Braced for the worst, Arab diplomats still hope war might be averted, reports Dina Ezzat Arab governments are well aware that they cannot prevent an American-led war against Iraq and it is no secret that some Arab states -- Kuwait and Qatar are merely the most obvious -- are already heavily involved in providing logistical support for the American attack. A number of key Arab countries, though, are making a determined attempt to provide both the Iraqi regime and the US administration with a face- saving exit out of the current situation. "The Americans have painted themselves into a corner by sending so many troops to the Gulf. The political costs would be extremely high if the US administration pulls out troops without having attained its declared objectives, the disarming of Iraq and the neutralising of Saddam Hussein's regime," commented a senior Arab diplomat. The Americans, he said, have climbed a tree, and the Arabs' best hope for averting war is to somehow provide a ladder down which the Americans can descend with dignity. A similar exit strategy is also required for Saddam Hussein in the unlikely event that he decides to respond to calls for him to step down. It is just such a double-exit that Saudi Arabia has been working on for the past few weeks. The Saudi plan, supported by Egypt and Syria among others, is based on toughening the terms of inspections and facilitating a gradual relinquishing of power by Iraqi President Saddam Hussein. Recent Arab meetings have been dedicated to fine- tuning this scheme in an attempt to ensure it appeals to both Washington and Baghdad. "The Iraqi president is obviously aware of the ideas being floated but has yet to be formally approached. We cannot do that in the absence of full guarantees that, should he agree to relinquish power in favour of some kind of elected governing board, he will not face charges of crimes against humanity. And it is the Americans that have to give these guarantees," commented one informed source. The Saudis are currently trying to extract the necessary guarantees from the American administration. Meanwhile, contacts are underway with South Africa to allow for the possible mediation of Nelson Mandela. "There are also other ideas related to sending an Arab delegation to Baghdad that would sound out Saddam but nothing is decided yet. The Arab foreign ministers' meeting scheduled at the Cairo headquarters of the Arab League on Sunday will provide an opportunity for Saudis to discuss the next move," said one Arab official, adding that if the Saudi initiative progresses it will be picked up by the Arab summit expected to take place next month. The Saudi initiative has gained momentum by the indirect support provided by the Franco-German position, strongly supported by Russia, on a peaceful settlement to the Iraqi crisis -- a tougher disarmament scheme along with a UN- sponsored change of regime in Iraq under the supervision of a heavy US military presence. While the Franco-German proposals are less dramatic than they have been made to seem in the press, several Arab capitals continue to hope that, combined with the Saudi initiative, they will provide the necessary cover both for Washington and Baghdad to exit the corners in which they have painted themselves. "If the French, Germans and Russians manage to maintain their anti-war positions within the Security Council this will give the Saudis the time and manoeuvering space they have been trying to secure from the Americans to give further momentum to their ideas," argued an Arab diplomatic source. In an attempt to intensify diplomatic pressure Arab states opposed to war are hoping to coordinate their efforts with those European countries that share their reservations. During a joint press conference Arab League Secretary- General Amr Moussa and George Papendrio, foreign minister of Greece, which currently holds the presidency of the European Union, asserted their mutual will to work against war. Papendrio, sources say, is planning to take part in a session of the upcoming Arab foreign ministers' meeting. Meanwhile the world waits for Hans Blix and Mohamed El-Barad'ie's report to the Security Council tomorrow on Iraq's cooperation in meeting the requirements of Resolution 1441. If the senior weapons inspectors present a positive report then Arab and European diplomatic efforts will intensify over the next two weeks so that by 1 March, when the Security Council is scheduled to receive a third report, an offer will already be on the table. At which point Switzerland may well renew its attempts to engineer some last-minute anti-war diplomacy by repeating its offer to bring together US Secretary of State Colin Powell and Iraqi Deputy Prime Minister Tarek Aziz for talks in Geneva.
