There are low expectations in Syria about the ruling Baath Party's next convention, slated for the beginning of next year, writes Bassel Oudat in Damascus With Syria's ruling Baath Party slated to hold a convention early next year, sceptical Syrian nationals are pointing to the party's last convention, held in 2005, of whose many resolutions only one has thus far been implemented. Other decisions made at the meeting and promises of freedoms for opposition parties, the media and civil society remain unrealised. According to the country's constitution, the Baath Arab Socialist Party is the single party that leads Syria, while the Progressive National Front (NPF), an alliance of a further nine political parties, follows the Baath Party's line. The Baath Party meets every five years to decide on the main lines the regime is to follow in all policy areas, domestic, foreign, economic, cultural and social, and the party's convention has become perhaps the only official forum in which national policies can be discussed. According to party rules, the leadership of the Baath transmits convention decisions to the executive branch of government, then following up and monitoring their implementation. In addition to policy, convention decisions cover appointments to government posts and party leadership and senior administrative positions. The party's 11th convention had originally been planned for June 2010, but the date came and went without any announcement of a gathering. Sources close to the regime now predict that the convention will be held at the beginning of next year, though there has been no announcement thus far as to what will be on the agenda. Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad has said that the success of the convention "relies on the outcome of the elections to it," adding that a main problem facing the Baath Party over the past five years has been the choice of proper election mechanisms. "We are looking at mechanisms that will bring the best candidates to the convention," Al-Assad said, since "they will be making decisions on behalf of the party as a whole." It was best to hold the meeting at a time when visions were clear, Al-Assad said, since the period was one "of rapid changes on the regional level and beyond." If the Baath Party convention is indeed held early next year, it will be the third such meeting to be presided over by Al-Assad. At the 2000 convention, Al-Assad was unanimously elected secretary-general of the Baath Party after the death of his father, president Hafez Al-Assad. The party convened again in 2005, and at both meetings the party took significant decisions affecting Syrian politics and society. However, these were then largely ignored by the leadership and only selectively implemented. As a result, many Syrians are sceptical about the value of the party conventions, since hopes for change raised in them have subsequently been dashed. At the 2005 convention in particular, important decisions were made that, if implemented, could have significantly altered the direction of the Syrian state. These decisions, dealing with political parties, the press, civil society, freedoms, democracy and the introduction of a multi-party system, were subsequently shelved. One key resolution made at the 2005 convention had to do with drafting a law to allow the formation of political parties aside from the ruling Baath, allowing them to play a role in the country's political and societal life. The 2005 convention also approved a resolution to relax regulations on publication in Syria, expanding the amount of freedom enjoyed by the country's newspapers and banning the imprisonment of journalists. This resolution would have allowed the Syrian press more effectively to monitor the government and its policies, and it would have amended the country's Emergency Law and other ad hoc laws that have been in place in Syria over the past 47 years. The convention resolutions restricted the application of the Emergency and ad hoc laws, making all arrests subject to appeal to the country's prosecutor-general and referring detainees for trial in civilian courts. The convention also voted for the creation of a second chamber in the country's parliament, a Shura Council, and pressed for further efforts to be made in fighting corruption. However, the decisions made by the 2005 convention have not been implemented, and the status quo in the country has not changed. The only exception has been a resolution calling for the introduction of a social market system in the country, which has been fully implemented. The latter decision has had an enormous effect on the Syrian economy by introducing a more free-market economy, rescinding policies designed to protect state-owned industries and domestic producers and opening the floodgates to foreign imports. These economic changes have been accompanied by social changes, including the rise of a nouveau riche class, and increases in reports of tax evasion, corruption and unemployment levels, as well as a surge in the number of people living beneath the country's poverty line. Many Syrians have strongly criticised the economic changes, as have many in the country's media and even some in the Baath Party and its allies in the NPF. Reformers in the Baath assert that the party's principles and platform, drafted in 1947 and amended in 1963, are now in need of overhaul, especially since there are discrepancies between the party's socialist-style principles and what is in fact taking place in the country. Syrian opposition figures are also pressing for the party to abandon its opposition to a multi-party system, aside from the parties incorporated in the NPF, and to allow the establishment of privately owned media organisations, aside from the media run by the party or state. At present, the creation of civil society groups is banned under the country's emergency law, passed in March 1963 when the Baath Party came to power, "with the aim of buttressing the power of the regime against [the enemies of the people] inside and outside the state." Some members of the Baath Party claim that the reason why decisions made at the 2005 convention have thus far not been implemented is because Syria has been facing serious problems over the past five years. Not only has the country had to end its military presence in Lebanon, and fend off charges that it was involved in the assassination of former Lebanese prime minister Rafik Al-Hariri, it has also had to face sanctions from the US, whose military presence in Iraq might be considered a threat to Syria. Damascus has also been shunned by some members of the EU and some Arab states. These factors, commentators argue, have meant that the Syrian regime has been unable to implement the 2005 resolutions, and party sources say that the next convention will be more effective in taking decisions and eventually in implementing them. Yet, such arguments do not seem to have convinced many Syrians, who have become used to discussion about the need to introduce political pluralism and strengthen the media and democracy in the country, without in fact ever seeing these things come to pass. While Article Eight of the country's constitution gives a leading role to the party and its membership, many Syrians will be well aware that in practice executive decisions are simply rubber- stamped by those lower down in the hierarchy, and presidential decisions regarding candidates for ministerial positions, members of parliament, governors and senior posts are rarely if ever contradicted. The party does not initiate policy decisions, whether in the political, economic, cultural or other spheres, without first consulting the country's president. While few in Syria expect real change to come out of next year's party convention, there is hope that the meeting, if it is indeed held, will be able to take decisions aimed at resolving difficulties facing the population. More important even than taking such decisions, however, will be the possibility of actually implementing them.
