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Licence to strike
Published in Al-Ahram Weekly on 08 - 08 - 2002

As the debate surrounding a possible US strike against Iraq intensifies, opponents are racing to prevent the foreseeable. Dina Ezzat reports
Iraq is determined to use every diplomatic and public relations tool available to prevent the United States from moving forward with its declared intentions to oust the regime of Saddam Hussein. "The Americans are talking about removing the regime in Baghdad but this is not really what they are aiming at; what they are targeting is Iraq, the Arab world and the Arab support for Palestine," commented one Iraqi diplomat who spoke to Al-Ahram Weekly on condition of anonymity.
According to this diplomat, the Bush administration will not stop at removing the Iraqi president and installing a puppet regime. "The Americans want to divide Iraq as much as they want to divide every single large and powerful Arab country," he said. He added, "They are working to divide Sudan, and it seems that they have succeeded. Soon they will move on Saudi Arabia and maybe even Iran, which has always been a strong Islamic ally of the Palestinian cause."
Arab diplomats agree that the US is unlikely to strike against Iraq before the end of this year. Congressional elections and international opposition may delay US plans. Diplomats feel that US strikes could come soon after the November elections, depending upon the level of international support. One diplomat notes, that "So far the US does not have any public support -- except from the British. And, they need a bit more."
But even British support may not be guaranteed. Prime Minister Tony Blair is facing strong opposition at home. This week former British Chief of Defence Staff Lord Bramall said that Britain risked being dragged into a messy and lengthy war if it supported a US military action against Iraq. "You don't have a licence to attack someone else's country just because you don't like the leadership," Bramall said. However, informed British sources have told the British media that Blair will support US President George Bush once the war is on.
And, according to statements made this week by Bush, the war against Saddam Hussein is on. Speaking to reporters earlier this week Bush suggested that he owed it "to civilisation" to remove the Iraqi leader.
Earlier this week, Baghdad invited Hans Blix, the chief UN weapons inspector, to visit the Iraqi capital for discussions on resuming weapons inspections. Washington and London stood alone to say that Hussein is playing games in order to delay the strike. US Secretary of State Colin Powell argued that "it is not a matter of inspection but a matter of disarmament."
According to statements made by several US officials, the war could be launched even if the inspectors are allowed to return. The country will probably have to go to war in Iraq, US Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Joseph Biden said this week. Biden advised President Bush to start lobbying international support.
Meanwhile, opponents to military action against Iraq are racing to block support for any United States actions. Iraqi sources say that Baghdad has been in touch with every potential ally inside and outside of the Arab world. Contacts have included Iraq's one-time foes such as Iran, and Arab states that have closer ties with the US like Jordan. "We are also maintaining communications with the Arab League. The league has a key role to play in preventing this attack," said one Iraqi source.
On Tuesday, Arab League Secretary-General Amr Moussa told reporters that he is speaking to UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan on the Iraq issue. According to Moussa, the Arab world remains "determinedly opposed" to any strike against Iraq or any Arab country. "We think that the invitation extended by Iraq to Blix to visit Baghdad for talks on the resumption of inspections is a step towards concluding this and other files related to Iraqi matters. There is a summit decision on this issue and all Arabs are committed to it." Reaffirming his commitment to work with all Arab countries to prevent any strike against Iraq, Moussa noted that there is serious concern about the increasing rhetoric directed against Iraq from Washington.
Moussa was not the only Arab official voicing concern about a probable US strike. This week the Saudi and Omani foreign ministers spoke vehemently against the strike. Both officials were in Tehran this week to join top Iranian officials in speaking against the strike and its potentially devastating impact on the Middle East.
In Washington, warnings against the negative impact of any attacks seem to be falling on deaf ears. Pentagon officials are not keeping their discussions over potential war plans secret. In recent weeks, Washington has been coordinating closely with Iraqi opposition groups to examine possible successors to Saddam Hussein. On Friday, 9 August, a group of Iraqi opposition leaders will be meeting with US administration officials for talks on the future of a post-Saddam Hussein Iraq.
The swift pace of war preparations is worrying some in Washington. Congressmen have been warning the administration that it is not wise to remove Hussein without carefully considering what may follow. This week Brent Scowcroft, US national security adviser during the Gulf War spoke out against a US strike on Iraq. Scowcroft suggested moves by the United States could lead to an explosion in the Middle East.
An Iraqi diplomat expressed Iraq's resolve and frustration by saying -- "We are trying the diplomatic approach but if we have to go to war then that is what we have to do."


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