One year after Al-Hariri's killing, and Syria is struggling. Omayma Abdel-Latif in Damascus examines prospects for political reform in the wake of 12 unprecedented months When former Syrian Vice President Abdel-Halim Khaddam broke ranks last month and waged a war of words against the Syrian regime in Saudi-financed media outlets, many analysts rushed to predict that President Bashar Al-Assad's days were numbered. The staging of Khaddam's defection on the Dubai-based Al-Arabyyia Channel, according to one Syrian intelligence source, was meant to create a chain reaction inside the regime by encouraging others to follow suit and thus forcing the regime to implode. But Khaddam, who hardly enjoys a power base in Syria, failed to present himself as the democratic alternative to the authoritarian rule of which he had been a key architect for the past 40 years. The significance of Khaddam's revelation, observers argue, is that it came at a time when US-French alliance was threatening the regime in Damascus with harsh sanctions under the pretext that it was not cooperating enough with the international investigation Commission set up to probe the killing of former Lebanese prime minister Rafik Al-Hariri. Syrians and many Arabs read the subtext of that charge to mean that Syria is not fully cooperating with America's regional schemes, particularly in relation to Palestine and Iraq. While Hariri's death reshaped the political scene in Lebanon, Syria has undoubtedly been equally influenced. Perhaps the most important feature of the fallout is the termination of 30 years of Syrian military and intelligence presence in Lebanon. The Syrian withdrawal from Lebanon forced a redrafting of both Syrian-Lebanese relations -- presently at their lowest ebb with Syria being accused by some of its former allies of plotting to kill Hariri -- as well as Syria's regional role. The full implications for the country's internal political development remain to be seen. As the country prepares for an election year in 2007 with presidential, parliamentary elections as well as local municipalities elections, Syria stands at a crossroads. Assad's first term in office, which ends this year, has been subject to much analysis. Perhaps one of the bigger questions routinely aired in the debate is whether or not after five years in office Assad is fully in control. Syria under Assad, argued some , has undoutedly seen a number of changes that many considered crucial to the country's political development. "From the outside, something has indeed changed in Syrian society and political culture," Anwar Al-Benni, a lawyer and human rights activist told Al-Ahram Weekly. "People can openly criticise the system; they can talk about corrupt politicians and the harsh economic crisis. But from the point of view of the legal structure which protects the authoritarian rule it is very much business as usual," said Al-Benni. Arguably, Hariri's death accelerated a number of political changes inside Syria. Prominent opposition figure Micheal Kilo firmly believes that Hariri's killing will prove a milestone in Syria's modern history. He even compares Hariri's killing with the Ein Al-Rumana bus incident that sparked the Lebanese Civil War in 1975. "Both Lebanon and Syria are getting closer to a very difficult moment in their history where the old order is falling down," he said. However, news and analysis which prophesed an imminent collapse of the regime contradict with the realities on the ground. ALL FOR SYRIA: Never has there been a surge in patriotic sentiment more than is showing now in the streets of Damascus. There is hardly a building in Damascus where the Syrian flag is not flying. "God protects Syria" is a banner spread in many a street, with the picture of Al-Assad waving next to the Syrian flag. Songs and plays have stoked the fires of patriotism and national sentiment recently. On the other hand, Syria's enemies have come to the forefront of national consciousness, including some Lebanese leaders, such as Druze leader Walid Jumblatt, along with the Bush administration, the UN and, of course, Israel. Traditionally, Syrians have been known to be shy about their patriotism, considering themselves part of the larger Arab context. "Arab nationalism for a long time took precedence over Syrian nationalism but recently this has changed," Elias Mrad, editor-in-chief of Al-Baath newspaper, the Baath Party's mouthpiece, told the Weekly. Mrad and others explain the surge in national sentiment as a reaction to what they describe as the wave of attacks against all things Syrian that emerged in Lebanon in the aftermath of Al-Hariri's death. "Lebanese racist practices which make mockery of Syrian symbols, including the flag, the dialect and even the food, let alone political leaders, played a great role in reviving those national sentiments," proffers Mrad. Al-Baath came under heavy pressure from the public, Mrad notes, to respond to such attacks. "It took us at least six months before we could respond to the war of words launched in some Lebanese media outlets against Syria." Soon it became common to read fiery editorials in all of Syria's main three newspapers Teshrine, Al-Thawra and Al-Baath, harshly criticising what one figure once dubbed "Lebanon's neoconservatives". Although many analysts, particularly in US think-tanks, rushed to conclude that "the cedar revolution," as dubbed by international media, would soon find its way to the streets of Damascus, the Syrian regime emerged as the first beneficiary of the rise of patriotic sentiment. "The regime has managed to stir those sentiments in a way that makes people rally behind it, rather than revolt against it," Al-Benni explained. A solidarity tent was set up on the road leading up to the US Embassy in Damascus. It brought together thousands of Syrians to protest international pressures bearing down their country. Although there is hardly any debate on the impact of Al-Hariri's death on the country's internal politics, Syrian opposition figures argue that Syria's withdrawal from Lebanon has adversely affected the political reform process in the country. While it is still premature to assess the impact of the withdrawal on Syria's