Government collapse and the postponement of consultations to find a new prime minister: Lebanon feels the déjà vu, Lucy Fielder reports from Beirut Another chapter in the history of Lebanese political crises opened last week when Hizbullah and its allies brought down the government with the resignation of 11 ministers. This week, consultations at the presidential Baabda Palace to find a replacement for now caretaker Prime Minister Saad Al-Hariri were postponed. As Hizbullah moves to back former premier Omar Karami, Al-Hariri currently retains the largest backing in the Sunni community. The most likely outcome, analysts say, is deadlock. Crowning Lebanon's descent into stalemate, Daniel Bellemare, the prosecutor for the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL) in The Hague, handed his first indictment and supporting evidence to pre-trial Judge Daniel Fransen for examination. "This indictment is not only a first step on the road to ending impunity in Lebanon; it is also the first step of the judicial process," Bellemare said. Fransen is expected to take around six weeks to decide whether the contents of the confidential file can be accepted as evidence and charges pressed. According to media reports and Hizbullah itself, members of the Shia Muslim group will be named in connection with the assassination of Sunni former prime minister Rafik Al-Hariri in 2005. That likelihood has raised fears of renewed tensions between the two communities in Lebanon, at loggerheads since the Al-Hariri killing plunged Lebanon into turmoil. In a speech Sunday, Hizbullah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah accused the tribunal of succumbing to US pressure by handing over the indictments, which have been expected for several months, on the day prime ministerial consultations were due. Nothing in the outlook for upcoming political negotiations appears likely to assuage growing tensions. Under Lebanon's sectarian system, the premiership is a Sunni post. Al-Hariri remains, at the moment, the most popular choice for Sunnis in Lebanon. But Nasrallah confirmed that neither his group nor its allies would be backing him. At time of writing, Tripoli zaim, or strongman, Karami appeared to be the opposition candidate, a fact the Shia speaker of parliament and Amal leader Nabih Berri referred to in a speech early this week. After months of drift, the opposition announced that diplomacy by Syria and Saudi Arabia -- which back Hizbullah and Al-Hariri respectively -- to end the impasse broke down last week while Al-Hariri was in the United States. Within 24 hours, 11 ministers had quit. Nasrallah said in his speech that Saudi Arabia and Al-Hariri had agreed to Hizbullah's terms over distancing Lebanon from the tribunal, but then caved to US pressure. "The results of the talks reached the following: how to neutralise Lebanon. The cabinet meets and withdraws the Lebanese judges from the STL; Lebanon stops funding the tribunal and Lebanon's agreement with the STL is abrogated," Nasrallah said. Pouring fuel on the fire this week was the broadcast by pro-opposition channel Al-Jadid, or New TV, of a recording of a meeting in which Al-Hariri met alleged "false witness" Zuheir Al-Siddiq, who presented testimony to the UN probe but later retracted it, discussing the latter's offer to supply names and evidence that Syria killed his father. Head of the Information Branch Colonel Wissam Al-Hassan and International Investigation Commission Deputy Chief Gerhard Lehmann were also present. Although the recording appears to be from around September 2005, early in the investigation, Al-Hariri had previously denied having anything to do with any of the "false witnesses" who have formed the lynchpin of Hizbullah's campaign against the tribunal. "The mere fact that he was in contact with Siddiq is enough to further poison the well of public trust in the STL," political commentator Elias Muhanna wrote on his blog, Qifa Nabki. Al-Hariri's office confirmed the conversation took place, but said Al-Jadid had been selective in airing only parts that would draw media attention. On Monday, President Michel Suleiman is to start two-day consultations with the political blocs and independent MPs, at which they should name their choice of candidate for the prime minister post. The votes of a simple majority, or half-plus-one, of the 128 members of parliament are needed for a new prime minister to be sworn in. A standoff and increased sectarian tensions on that front too looks all but inevitable. Paul Salem, director of the Carnegie Endowment's Middle East Centre in Beirut, said there were three options ahead, none of them appealing. The first is that Hizbullah's coalition finds a majority and nominates its own candidate, for example, Karami. The second is that Saad Al-Hariri gets majority backing (his "14 March" allies have made clear they will accept no one else) and is sworn in again, with vehement opposition and hindrance from Hizbullah. The third is that no majority is found, leading to weeks or months of paralysis. Key to all scenarios is which side of the fence the "independents", such as Druze leader Walid Jumblatt, come down on. For the moment, they are staying put, which is one reason for the postponement. "Berri and Jumblatt were worried about the opposition trying to do this alone and believe that was a dangerous and explosive option," said Salem. The extra week (consultations were scheduled for the 17 January originally) also gives last-ditch diplomacy a chance. Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Hamad bin Jassim Al-Thani and Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu were due in Beirut to meet the president and two rival factions as Al-Ahram Weekly went to press, the day after they met Bashar Al-Assad in Damascus. "The hope is that Turkey and Qatar will persuade Syria not to go down that road," Salem said. "The opposition forming a government really would be seen by the Sunnis as a declaration of war." Jumblatt, a wily politician who has not for the first time emerged as kingmaker, echoed such concerns. Pro- opposition newspaper Al-Akhbar reported that: "Jumblatt agrees with a theory adopted by a number of former opposition figures, that selecting a prime minister other than Saad Al-Hariri will turn him into an oppressed leader, which will generate solidarity with him." The Druze leader was a hawkish member of the "14 March" movement after Rafik Al-Hariri's assassination, and so is part of Saad Al-Hariri's parliamentary majority. But he has moved closer to the opposition after the fighting of May 2008 spread to his Chouf Mountain stronghold. With his bloc of 11 MPs, he is now being courted by both sides. The two rival blocs are neck and neck, each with around 58 or 59 MPs. Also sought after are independents such as Zahle MP Nicholas Fattoush. US Ambassador to Lebanon Maura Connelly received an official dressing down from caretaker Foreign Minister Ali Shami after she visited Fattoush the night before parliamentary consultations were supposed to start and discussed the nomination question with him. Al-Hariri being sworn in again also carries risks. Opposition supporters are likely to be frustrated, and constant opposition blocking of his attempts to rule could also up tensions. The issuing of arrest warrants or any official request of Lebanon by the STL could force matters to a head. "It's possible that the prevailing view will be 'Let's not push for confrontation but let this situation stay for a while,'" Salem said. "The last government took five months to form; we don't need this one next Tuesday. Paralysis is better than death." Lebanon is no stranger to long periods of political deadlock. It took a year and a half and a visit to the brink of civil war before Suleiman was appointed in 2008.
