Declaring that its patience with the United Nations is running out, Iraq's ruling Revolution Command Council (RCC) decided last week to call for "a comprehensive national debate" in order to decide what measures Iraq should take to "protect the interests of the people and the security and sovereignty of the homeland." "Why should Iraq tolerate the continuation of UN sanctions as long as no one knows when they will be lifted," thundered the statement issued by the RCC headed by President Saddam Hussein. It was another threat by Saddam's government to the Security Council over what Iraq considers as UN delays and procrastination over putting an end to the long and tedious process of dismantling its weapons of mass destruction, which is a precondition for the lifting of the harsh economic sanctions imposed after Iraq's 1990 invasion of Kuwait. The 15-page statement was issued just three days before Richard Butler started another visit to Baghdad for a new round of talks with Iraqi officials to review progress in the work of the inspectors. The visit coincided with the eighth anniversary of Iraq's invasion of Kuwait. During his previous visit in June, Butler agreed with Iraqi Deputy Premier Tarek Aziz on a working programme under which Iraq should have provided explanations related to what UNSCOM -- United Nations Special Commission (on Iraq) -- described as missing chemical and biological weapons. That was supposed to be Butler's main mission in Baghdad this week. It was also the issue which brought their differences to a head at their first meeting this week. After three hours of what UN sources in Baghdad described as "extremely hot discussions", Aziz came out of the meeting at Iraq's Ministry of Foreign Affairs to declare to journalists that Butler was playing "games". Aziz added that he had told Butler: "Since it is the wish of the American administration to prolong the current deadlock and perpetuate sanctions... you are merely carrying out American policy." Such harsh language about the UN chief inspector is not unusual in the Iraqi media, but the fact that the accusations were made on the first day of Butler's visit, and by Aziz himself, must have thrown Butler's latest mission into confusion. So why is Iraq sabre-rattling now? Simply put, hopes of an early end to the embargo raised by the agreement brokered by UN chief Kofi Annan and Saddam Hussein in February have been dashed by Butler and his UNSCOM inspection team. As the RCC's statement shows, Iraq had already realised that, contrary to its hopes, sanctions would not be lifted by the end of the year and a new stand-off was probably the only way to highlight its grievances. One of the reasons for Iraqi frustration was a report by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to the Security Council on 27 July in which it concluded that, although it had found no evidence that the regime had nuclear weapons, Iraq's failure to account for key nuclear equipment and technical blueprints leave open the possibility that it had hidden the necessary expertise and the material for use in the future. The IAEA, which acts as the UN monitoring arm, plays a key role in the whole situation. Before the Council can declare Iraq in compliance with its resolutions related to the invasion of Kuwait, the IAEA must inform the Security Council that Baghdad has done what is required to end its nuclear programme. Only then can sanctions be lifted. The United States and Britain were pleased by the IAEA's report because it did not endorse the position held by some of the Council members -- especially Russia, France and China -- who were calling for a declaration that Iraq's nuclear programme was at an end, a reward Iraq had hoped to receive for its cooperation with the UN inspectors. But Iraq, which has always pressed for a recognition of its efforts at compliance to date, must have seen in the IAEA's announcement a serious setback to its efforts to have inspection and verification visits made less frequent and officious. Butler's arrival in Iraq came just days after the publication of the IAEA report and his reception testifies to the nervousness it had engendered. The Iraqi dinar was down in value as Iraqis rushed to convert the local currency into dollars, forcing the price of basic commodities up. So, when Butler started his talks with Aziz on Monday, the scene was set for confrontation. The collapse of the talks and the abrupt departure of Butler on Tuesday were the inevitable conclusion and signal Iraq's determination to deal firmly with regard to both the UN inspectors and the wider issue of the embargo. The big question is what Iraq can or will do to confront the United Nations in the weeks running up to the October meeting of the Security Council in which it will review Iraq's compliance with resolutions on dismantling of chemical and nuclear weapons. All eyes are now on the National Assembly, Iraq's parliament, which is expected to agree on a course of action when it meets today (Thursday, 6 August) to discuss the outcome of Butler's visit. This is expected to be the beginning of the national debate on ending sanctions unilaterally promised by the Iraqi leadership. Whatever the outcome of such a debate, the question is once again what Iraq's options actually are should it decide to engage the United Nations not merely with broadcasts, but also with deeds? There are several possible scenarios. The Iraqi army could storm the northern Kurdish enclave with its tanks to show its defiance of the US and British protection of the Kurds. Alternatively, it could defy the no-fly zones imposed by the United States and Britain in the north and south. Short of military offensives, the government may try to mobilise Iraqi public opinion against the inspectors by orchestrating demonstrations or obstructing their activities, basically preventing them from doing their jobs. Further afield, it may also seek to muster Arab public opinion against the Americans by urging supporters to protest against the United States in the Arab capitals. It may even host and help radical pan-Arabist and Islamist groups to attack American interests in the area. Whatever the result of this week's tough talking, it remains to be seen how far the Iraqi leadership are prepared to go.