internal political scene, the redrawing of Syria's regional role will undoubtedly leave a mark on internal politics. Changes that have taken place in the Baath, the country's ruling party, have fundamentally altered the party-state relation, Baath Party officials insist. One most important development, they argue, is the limiting of the party's role in day-to-day politics. High-ranking officials, nonetheless, refuse to describe the change as "a de-Baathification" of the state. MODERNISING THE BAATH: Ayman Abdennour, 41, likes to describe himself as a modern Baathist. Abdennour, a Christian who joined the Baath Party at the age of 17, is leading a reform movement inside the party and firmly believes there is room for change and reform. Abdennour runs a Web site called "All for Syria" where articles by the staunchest opponents of the Syrian regime are routinely posted. He is against a de-Baathification process akin to that implemented in Iraq following the US invasion in March 2003. "De-Baathfication in the sense that we put Baath Party members outside of the political process and hierarchy of government cannot be done," says Abdennour. "The Baath Party is not a party in the Western sense of the word. The Baath in Syria is more of a movement that brings together the highly intellectual elite side-by-side with the illiterate, liberals with conservatives. It is also inclusive of trade union members, labour as well as entrepreneurs. It is a reflection of all segments of society." A de-Baathification process, according to such a reading is, therefore, impossible to achieve. Abdennour believes that one step on the road to democratic evolution in Syria would be to abolish Article 8 of the constitution which puts the monopoly of political power in the hands of the Baath Party; a long-standing demand of the Syrian opposition. The next move, according to Abdennour, would be to call for free and fair elections. The Baath, he said, is likely to get 30 to 40 per cent of the vote. "I think the government and the regime in Syria are heading towards this in the forthcoming parliamentarian elections in 2007," Abdennour disclosed, adding that inside the Baath there are reform forces at work. Their aim, he explained, is to modernise Baath ideology and build bridges with other political forces in society including the opposition inside Syria. The Baath held its last congress in July 2005. A sense of disappointment prevailed when the congress issued few, if any, radical resolutions, coming only two months after the Syrian withdrawal from Lebanon. Abdennour, however, believes that there were important resolutions passed, one of which was to convert Syria to a social market economy. The economic situation in the country has alarmingly declined. Complaints about price hikes and low salaries are voiced everywhere. Syria, according to the Arab Human Development Report, has the lowest level salaries in the Arab world. With an economic growth rate set at 3.7 per cent and a poverty-line population estimated, according to official figures, at 1.5 million out of Syria's 18 million total population, many Syrians are struggling to make ends meet. Earlier this month, in an attempt to relieve the economic burden, Al-Assad ordered a pay rise for civil servants of 800 lira (little over $15). Abdennour and other members in the Baath Party who spoke to the Weekly insist that there is a serious will on the part of the party's leading members to introduce reforms to the party structure and political agenda; the problem is more about the pace of the change. "The majority of Baathists want reform one way or the other; the problem is how to do it. There is a tendency to take it slowly. The reformists inside the Baath Party, on the other hand, want to push ahead with changes as fast as possible but maintain stability and balance. They don't want to make a wrong move." Syria is currently run by a coalition of eight parties, including the Baath Party, called the National Progressive Front. Regime critics argue that the front is only a façade behind which the Baath holds the strings of power. But Baathists respond by pointing out that several officials of the current government are not party members and that gone are the times when party membership was the sole criteria for ascending the state hierarchy. Others agree. The Baath Party, in the words of Ibrahim Daraji, law professor at Damascus University, is limiting its role both in state and society. There is no place where this is clearer than in the universities. Daraji speaks from personal experience, as he was promoted to a senior position without being a cadre of the party or even asked to. Daraji is supervising a United Nations-run project, in cooperation with the Syrian government, which aims to provide a draft law for elections. The project is part of an agreement signed by the Syrian government and the United Nations Development Programme, to provide proposals for a new elections law that would comply with the international standards. The present law that regulates the local council elections, for example, dates to 1971. Much in the way of change has taken place since. The project is initially to be carried out in three governorates: Tartous, Hama and Deraa. What was striking, according to Daraji, is the way in which people freely expressed their critical views of the current law and state malpractices. "We dealt with issues about electoral propaganda and state control over the media and we had an opportunity to meet with voters who were willing to cooperate and gave their views," Daraji said. Daraji nonetheless firmly believes that the process of democratic opening in Syria will have to come from the top, namely the president. "There should be a commitment from all parties to expand the existing space for democratic evolution." The problem, he added, is that "there is a deep crisis of confidence between the regime and the opposition." In this context, strained relations with Lebanon can only bear negatively on the process of politically opening in the country, Daraji believes. "If the regime's survival is at stake, the issue of political reform will definitely not be one of its top priorities," he said.
