The road to Baghdad

Despite a backdrop of overt US threats against Iraq, the Arab League secretary-general is urging the resumption of Baghdad-UN negotiations. Dina Ezzat writes
Less than 24 hours after US President George W Bush called Iraq "a member of an axis of evil," Arab League Secretary-General Amr Moussa and UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan met in Vienna. Moussa was discussing the potential resumption of dialogue between Baghdad and the international organisation.
On Monday, on the fringes of the World Economic Conference in New York, Moussa and Annan held another round of talks. Following the second round, the UN declared that it received -- through Moussa -- a message of Iraq's willingness to resume dialogue.
The objective of this dialogue is once again to send UN arms inspectors to Iraq. In return, Baghdad is hoping for a gradual removal of the sanctions imposed after its 1990 invasion of Kuwait.
"We will let them come back if the UN is going to be true to the text of the UN resolutions, which stipulate a gradual removal of sanctions in accordance with the level of Iraq's compliance," one senior Iraqi diplomat told Al-Ahram Weekly.
The UN is reacting "with caution" to Baghdad's communiqué. Simply being allowed into Iraq will not be enough. UN sources say that the international organisation wants its inspectors -- who have not been allowed in for close to three years -- to enjoy full "freedom of movement" in Iraq. "We don't want them to go there and be unable to inspect," said one UN source.
Annan, who has agreed to meet an Iraqi delegation in New York, will not make his decision on whether to revive dialogue with Baghdad on the basis of "freedom of movement" alone, however. There are also a host of international and regional factors to take into consideration.
The obvious first concern for Annan is to determine the political intentions of the US. According to a recent press statement by US National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice, the US administration has not made a final decision about whether or not it will strike Iraq.
"The battle inside the US administration is actually intensifying, with US Secretary of State Colin Powell being the only one who is really opposed to this strike," one Arab diplomat said.
As well as the US view, Annan must take into account the opinion of the four other members of the UN Security Council.
Russia is being firm with Baghdad about the need to allow inspectors back, but it is also moving closer politically to Iraq. According to one diplomatic source, "Baghdad is one of the few remaining cards that Moscow really holds in the Middle East."
China is being outspoken about its opposition to the inclusion of Baghdad in any US military plans. Britain is not offering its usual support to the US plan. British Foreign Secretary Jack Straw hinted to reporters in Washington that they should not take Bush's threats too seriously. France is said to be holding talks with Baghdad about reopening embassies.
Then there is Kuwait. Iraq's neighbour has been giving Moussa a very hard time over his efforts to spare Baghdad from any potential attacks as part of the expanded US "war against terrorism." The Kuwaiti press has been very clear in expressing a strong anti-Moussa sentiment. The Arab League Secretary- General -- who was once lauded by Kuwaiti papers as "a symbol of nationalism" -- is now described as a mere Saddam Hussein sympathiser. Furthermore, Kuwaiti administrative and legislative figures have been sending Moussa clear signs, both through media statements and regular diplomatic channels, that they want him to keep his hands off the Iraq-Kuwait file.
Moussa seems to be undeterred, however. The secretary-general is working hard to ensure that the next Arab summit in Beirut makes progress on this matter.
Nevertheless, Kuwait seems equally determined to keep Iraq out of the Arab fold. In Beirut a few days ago, Kuwaiti Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Mohamed Al-Sabbah promised generous financial aid to Lebanon and asked that Iraq be kept out of -- or on the margin of -- the agenda of the Arab summit. Kuwait is pursuing a diplomatic and media offensive to confine the agenda of the Beirut summit to the Palestinian issue and the war against terrorism.
Recent statements made in Washington by Jassem Al-Saqr, the head of the foreign affairs committee of the Kuwaiti parliament, suggest that as far as Kuwait is concerned, Iraq is considered a "terrorist state."
"Iraq is the richest and most dangerous state in the Middle East now," Al- Saqr said. The politician's visit was intended to "express support" for Bush's vision of an axis of evil.
But Annan, and indeed Moussa, have more on their plates than just Iraq. There are also developments in the Palestinian occupied territories to worry about.
"Those who want to fight evil should start their mission by putting an end to the evil exercised against the Palestinian people in their own occupied land," Moussa said in New York earlier this week. "As far as we are concerned, evil is about exercising military occupation. This is something that we will not stop worrying about unless it is properly addressed," Moussa added.
In the Middle East, eyes are also trained on Iran, which was also put on the evil axis list by Bush; and Turkey, which has repeatedly expressed concerns over the far-reaching regional consequences of strikes against Iraq.
A crucial date in this process is 30 May -- the day when the oil-for-food deal between Iraq and the UN is due for renewal or, as Baghdad hopes, revision. "A fuss over oil-for-food could be coupled with a fuss over the return of inspectors. The American president referred to inspectors as one of the reasons for calling Iraq a member of an axis of evil. So Iraq could then be subjected to serious strikes," one Arab diplomat commented.
He added, "This is what Moussa is trying hard to prevent because chaos in Iraq will mean further chaos in the Middle East and a better opportunity for the current Israeli government to pursue its policies of hostility more aggressively."
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