges, many in Lebanon fear a period of international isolation for the country as the "Hizbullah-dominated" government severs ties with the court and rallies behind the principle of resistance. And foremost among fears, as always, is whether Israel decides the time is ripe for another attempt to wipe out Hizbullah after it failed in 2006, and that "Hizbullah rule" provides a pretext. "I think the Israelis are ready and the US is keeping them on a leash," Khashan said. "If this cabinet goes through, they have an additional reason, not that they need one." Makdisi believed the Israelis did not want a war yet. "But they will try their best to provoke by increasing overflights, and perhaps assassination attempts. The one constant is that the Israelis will try to stir the pot and benefit from sectarian tensions."
