By Dina Ezzat As Egypt welcomed the halt of military action against Iraq, it was aware that there were no guarantees that the United States and Britain might not once more resort to the use of force in the foreseeable future. The Egyptian concern is that, if there is a next time, and if this next time is only a few weeks away, then the situation will be much bleaker and the challenges that were ushered in by the strikes much tougher. "I believe that the majority of the Arab [world] does not agree with the military action against Iraq," said Foreign Minister Amr Moussa. His words were perhaps the strongest to emerge from Cairo on the issue of the use of force against Iraq since the second Gulf war. The statement, sources say, is evidence of a development in the Egyptian position. Egypt has always hitherto been committed to the principle that diplomacy should be given priority in the recurring standoffs between Iraq and the United Nations. The message that Cairo was trying to get across grew more and more explicit over the past few days. In the foreign minister's own words: -- "There are so many question marks over [the rationale and motives] of the military action against Iraq, particularly in view of the critical nature of the situation." -- "Marginalising the UN Security Council is a destabilising factor for international peace and security." -- "The authority of the Security Council is not to be overruled by any one state or group of countries." -- "The inspection has been going on in Iraq for seven years and it is only logical to expect that some results would be reached and some files would be near to being closed." -- "Richard Butler has lost his credibility and it seems now that his [only] mission is to go to Iraq where he creates new problems that lead us to another [crisis]. I believe that Butler's mission has to come to an end." Indeed, it was not just Iraq which suffered substantial damage as a result of the air strikes. As the US and Britain were bombarding military and civilian targets in and out of Baghdad, the political and economic interests of the Arab world, the Gulf states included, were being threatened, if not undermined. Egypt certainly stands to lose some of its influence. "We know that we have to accommodate the US, with whom we intend to maintain stable relations," said a diplomatic source. "We are also aware of the views of the Gulf countries. But this doesn't mean that we can ignore the fact that Egypt has a role to play in this region and that this role is seriously challenged when Iraq is bombarded despite a great deal of Arab disapproval." If a second round of strikes by the US and Britain leaves Iraq in chaos and opens the door to the division scenario, then the situation will have become complicated indeed. Moreover, should Egypt go too far in accommodating the flagrant show of US hegemony, this could revive domestic support for certain factions of the militant Islamist movement. So, what can Egypt do in the face of the obvious constraints on its freedom of action? Egypt is not in any way prepared to "burn its fingers" with the US. "We have to deal with the matter very carefully," an official said. "But we will be talking with the US about this matter at length. For us to speak up against the strikes, irrespective of the tone used, which seems to be evolving toward more explicit disapproval, is a step along this road." But the road is not going to be very easy because the US appears determined to continue its unilateral use of force against Arab and Muslim countries in order to impose its version of regional order. Only a few weeks before the recent strikes against Iraq, the US had delivered smaller-scale military blows at Afghanistan and Sudan. And today the US is threatening Libya. Sources say that Washington has a problem with all countries that possess medium and/or long-range missiles and the potential to manufacture weapons of mass destruction. So, from an American perspective, Iran and Syria -- to mention only two countries -- would also be potential long-term targets. "In fact, one objective of the strikes against Iraq was to send the message that all those who dare defy Washington's wishes should be prepared to pay the price," commented one observer. One way Egypt could deal with the situation, without running too many risks with the US, is to attempt to re-integrate Iraq in the Arab world. "But this is very difficult," said a diplomatic source. Cairo could make gestures towards Baghdad through political statements and humanitarian assistance, but it cannot violate the UN-imposed sanctions. And Kuwait still counts for too much. "The Kuwaitis are not prepared to show tolerance. They insist that Iraq and Saddam are one and the same thing," said an informed source. Moreover, the Kuwaitis feel that the US is upholding their sovereignty. Consequently, it is very difficult to see Kuwait doing anything that might contradict US wishes on the Iraq issue. At the last meeting of the Damascus Declaration states -- Egypt, Syria and the six Gulf Cooperation Council members -- Kuwait and some other Gulf countries were coordinating very closely with the US on drafting the final version of the concluding communiqué. As a result, and despite Egyptian-Syrian efforts, the communiqué that emerged placed too much of the blame on the Iraqi government in its standoff with the UN inspection committee. Therefore, while Egypt supports a call issued by Yemen this week to hold a comprehensive Arab summit conference on the Iraq issue, it is aware that, for practical reasons, this summit will be difficult to organise. The Arab-Israeli conflict should be the obvious front for Egyptian action, sources say. Closer inter-Arab coordination on this issue could serve as a beginning for wider inter-Arab cooperation. This is also necessary in view of continuing Israeli intransigence which even the US has failed to contain. Cairo is currently working on stepping up the scope of consultations with the Palestinians and Jordanians so as to avoid the fragmenting of the Arab position. Egypt is also intensifying contacts with the Syrians and Saudi Arabians to make sure that the three pivotal countries do not have serious differences in their assessments of the regional situation and developments. As one official summed it up: "We cannot take too many risks, but at the same time we cannot tolerate attempts to reduce Egypt's regional role to that of a dwarf."
